by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2009 08:47:00 PM

After the excellent stock market returns in January (just kidding - actually the worst January ever), it is probably time to check in on the Four Bad Bear markets ... first, from MarketWatch: U.S. stocks end worst January on record with more losses

The S&P 500 index fell 19 points, or 2.3%, to 825. For the month, the broad index fell 8.6%, its worst performance on record.

Click on graph for updated image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears". There is much more at the site.

Doug has added the market recoveries (light red and green) for the 1970s and early 2000s bear markets.

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2009 08:05:00 PM

This might be interesting. It is on PBS on February 17th (this is a 1 min 22 sec preview):

by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2009 06:30:00 PM

From the FDIC: Bank of Essex, Tappahannock, Virginia, Acquires All the Deposits of Suburban Federal Savings Bank, Crofton, Maryland

Suburban Federal Savings Bank, Crofton, Maryland, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Bank of Essex, Tappahannock, Virginia, to assume all of the deposits of Suburban Federal.
...
As of September 30, 2008, Suburban Federal had total assets of approximately $360 million and total deposits of $302 million. In addition to assuming all of the failed bank's deposits, Bank of Essex agreed to purchase approximately $348 million in assets at a discount of $45 million. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $126 million. Bank of Essex's acquisition of all deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. Suburban Federal is the fifth bank to fail in the nation this year. The last bank to be closed in Maryland was Second National Federal Savings Bank, Salisbury, on December 4, 1992.

And #6 from the FDIC: CenterState Bank Acquires All the Deposits of Ocala National Bank, Ocala, Florida

Ocala National Bank, Ocala, Florida, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with CenterState Bank of Florida, Winter Haven, Florida, to assume all of the deposits of the Ocala National Bank.
...
As of December 31, 2008, Ocala National Bank had total assets of $223.5 million and total deposits of $205.2 million. In addition to assuming all of the failed bank's deposits for a premium of 1.7 percent, CenterState agreed to purchase approximately $23.5 million in assets. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
...
The transaction is the least costly resolution option, and the FDIC estimates the cost to its Deposit Insurance Fund will be $99.6 million. Ocala National is the sixth FDIC-insured institution to be closed this year. Ocala National Bank is the first bank to fail in Florida since Freedom Bank, Bradenton, on October 31, 2008.

Three down today, more to come?

Update: Friday Failure Haiku
Sub Fed Sunk
TodayBank of Essex saves the day
Are there more to come?

Florida bank toast
Ocala, rhymes like Orange?
Asset base has burnt
by Soylent Green is People.

by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2009 05:13:00 PM

Note: DCRogers points out in the comments that this is mostly an Atlanta area bank. From the Atlanta Business Chronicle in Nov 2008: Troubled Magnet Bank looking to raise capital

... a cease-and-desist order jointly issued Oct. 1 by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. ... The Salt Lake City-based bank was founded by an Atlanta investor group and retains much of its operations in Atlanta and Raleigh, N.C., offices. ... Magnet opened in 2005 and grew as home construction lending exploded.

From the FDIC: FDIC Approves the Payout of the Insured Deposits of MagnetBank, Salt Lake City, Utah

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) approved the payout of the insured deposits of MagnetBank, Salt Lake City, Utah. The bank was closed today by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions and the FDIC was named receiver.

After an extensive marketing process, the FDIC was unable to find another financial institution to take over the banking operations of MagnetBank. ...

MagnetBank, as of December 2, 2008, had total assets of $292.9 million and total deposits of $282.8 million. It is estimated that the bank did not have any uninsured funds.
...
MagnetBank is the fourth FDIC-insured institution to fail this year and the first in Utah since Bank of Ephraim, was closed on June 25, 2004.

It is Friday. Probably more to come ...

Update: Friday Failure Haiku

Magnet Bank, Utah
Failure on Friday is here
Their loss is ours now.
by Soylent Green is People.

by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2009 02:55:00 PM

Note: This is a new "record low", but the index has only been compiled since 2002, so this is the first recession for the index.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): Restaurant Industry Outlook Softens as the Restaurant Performance Index Fell to a Record Low in December

The outlook for the restaurant industry continued to weaken in December, as the National Restaurant Association's comprehensive index of restaurant activity fell to another record low. The Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) - a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry - stood at 96.4 in December, down 0.2 percent from November and its 14th consecutive month below 100.

The December decline in the Restaurant Performance Index was the result of a drop in the current situation component. Same-store sales results were the softest in the history of the Restaurant Performance Index, with nearly two-thirds of restaurant operators reporting lower sales in December.
...
Capital spending activity in the restaurant industry deteriorated along with sales and traffic in recent months. Thirty-four percent of operators said they made a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling during the last three months, the lowest level on record.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

The index values above 100 indicate a period of expansion; index values below 100 indicate a period of contraction.

Based on this indicator, the restaurant industry has been contracting since November 2007.