by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2007 09:37:00 PM

Here is a letter today from Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England including, a paper titled: Turmoil in Financial Markets: What can Central Banks do?.

Here is the conclusion:

The path ahead is uncertain. There are strong private incentives to market players to recognise early and transparently their exposures to off-balance sheet entities and to accelerate the re-pricing of asset-backed securities. Policy actions must be supportive of this process. Injections of liquidity in normal money market operations against high quality collateral are unlikely by themselves to bring down the LIBOR spreads that reflect a need for banks collectively to finance the expansion of their balance sheets. To do that, general injections of liquidity against a wider range of collateral would be necessary. But unless they were made available at an appropriate penalty rate, they would encourage in future the very risk-taking that has led us to where we are. All central banks are aware that there are circumstances in which action might be necessary to prevent a major shock to the system as a whole. Balancing these considerations will pose considerable challenges, and in present circumstances judging that balance is something we do almost daily.

The key objectives remain, first, the continuous pursuit of the inflation target to maintain economic stability and, second, ensuring that the financial system continues to function effectively, including the proper pricing of risk. If risk continues to be under-priced, the next period of turmoil will be on an even bigger scale. The current turmoil, which has at its heart the earlier under-pricing of risk, has disturbed the unusual serenity of recent years, but, managed properly, it should not threaten our long-run economic stability.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2007 05:40:00 PM

From Law.com: Real Estate Deals Are Feeling the Credit Pinch (hat tip Vader)

The sudden queasiness of lenders has cast a pall over the once-robust real estate market in the last six weeks, [Stephen Cowan, a DLA Piper real estate partner] and other lawyers report. Deals have been interrupted mid-stride. Some have been re-jiggered and others have just died.
...
The up-and-down nature of the real estate practice is nothing new. What is new, lawyers say, is the quickness with which this dip descended.

"I've been through cycles in the '70s, '80s and '90s -- this was a very sudden change," said DLA's Cowan. "It caught everyone off guard -- even though everyone was saying, 'It's coming, it's coming.' It was like an earthquake."

The landscape has shifted. The CRE slump is here.

by Anonymous on 9/12/2007 03:33:00 PM

Normally I see very little point in reading press releases, but this one caught my eye. Worried about lenders using those AVMs to value real estate in mortgage lending transactions? Worry no more! You can now buy a cheap piece of software to "test" the results of your cheap piece of software! It will either still be cheaper than sending an appraiser out to look for foundation cracks, which will mean no one will ever look for foundation cracks, or it will be even more expensive what with running both kinds of software, in which case, we'll pass that "savings" on to you, the consumer, and still not use professional appraisers! You have to love simple solutions to regulatory policy changes.

Is it happy hour yet?

AUSTIN, Texas, Sep 12, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- FirstClose, a service of First Lenders Data, Inc. (FLDI), an Austin, Texas-based provider of bundled mortgage settlement services, announced today that it has developed a comprehensive approach to back-testing Automated Valuation Models (AVMs), entitled ValueTest(TM).

The ValueTest(TM) program is designed to help lenders satisfy recent regulations and guidelines from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the OCC, the NCUA, and other regulatory bodies that have imposed requirements or guidelines on lenders to "back test" AVMs regarding their accuracy. Utilizing a vast array of the mortgage industries top AVM companies and collateral risk assessment tools, ValueTest(TM) provides lenders with a simple, easy, and inexpensive way to satisfy regulatory requirements.

"We are excited about offering an inexpensive, yet comprehensive solution to our mortgage lending customers to help them satisfy regulatory requirements," said Tedd R. Smith, Chief Executive Officer of First Lenders Data, Inc. "Back Testing AVMs has been an ongoing concern of our customers since regulatory inception and no one seems to be able to provide a safe and inexpensive solution until now."

According to Fannie Mae's Perspective on Automated Valuation Models (AVMs), "It is critical that users of AVMs design an appropriate use and implementation strategy that considers the overall credit risk of the loan and reflects the specific strengths and weaknesses of the particular AVMs they use, particularly the property data supporting those products." The ValueTest(TM) program works well for any mortgage lender offering both first and second mortgage loans. As part of quality control checks and balances, the ValueTest(TM) program can be custom designed to fit any lenders needs and requirements.

Oh, the vendor of this wildly exciting product also sells "settlement services," meaning it has a vested interest in seeing to it that closings don't get cancelled because of those pesky "valuation" problems. Surprise! Could that be why this is so "inexpensive," or is it just some PlaySkool My First Laptop-quality version of everyone's favorite game, Regulatory Evasion? Or both?

As soon as I finish development of HorseHockeyTest™, I'm going to quit blogging and get rich. You have been warned.

by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2007 02:12:00 PM

From DataQuick: SoCal home sales at 15-year low, prices edge down

Home sales in Southern California dropped to their lowest level since 1992 as buyers, sellers and lenders held back in an environment of market uncertainty. Prices are off their peak, markedly so in lower cost neighborhoods, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 17,755 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 0.6 percent from 17,867 for the previous month, and down 36.3 percent from 27,857 for August last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Last month's sales were the slowest for any August since 1992, when 16,379 homes sold, the lowest for any August in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The strongest August was in 2003, when 39,562 homes sold. The August sales average is 28,160.

For existing homes August typically has more sales than July, so on a seasonally adjusted basis, this report is worse than it appears.

On prices:

The median price paid for a Southland home was $500,000 last month, down 1.0 percent from $505,000 in July, and up 2.7 percent from $487,000 for August last year.

When adjusted for shifts in market mix (i.e. fewer lower-cost homes selling now), year-over-year price changes went negative in January and are now 3.5 percent below year-ago levels.

On foreclosures:

Foreclosure resales accounted for 8.8 percent of August's sales activity, up from 8.3 percent in July, and up from 2.2 percent in August of last year. Foreclosure resales do not yet have a marketwide effect on prices, although foreclosure discounts appear to be emerging in some local Inland Empire and High Desert markets.

by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2007 01:05:00 PM

From the WSJ on Orange County, CA: Troubled Lenders May Chill Once-Hot Market

The subprime-mortgage industry crisis and Orange County's economic tailspin are likely to have a chilling effect on nearly all types of commercial real estate in this formerly go-go market, some analysts say.

A number of shrinking mortgage companies are already dumping office space on the market. The area's weakening job and housing market will also pinch consumer spending ...

...many office landlords are trying hard to win tenants with deals of free rents and other concessions that have masked the downward pressure ... Asking rents on premium space that now average about $35 a square foot are likely to fall as much as 15% over the next 18 months as building owners face the double whammy of a drop in demand and a surge of new speculative construction coming on line, Mr. Ingham says.

The CRE story: falling demand, rising supply.

In the previous story on shopping centers, Orange County was consider one of the strong areas:

In metropolitan areas with strong population growth, like Phoenix and Orange County, Calif., new shopping centers are easily attracting tenants, according to a report by the CoStar Group, a research company in Bethesda, Md. But new centers in several other metropolitan areas — Memphis, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Tucson, Southwest Florida and Nashville — are having trouble leasing space, CoStar said.

Phoenix and Orange County are the strong areas? Oh my ...