by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2007 11:00:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

Office vacancy rates have spiked in California's Inland Empire and Orange County according to the USC Lusk Center’s Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast.

Jeff Collins at the O.C. Register reports: USC sees vacancies chilling O.C. office rents in ‘08

Construction of new office buildings and layoffs in the financial services and mortgage industries will keep office vacancies high in Orange County through 2008, halting the upward spiral of lease rates, according to the USC Lusk Center’s Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast.

But despite a slight slowdown in sales and rent increases, industrial real estate should remain strong next year, with continued low vacancies, added Delores Conway, director of the Casden Forecast.

Tighter credit, almost no job growth, and falling consumer confidence is leading to a lot of uncertainty, Conway explained. But the slowdown will amount to “a short-term adjustment,” even in the office sector.

Note that the Casden Forecast doesn’t expect a recession next year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2007 09:15:00 AM

From CoStar: TROUBLE IN TEXAS: Huge Multifamily Owner Nears Collapse (hat tip Nick)

MBS Cos., one of the largest multifamily property owners in the country, is delinquent, in default or in danger of becoming so, on more than $900 million in loans.

... if MBS defaults, it ... will ... generate a huge spike up in CMBS delinquencies, expected to be reported this week or next.

PNC Financial Services Group originated almost all of the loans made to MBS Cos., about 90% of MBS's total loan exposure. Most of those loans are no longer on PNC's books because they were off-loaded into commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) ...

As of last month, Smuck-affiliated companies had as many as 65 other loans totaling more than $900 million spread across 36 CMBS deals. Most of the loans were taken out since 2000, some as recently as this year. Nearly two-thirds of those were reported to be at least 30 or more days delinquent ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2007 09:05:00 AM

From MarketWatch: Retail sales rise across the board in November

U.S. retail sales rose sharply in November, pushed higher by rising gasoline prices, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The early Thanksgiving holiday, which allowed for more Christmas shopping, may have played a role in the strong showing.

Auto sales were the only area of weakness in November.

Retail sales rose 1.2% in November after rising 0.2% in October. This is the strongest sales pace since May. Retail sales are up 6.3% in the past 12 months.
...
In a separate report, the Labor Department said producer prices jumped 3.2% in October, the largest since 1973 and the core rate rose 0.4%. See full story.

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2007 07:55:00 PM

Here are the Kennedy-Greenspan estimates (NSA - not seasonally adjusted) of home equity extraction for Q3 2007, provided by Jim Kennedy based on the mortgage system presented in "Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt On One-to-Four-Family Residences," Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy, Federal Reserve Board FEDS working paper no. 2005-41.

Click on graph for larger image.
For Q3 2007, Dr. Kennedy has calculated Net Equity Extraction as $133.0 billion, or 5.2% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). Note that net equity extraction for Q2 2007 has been revised upwards to $159.2 billion.

This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, both in billions of dollars quarterly (not annual rate), and as a percent of personal disposable income. MEW was still strong in Q3 2007, even with tighter lending standards.

As homeowner equity declines sharply in the coming quarters - household real estate equity declined $128 Billion in Q3 - combined with tighter lending standards, equity extraction should decline significantly and impact consumer spending.

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2007 05:22:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Security Capital's AAA Rating May Be Cut by Fitch (hat tip Brian)

Security Capital Assurance Ltd. may lose its AAA credit rating at Fitch Ratings ...

The company's capital is at least $2 billion below what it needs to retain the AAA, Fitch said. SCA has four to six weeks to come up with ``firm capital commitments'' to meet the guidelines, or the rating will fall two levels to AA, Fitch said.
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Security Capital is among seven AAA rated bond insurers that have been probed by Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings for the past month after declines in the credit quality of the securities they guarantee.