by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 09:00:00 PM

Loudon Wainwright III performs at Madison Square Park in NYC (June 17, 2009)

"Fear Itself"

Repeat: "The Krugman Blues"



*No, I don't think the economy is in a depression ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 05:13:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

These are spot prices for Cushing WTI from the EIA (source).

It is fun to look back ... I started speculating in March '08 about a sharp decline in oil prices in the 2nd half of 2008.

And I posted many times in the late spring about demand destruction (like fewer U.S miles driven), Asian countries reducing gasoline subsidies, China stock piling oil for the Olympics, etc.

But this story was probably the key clue that oil prices were peaking (from June 28, 2008). From the NY Times: Cruise Night, Without the Car

For car-loving American teenagers, this is turning out to be the summer the cruising died.
...
From coast to coast, American teenagers appear to be driving less this summer. Police officers who keep watch on weekend cruising zones say fewer youths are spending their time driving around in circles...

We knew it was almost over when teenagers stopped cruising!

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 01:38:00 PM

From the Telegraph: UK homeowners pay back a record £8.1bn of mortgage debt

Britons injected £8.1bn to pay off their mortgage debt in the first three months of 2009, the Bank of England said on Friday ... The figure compares with a £7.7bn injection in the final three months of 2008 ...

"Sharply falling house prices have made housing equity withdrawal increasingly unattractive, while very tight credit conditions have made it more difficult to carry out the process as well as to take out new mortgages," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight.

"In addition, ever lower savings rates have made it increasingly more attractive for many people to use any spare funds that they have to reduce their mortgages," he added.

This is the fourth consecutive quarter with homeowners reducing their mortgage debt in the U.K..

The following is from the Bank of England: Housing Equity Withdrawal (HEW) Q1 2009

HEW occurs when lending secured on housing increases by more than investment in the housing stocks. Investment comprises new houses, home improvements, transfers of houses between sectors, and house moving costs, such as stamp duty and legal fees (although these fees do not add to the value of the housing stock, they are measured as investment, so reduce the funds available for consumption). So HEW measures mortgage lending that is available for consumption or for investment in financial assets (or to pay off debt).

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 10:39:00 AM

By popular request ...

The FDIC closed seven more banks yesterday, and the following graph shows bank failures by week for 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

So far there have been 52 FDIC bank failures in 2009.

It appears the pace has picked up lately (12 bank closings over the last two weeks).

Note: Week 1 ends Jan 9th.

This is nothing compared to the S&L crisis. There were 28 weeks during the S&L crisis when regulators closed 10 or more banks, and the peak was April 20, 1998 with 60 bank closures (there were 7 separate weeks with more than 30 closures in the late '80s and early '90s).

The second graph covers the entire FDIC period (since 1934).

Back in the '80s, there was some minor multiple counting ... as an example, when First City of Texas failed on Oct 30, 1992 there were 18 different banks closed by the FDIC. This multiple counting was minor, and there were far more bank failures in the late '80s and early '90s than this year.

Of course the number of banks isn't the only measure. Many banks today have more branches, and far more assets and deposits. For a summary by size, see: FDIC Bank Failures: By the Numbers

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 09:40:00 AM

From the NY Times: S.E.C. May Reinstate Rules for Short-Selling Stocks

The Securities and Exchange Commission appears poised to reverse itself and reinstate rules that would make shorting stocks ... somewhat more difficult.

...the most likely outcome may be for the S.E.C. to reinstate ... the uptick rule ...

“I don’t mind what I see as minor inconveniences,” said Whitney Tilson, an author and managing partner of T2 Partners, “if it will get rid of the critics who like to blame short-sellers every time a stock goes down.”

Some people will always blame the short sellers.