by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2009 03:00:00 PM

Beige book:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February. Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their regional economies "remained weak." The deterioration was broad based, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions. Looking ahead, contacts from various Districts rate the prospects for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010.

And on real estate:

Residential real estate markets remained in the doldrums in most areas, with only scattered, very tentative signs of stabilization reported. The pace of sales remained very low in most areas and declined further in some; most Districts reported small declines, but New York cited a sales drop of 60 to 65 percent in Manhattan compared with twelve months earlier. By contrast, Cleveland, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco each reported a rising or better-than-expected sales pace for existing or new homes in some areas, attributed largely to falling prices and improved financing terms for some types of home mortgages. House prices continued to decline, reportedly at double-digit paces in some areas, with little or no signs of a deceleration evident. Builders in various Districts generally remain pessimistic regarding recovery prospects this year, and consequently the pace of new home construction declined further in most areas.

Demand for commercial, industrial, and retail space fell further during the reporting period, with some evidence of more rapid deterioration than in preceding periods. Vacancy rates rose and lease rates declined on a widespread basis; New York noted that commercial real estate markets "weakened noticeably," while Atlanta described reports on commercial real estate that were "decidedly more negative" than in previous periods. Construction activity has declined commensurately, and assorted reports suggest that market participants expect this weakness to continue at least through the end of 2009. Cleveland noted that public works projects have shown stability of late, although they declined in the San Francisco District as a result of the budgetary struggles of some state and local governments there. Credit constraints and uncertainty were reported to be a drag on commercial construction and leasing activity in the Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts.
emphasis added

Grim outlook, especially for CRE. (sorry for slow post, I'm on jury duty!)

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2009 11:49:00 AM

I don't have much confidence in the ADP numbers, but here they are anyway ...

From CNBC: ADP Shows Record Job Losses; Planned Layoffs Down

ADP said on Wednesday that private employers cut 697,000 jobs in February versus a revised 614,000 jobs lost in January.

The January job cuts were originally reported at 522,000.

It was the biggest job loss since the report's launch in 2001 ...

And on the Challenger layoff report:

[P]lanned layoffs at U.S. firms fell 23 percent in February from January's seven-year peak, but remained well above long term averages as the protracted U.S. recession took a heavy toll on employment, ...

"The decline in job cuts last month offers some hope that January was the peak and we will now see layoffs begin to fall or at least stabilize," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a statement.

But he said monthly job cuts may remain above 100,000 in the first half of the year and possibly for the rest of 2009.

The consensus for the BLS report on Friday is about 650,000 fewer jobs, but I've seen some forecast much higher (in the 850,000 range). We can be pretty sure the number will be very ugly.

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2009 10:00:00 AM

From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

"The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 41.6 percent in February, 1.3 percentage points lower than the 42.9 percent registered in January, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the fifth consecutive month at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 4 percentage points to 40.2 percent. The New Orders Index decreased 0.9 percentage point to 40.7 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.9 percentage points to 37.3 percent. The Prices Index increased 5.6 percentage points to 48.1 percent in February, indicating a slower decrease in prices from January. According to the NMI, one non-manufacturing industry reported growth in February. Respondents are concerned about the soft market conditions, the negative outlook for employment and the overall state of the economy."

This is another weak report.

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2009 09:24:00 AM

From MarketWatch: Treasury says mortgage plan to help up to 9 mln homeowners

The Treasury Department released guidelines to its mortgage modification plan on Wednesday and said that the program will help up to 9 million homeowners avoid foreclosure. The guidelines will enable servicers to begin modifying mortgages right away ... The Treasury program also includes incentives for removing second liens on loans.

From financialstability.gov (Treasury site):

Summary of Guidelines

Modification Program Guidelines

Counselor Q&A

Fact Sheet

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2009 09:08:00 AM

From Bloomberg: More Than 8.3 Million U.S. Mortgages Are Underwater

More than 8.3 million U.S. mortgage holders owed more on their loans in the fourth quarter than their property was worth as the recession cut home values by $2.4 trillion last year, First American CoreLogic said.

An additional 2.2 million borrowers will be underwater if home prices decline another 5 percent, First American, a Santa Ana, California-based seller of mortgage and economic data, said in a report today. Households with negative equity or near it account for a quarter of all mortgage holders.

Late last year Mark Zandi at Moody's Economy.com estimated that there were "roughly 12 million households, or 16%, owe more than their homes are worth". The difference between the estimates is probably because a large number of homeowners have little equity - and small changes in home price assumptions change the number underwater significantly. The differences in percentages is because CoreLogic is using only households with mortgages; Zandi used all households (about 31% of households have no mortgages).