by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2009 11:26:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: March 2009

Regional and state unemployment rates were nearly all higher in March. Forty-six states recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, North Dakota and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 3 states had no change in their rate ...

In March, Michigan again reported the highest jobless rate, 12.6 percent. The states with the next highest rates were Oregon, 12.1 percent; South Carolina, 11.4 percent; California, 11.2 percent; North Carolina, 10.8 percent; Rhode Island, 10.5 percent; Nevada, 10.4 percent; and Indiana, 10.0 percent. Nine additional states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rates of at least 9.0 percent. The California and North Carolina rates were the highest on record for those states.
emphasis added, records started in 1976.

Probably more records coming ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2009 09:47:00 AM

First, Citi has committed to "tell the market exactly" the results of the stress tests:

[I]t made sense to delay the launch of the exchange offer until we could tell the market exactly what the results of the stress test are.
Citigroup, April 17, 2009

And from the investor presentation:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Note the rapid rise in card NCLs. NCLs jumped from 8.04% in Q4 to 10.18% in Q1 2009.

Mortgage NCLs are rising sharply too.

The second graph shows the 90+ Days Past Due (DPD) trend for 1st and 2nd mortgages, and the Net Credit Losses.

The 90+ DPD is increasing rapidly for 1st mortgages - jumping from 5.71% in Q4, to 7.15% in Q1 2009.

Credit losses are still rising rapidly at Citi.

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2009 08:32:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Citigroup Profit Exceeds Estimates on Trading, Accounting Rule

Citigroup Inc. [reported] a $1.6 billion profit on trading gains and an accounting benefit for companies in distress.
...
While the bank cut compensation costs and took fewer writedowns, it couldn’t halt rising delinquencies on home and credit-card loans. Citigroup benefited from higher fixed-income trading revenue ...

Citigroup posted a $2.5 billion gain because of an accounting change adopted in 2007. Under the rule, companies are allowed to record any declines in the market value of their own debt as an unrealized gain.

So when do they pay back the TARP money?

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2009 12:31:00 AM

From CNN: Experts: Some foreclosed homes too damaged to sell

"About a third of all of the foreclosed properties nationwide have been so damaged, either by the previous owners or by criminal gangs coming in after the foreclosure, that they no longer qualify for standard mortgage financing," [researcher] Thomas Popik told CNN. "So there is going to be all kinds of government programs to help, but if they don't qualify for standard mortgage financing, there's no one to buy these properties."

Popik says responses from thousands of real estate agents nationwide to the questionnaires he sends out quarterly indicate that badly damaged foreclosed homes ... are a much bigger element of the national housing picture than officials in Washington have acknowledged.

"In many cases, it costs so much to rehabilitate these houses, it's just not cost-effective," he told CNN. "And the properties are eventually going to be bulldozed."

This probably explains some of the "shadow" inventory.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2009 10:25:00 PM

From Bloomberg: U.S. Aims to Release Bank Stress-Test Results May 4 (ht jb)

The Federal Reserve and other regulators aim to release the results of stress tests on 19 of the biggest U.S. banks on May 4, a central bank official said.

Regulators also plan to publish a paper on their methods on April 24, according to the official. The May 4 results will include any plans for boosting capital to weather a deeper economic downturn, the person said.

Procedures for releasing information on specific firms, including whether the banks themselves or the supervisors will release the results, are still under discussion. The Securities and Exchange Commission, which sets rules for what publicly traded companies must disclose to investors about their financial condition, is involved in the talks, the person said.

The goal of publishing the stress-test methods is to bolster credibility of the assessments, which will expose weaker banks and may boost confidence in stronger ones.

A potential capital shortage is a reportable material event and therefore all results must be released for banks requiring additional investment.

May 4th is a Monday ... I wonder if the results will be released pre-market (or even leaked Sunday night).