by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2009 01:29:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Australia’s Dollar Strengthens After Rate Cut, Stimulus Plan

[T]he government said it will spend A$42 billion ($26.7 billion) on grants and infrastructure to counter the impact of the global financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its benchmark rate 1 percentage point to 3.25 percent, two hours after the stimulus package was announced.
...
Australia’s stimulus package includes A$12.7 billion in grants to families and low-income earners and A$28.8 billion for infrastructure. It will help send the nation’s budget into a A$22.5 billion deficit, the first shortfall since fiscal 2001-02.

This is about 4% of GDP, or the equivalent of close to a $600 billion stimulus for the U.S. (as percent of GDP). Although Australia had a housing bubble, they also had a budget surplus and a trade surplus - so I think they are in a stronger position than the U.S. or the U.K.

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2009 09:10:00 PM

This should come as no surprise ...

From Reuters: FDIC seeks to triple Treasury Dept borrowing power

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is seeking to more than triple its credit line with the U.S. Treasury Department to $100 billion ... The FDIC and Congress are working to boost the agency's current $30 billion borrowing power ...

The move comes as the FDIC's deposit insurance fund has shrunk due to a significant uptick in bank failures over the past year. The insurance fund's value dropped 24 percent in the 2008 third quarter to $34.6 billion.
...
"They have no immediate need for it, but they just want to make sure they're not constrained in the decision by a lack of the insurance fund," [U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee] told reporters ...

"No immediate need". Famous last words.

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2009 07:38:00 PM

This is a pretty stunning number ...

From the NY Times: Joblessness Jumps Sharply Among China’s Migrants

About 20 million of the total estimated 130 million migrant workers, whose cheap labor underpins China’s manufacturing sector, have been forced to return to rural areas because of lack of work, according to a survey conducted by the Agriculture Ministry that was cited at a briefing.

In late December, employment officials estimated that at least 10 million migrant workers had lost their jobs in the third quarter of 2008 as waves of factories and businesses shut their doors.

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2009 03:26:00 PM

From the Fed: The January 2009 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

In the January survey, the net fractions of respondents that reported having tightened their lending policies on all major loan categories over the previous three months stayed very elevated. Relative to the October survey, these net fractions generally edged down slightly or remained unchanged. Respondents indicated that demand for loans from both businesses and households continued to weaken, on balance, over the survey period.

In response to the special questions on commercial real estate lending, significant net fractions of both foreign and domestic institutions reported having tightened over the past year all loan policies about which they were queried. At the same time, about 15 percent of domestic banks, on net, indicated that the shutdown of the securitization market for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) since the middle of 2008 has led to an increase in the extension of new commercial real estate loans at their bank.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Of particular interest is the increase in tighter lending standards for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans. This graph compares investment in non-residential structure with the Fed's loan survey results for lending standards (inverted) and CRE loan demand.

Note that any reading below zero for loan demand means less demand than the previous quarter. This is strong evidence of an imminent slump in CRE investment.

More charts here for residential mortgage, consumer loans and C&I.

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2009 02:38:00 PM

Let's start with a stunning graph ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows investment in lodging (based on data from the BEA) as a percent of GDP. The recent boom in lodging investment has been stunning. Lodging investment is now at 0.34% of GDP - an all time high - but all evidence suggests this investment is about to decline sharply.

Note: prior to 1997, the BEA included Lodging in a category with a few other buildings. This earlier data was normalized using 1997 data, and is an approximation.

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) increased slightly in Q4 2008, after peaking in Q4 2007.

This is probably due to builders finishing projects or perhaps the numbers will be revised downwards. But it does appear new mall construction is about to stop.

As David Simon, Chief Executive Officer or Simon Property Group, the largest U.S. shopping mall owner said last week:

"The new development business is dead for a decade. Maybe it’s eight years. Maybe it’s not completely dead. Maybe I’m over-dramatizing it for effect."

The third graph shows office investment as a percent of GDP since 1972. Office investment increased slightly in Q4 2008. With the office vacancy rate rising sharply, office investment will probably decline all this year.

Note: In 1997, the Bureau of Economic Analysis changed the office category. In the earlier years, offices included medical offices. After '97, medical offices were not included (The BEA presented the data both ways in '97).

I expect investment in all three categories - malls, lodging and offices - to decline sharply in 2009.