by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2009 10:03:00 AM

From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in June, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

"The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 47 percent in June, 3 percentage points higher than the 44 percent registered in May, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month, but at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 7.4 percentage points to 49.8 percent. The New Orders Index increased 4.2 percentage points to 48.6 percent, and the Employment Index increased 4.4 percentage points to 43.4 percent. The Prices Index increased 6.8 percentage points to 53.7 percent in June, indicating an increase in prices paid from May. This is the first time the index has registered above 50 percent since October 2008. According to the NMI, six non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. Respondents' comments continue to be mixed and tend to be industry- and company-specific about business conditions."

The service sector is still contracting but at a slightly slower pace than in May. Not exactly a green shoot.

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2009 09:03:00 AM

From the NY Times: Court Ruling Clears Path for G.M. to Restructure

A federal judge approved a plan by General Motors late on Sunday to sell its best assets to a new, government-backed company ...

In his 95-page opinion, Judge Gerber wrote that he agreed with G.M.’s main contention: that the asset sale was needed to preserve its business in the face of steep losses and government financing that is scheduled to run out by the end of the week.

“Bankruptcy courts have the power to authorize sales of assets at a time when there still is value to preserve — to prevent the death of the patient on the operating table,” Judge Gerber wrote.
...
Other groups, including those representing product liability claims and asbestos litigants, ... fought against G.M.’s plan. Under the terms of the sale, most of those claims would remain with the remnants of G.M. in bankruptcy, meaning they were likely to recover little, if anything.

The ruling is being appealed.

This was quick - GM filed for bankruptcy on June 1st.

by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2009 12:27:00 AM

The scamsters are thriving ...

From Jessica Garrison at the LA Times: In California, mortgage scammers find easy pickings

Maricela Castellanos sat at her desk, the telephone pressed to her ear, a chill running through her body.

A representative from her mortgage company was on the line with troubling information about the loan on Castellanos' Hesperia home.

No one at the company had previously been in contact with her, Castellanos recalled the man saying. The bank had no record of a new loan agreement with her, he said, nor had it received cashier's checks for $2,260 and $1,408.23 she said she had sent.

Castellanos had been a victim of an alleged loan modification swindle -- a financial crime in which scammers pretend to help distressed borrowers renegotiate their mortgages with their banks but instead pocket the money and leave the homeowners in worse straits than before.

Law enforcement officials say the scams are becoming increasingly prevalent, especially in California, where the Department of Real Estate has reported an explosion from 10 open cases a year ago to more than 750 this spring. Nationally, U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric Holder has said that the FBI's "rescue scam" caseload is up 400% from five years ago.

These scamsters pretended to be from Castellanos bank. They offered her an attractive loan modification that lowered her monthly payments, and instructed her to send the payments to a "Payment Processing Department" at a P.O. Box. They even had a 1-800 number. Amazing.

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2009 10:13:00 PM

"There are many voices saying that the worst of the downturn is over, but there is no room for complacency."
...
If we do not take the necessary action now to strengthen the world economy and put in place the conditions for sustainable world growth, we will be confronted with avoidable unemployment for years to come."

Gordon Brown, July 6, 2009

From The Times: Recession may get worse, Gordon Brown warns world leaders

The worst of the recession may be yet to come and world leaders are in danger of hampering the recovery, Gordon Brown will say today.

As he begins a week of meetings with world leaders, the Prime Minister will strike an unexpectedly gloomy note about the prospects of an upturn and will demand that fellow heads of government “sound a second-wake up call for the world economy”.
...
Mr Brown will also say that although public finances need to be sustainable in the long term, “now is not the time for fiscal contraction”.

Maybe Brown was reading Roubini!

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2009 07:03:00 PM

From ABC's This Week, George Stephanopoulos interviews Vice President Joe Biden:

STEPHANOPOULOS: While we've been here, some pretty grim job numbers back at home -- 9.5 percent unemployment in June, the worst numbers in 26 years.

How do you explain that? Because when the president and you all were selling the stimulus package, you predicted at the beginning that, to get this package in place, unemployment will peak at about 8 percent. So, either you misread the economy, or the stimulus package is too slow and to small.

BIDEN: The truth is, we and everyone else misread the economy. The figures we worked off of in January were the consensus figures and most of the blue chip indexes out there.
...
BIDEN: ... So the second question becomes, did the economic package we put in place, including the Recovery Act, is it the right package given the circumstances we're in? And we believe it is the right package given the circumstances we're in.

We misread how bad the economy was, but we are now only about 120 days into the recovery package. The truth of the matter was, no one anticipated, no one expected that that recovery package would in fact be in a position at this point of having to distribute the bulk of money.

STEPHANOPOULOS: No, but a lot of people were saying that you needed to do something bigger and bolder then, including the economist Paul Krugman. He's saying -- right now he's saying the same thing again -- don't wait. You need a second stimulus, you need it now.

BIDEN: Look, what we have to do now is we have to properly, adequately, transparently and effectively spend out the $787 billion.
...
The question is, how do you now -- do we -- what we have to do, George, is we have to, as this rolls out, put more pace on the ball. The second hundred days you're going to see a lot more jobs created.

And the reason you are is now all of these contracts for the over several thousand highway projects that have approved.
...
STEPHANOPOULOS: ? today are going to run out of unemployment in September. That means for a lot of those people, if there is not a second stimulus, they're going to be out in the cold.

BIDEN: Well, look, we have increased the amount of money unemployed -- those on unemployment rolls have gotten, 12 million are getting more money because of the stimulus package.

We've increased the number of people eligible by 2 million people. We've given a tax cut to 95 percent of the people who get a pay stub. They have somewhere -- $60 bucks a month out there that's going into the economy.

There is a lot going on, George. And I think it's premature to make the judgment?

STEPHANOPOULOS: So no second stimulus?

BIDEN: No, I didn't say that. I think it's premature to make that judgment. This was set up to spend out over 18 months. ... And so this is just starting, the pace of the ball is now going to increase.

Here is the January forecast with the BLS reported data ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph compares the BLS reported monthly unemployment rate (in red) with the Obama economic forecast from January 10th: The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan

The Obama administration underestimated the rise in unemployment (so did I last year), so the question is: does this mean a 2nd stimulus plan?

Krugman says don't wait:

But never mind the hoocoodanodes and ayatollahyaseaux. What’s important now is that we don’t compound the understimulus mistake by adopting what Biden seems to be proposing — namely, a wait and see approach. Fiscal stimulus takes time. If we wait to see whether round one did the trick, round two won’t have much chance of doing a lot of good before late 2010 or beyond.

Update: as of June, almost 4.4 million people were unemployed and had exhausted their regular unemployment benefits. Most are now receiving extended benefits, but - at the least - it might be prudent to have additional extended benefits ready to go later this year.