by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2009 11:49:00 AM

The Dept of Transportation reports on U.S. Traffic Volume Trends:

[T]ravel during January 2009 on all roads and streets in the nation changed by -3.1 percent (-7.0 billion vehicle miles) resulting in estimated travel for the month at 222.4 billion vehicle-miles.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven since 1971.

The second graph shows the annual change in the rolling 12 month average of U.S. vehicles miles driven. Note: the rolling 12 month average is used to remove noise and seasonality.

By this measure, vehicle miles driven are off 3.6% Year-over-year (YoY); the decline in miles driven is worse than during the early '70s and 1979-1980 oil crisis.

As the DOT noted, miles driven in January 2009 were 3.1% less than January 2008.

Even with much lower gasoline prices in January 2009 ($1.84 per gallon) compared to January 2008 ($3.09 per gallon), the total vehicle miles driven is less because of the weaker economy.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2009 10:00:00 AM

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index released today: Business Outlook Survey.

The region's manufacturing sector continued to contract this month, according to firms polled for the March Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained significantly negative. Employment losses were substantial again this month, with over half of the surveyed firms reporting declines. ...

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edged higher, from -41.3 in February to -35.0 this month. Last month's reading was the lowest since October 1990. The index has been negative for 15 of the past 16 months, a period that corresponds to the current recession ...

The current employment index fell for the sixth consecutive month, declining six points, to -52.0, its lowest reading in the history of the survey.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Philly index for the last 40 years.

"The index has been negative for 15 of the past 16 months, a period that corresponds to the current recession ."

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2009 09:19:00 AM

From Reuters: Moody's may cut $241 billion jumbo mortgage debt

... reflecting widening stress in the U.S. housing market, Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said it may downgrade $240.7 billion of securities backed by prime-quality "jumbo" U.S. residential mortgages because defaults will be higher than they expected.
...
It said 70 percent of the 2005 senior securities will likely remain investment-grade, with the rest falling to "junk." Securities issued later may suffer deeper downgrades. Moody's also said subordinated securities from 2006, 2007 and 2008 transactions "will likely be completely written down."

Defaults continue to increase in higher priced areas ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2009 08:32:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending March 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 646,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 658,000. The 4-week moving average was 654,750, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 651,000.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 7 was 5,473,000, an increase of 185,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,288,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows weekly claims and continued claims since 1971.

The four week moving average is at 654,750, the highest since 1982.

Continued claims are now at 5.473 million - the all time record (although not if adjusted by covered employment - I'll post the normalized graph next week).

Another weak employment report ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2009 11:08:00 PM

Sign of the Times. Click on photo for larger image in new window. Credit: Nades. This is on Mission Blvd in Pacific Beach, San Diego.

The big news ... the Fed announced they have "decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months" and also buy more MBS. This is quantitative easing (printing money) ... and this should lead to lower mortgages rates and lower long term rates. I've seen forecasts of 30 year mortgage rates in the 4% to 4.5% range for conforming loans. This will have a some stimulus effect.

The Architecture Billings Index is still near a record low suggesting further weakness in non-residential construction investment later this year.

And here is some more on the two eventual bottoms for housing: the first will be single-family housing starts, new home sales, and residential investment, and the second will be for house prices.

And some futures:

Bloomberg Futures.

CBOT mini-sized Dow

CME Globex Flash Quotes

Futures from barchart.com

And the Asian markets.

And a graph of the Asian markets.

Best to all.