by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2009 10:39:00 PM

A couple of videos from the Milken conference. The first one includes Lewis Ranieri, who is generally given significant credit for creating the private MBS market, and has been warning about the MBS market for several years.

Ranieri makes a number of comments on housing starting at 11:50. I disagree with his assertion about prices being near the bottom - although it is probably true in some areas.

The second video is on the Credit Markets (ht Bob_in_MA). He suggests the discussion is interesting near the end when Milken draws parallels to the 1970s:

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2009 07:15:00 PM

From the WSJ: Treasury Sweetens Offer to Lenders In Chrysler Bankruptcy Talks

The U.S. Treasury, in a last-ditch effort to avoid a bankruptcy filing by Chrysler LLC, has sweetened its most recent offer to lenders by $250 million ... Lenders, who had until 6 p.m. to vote on the offer ... were notified at 4:30 via conference call and were sent to a Web site to vote for the deal.

Such a deal can't be approved outside bankruptcy court without 100% consent from lenders....

One reason Chrysler may need to file for bankruptcy is so that Fiat can clear out hundreds of auto dealers from its sales network, which is easier to do in bankruptcy where dealer franchisee agreements can quickly be rejected or amended. The automaker also has asbestos and environmental liabilities which Fiat does not want and are more easily shed in bankruptcy court.
...
Plans were under way for President Barack Obama to deliver a speech about Chrysler on Thursday morning. People who have been briefed on the matter said two versions of the speech were being drafted ...

Down to the last few hours ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2009 05:37:00 PM

From the WaPo: Sources: Chrysler Bankruptcy Plan Would Oust CEO, Install Fiat Management

Chrysler chief executive Robert Nardelli would be replaced by the management of Italian automaker Fiat under a bankruptcy plan that the United States is preparing for the storied automaker...

If the bankruptcy proceeds as expected ... The ownership of the new company would be divided between the union's retiree health fund, which would get a 55 percent stake, Fiat, which would get at least a 35 percent stake, and the United States, which would take an 8 percent stake. The Canadian government would receive two percent.

Chrysler's creditors would get $2 billion in cash and no equity stake. The automaker's current owner Cerberus Capital Management would be wiped out.

The deadline is tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2009 03:55:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Lewis Ranieri Says Housing Is ‘Shouting Distance’ From Bottom

“I’m actually very enthusiastic about housing, and I haven’t said that in five years,’’ Ranieri said, speaking on a panel at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “We’re within shouting distance of a bottom.”

The article says Ranieri was talking about prices, but that isn't clear from the quote. He might be talking about residential investment. Prices will fall further ...

And a look at the markets ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".


Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

The second graph compares four significant bear markets: the Dow during the Great Depression, the NASDAQ, the Nikkei, and the current S&P 500.

See Doug's: "The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped Recoveries".

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2009 02:15:00 PM

From the FOMC:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower. Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment, and staffing. Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments.