by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2009 05:24:00 PM

NOTE: These graphs were correct, but the data was incorrect. The State added a zero to the HELOC data - I'll post corrected charts tomorrow. (ht Armin)

best to all

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2009 02:58:00 PM

The 2009 First Quarter results from the Department of Corporations Survey of Loan Servicers has been released. Historical data is here.

There is a lot of information in this survey: the unpaid balances by loan type, the number of loans by loan type, and modification data.

From Jim Wasserman at the Sacramento Bee: Growing trouble with prime loans (ht Paul)

I was going through the state Department of Corporation's newest quarterly report (Q1-2009) for lenders' loan modification activities and this jumped out at me: The number of workouts initiated for prime loans is rising fast, mirroring rising unemployment in California.

The data come from lenders that report to the state as part of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's Nov. 2007 Subprime agreement. These lenders service about 3.3 million loans in California, about half the state's total.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the number of loan modifications initiated by type (Prime, Alt-A, Subprime). This totals almost 1.5 million loan modifications initiated in California since January 2007 (there are 3.3 million loans including HELOCs) - so there is probably some double counting as modification negotiations are started and stopped.

Modifications for prime loans are surging (and Alt-A is increasing rapidly too). It is possible that subprime peaked during the moratorium period.

The second graph shows loan mods completed by category. The data was only broken out by category starting in Jan 2008.

I expect a surge in prime loan mods completed based on the mods initiated.

Note that completion can mean: account paid current (about 5%), paid-in-full (6%), modified terms (about 60% of completions), short sale (about 11%), deed-in-lieu of foreclosure (few), reductions in principal (few), and other workouts (about 15%).

As an aside, the California website is titled "Subprime". With the surge in prime modifications, I guess we're all subprime now!

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2009 01:11:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Obama Mortgage Refinancing Program May Expand, Lockhart Says

President Barack Obama’s program to help more homeowners refinance may be expanded to include borrowers who owe more than 105 percent of their homes’ values, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.

The Obama administration is considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans with current loan-to-value ratios of 125 percent or higher, Lockhart said at a National Association of Real Estate Editors Association conference in Washington yesterday.

This is part of the Home Affordable program, and only applies to homeowners with loans that Fannie and Freddie holds or guarantees.

As long as this is no cash out, increasing the LTV limit from 105% to 125% just allows Fannie and Freddie to lower the risk on loans they already own or guarantee.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2009 11:04:00 AM

Note: the BLS started keeping state records in 1976, so obviously this doesn't include the Depression.

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Michigan again reported the highest jobless rate, 14.1 percent in May. The states with the next highest rates were Oregon, 12.4 percent; Rhode Island and South Carolina, 12.1 percent each; California, 11.5 percent; Nevada, 11.3 percent; and North Carolina, 11.1 percent. Six additional states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rates of at least 10.0 percent. The California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, and South Carolina rates were the highest on record for those states. Florida, at 10.2 percent, and Georgia, at 9.7 percent, also posted series highs. Nebraska and North Dakota registered the lowest unemployment rates, 4.4 percent each. Overall, 12 states and the District of Columbia had significantly higher jobless rates than the U.S. figure of 9.4 percent, 29 states reported measurably lower rates, and 9 states had rates little different from that of the nation.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2009 10:30:00 AM

Here are some more CRE price declines ...

From Bloomberg: Simon Halabi’s Companies Default on $1.9 Billion Debt (ht Brian)

Billionaire investor Simon Halabi’s real estate companies defaulted on 1.15 billion pounds ($1.9 billion) of bonds backed by nine London office buildings as the recession cut the value of the properties by about 50 percent.
...
The buildings were valued at 929 million pounds as of June 8, down from 1.83 billion pounds in October 2006, Hatfield Philips said. Halabi’s companies borrowed against the buildings in 2006. The debt, which was packaged into bonds, expires in October.

Another 'half off' sale.