by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2009 04:21:00 PM

While we wait for the FDIC on Friday the 13th ... the S&P 500 is now up 11.8% from the lows. Here are a couple of graphs:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

This is the 2nd worst S&P 500 / DOW bear market in the U.S. in 100 years.

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.



The second graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990.

The dashed line is the closing price today.

The S&P is just above the closing low of last November.

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2009 02:27:00 PM

Another Bank Failure Friday tease ...

BankUnited has apparently halted efforts to find a buyer or raise capital according to TheDeal.com (ht Brian) citing unnamed sources. According to the story, the move suggests the FDIC is preparing to seize BKUNA.

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2009 12:33:00 PM

Since it is Bank Failure Friday, this is just an early tease ...

From the Caribbean Business: FDIC agents here checking several banks (ht David)

Financial Commissioner Alfredo Padilla admitted Friday that some 200 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) agents were in Puerto Rico but said it was not to close a bank but to check several of them.

Padilla said a decision was made to investigate several banks at the same time, which is why so many more agents than usual were in town.

Maybe the FDIC agents just need a vacation.

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2009 11:06:00 AM

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Almost all states are showing declining activity over the last three months.

This is what a widespread recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

On a one month basis, activity decreased in 49 states in January (Louisiana was the one exception). Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for January.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for all 50 states for January 2009. The indexes decreased in 49 states and increased in one, Louisiana, for the month (a one-month diffusion index of -96). For the past three months, the indexes have increased in one state, Wyoming; stayed flat in one state, Louisiana; and decreased in the other 48 states (a three-month diffusion index of -94).

The second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

Last month (December) the number of states with increasing activity was reported as zero, but that has been revised to two. So the current month - with only one state showing increasing activity - is the record for fewest states with increasing activity.

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2009 10:37:00 AM

Note: The Daily Show website is a little slow today (for some reason!)

Here is the full episode.

Here are three short uncensored excerpts (warning: explicit language).

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 1

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

Part II.

Part III.