by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2005 05:13:00 PM

The Financial Times reports:

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel that controls 40 per cent of world oil exports, will on Saturday lift a four-decade veil of secrecy and begin regularly to reveal how much oil it is actually pumping.

China and India, the fastest growing major oil consumers, will also supply consumption and storage data for the first time.

The Joint Oil Data Initiative (Jodi), which will be launched on Saturday in Riyadh by energy and finance ministers of the biggest oil producing and consuming countries, will meet a persistent demand of the Group of seven industrialised countries for more transparent energy data.

The price rise of the past three years, which this year saw oil hit nominal highs of $70.85 a barrel, could in part have been avoided by better data, analysts said. It would provide a more accurate basis for industry investment decisions, which in turn help determine long term supplies.

But analysts also suggested that the new database was unlikely to transform the currently unscientific art of guessing world demand and supply into a simple task.

One person close to Saturday's event said that the data would reveal little difference to existing output estimates for some countries including Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer but would show a five to 10 per cent disparity in the production levels of other Opec countries.

Traders said they would have to wait until the numbers came out to know whether they would move the oil price when markets reopen on Monday.

More transparency is a positive for the oil market, but it doesn't appear this will lead to more transparency on reserves - the key to peak oil predictions.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2005 10:15:00 PM

The SF Chronicle on the DataQuick report: Gaming the housing peak

A few added quotes:

"I don't get the feeling that prices have declined," [a potential buyer] said. "Homeowners are seeking prices that are in line with comps (comparable listings) of homes that sold a few months ago.''

John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick, said that is exactly what happens at the end of a real estate cycle. "We always see people trying to game the peak -- trying to get the most for their properties,'' he said.

According to Karevoll, this doesn't indicate a housing bubble about to burst but rather the end of a cycle in which sales will drop off and prices will reach a plateau.

In effect, the market had been robust because house seekers who would have waited to buy purchased this year instead because of low interest rates. "We were stealing (housing activity) from the future,'' he said.

Karevoll now expects a long lull in the market as it stabilizes.

Tapan Munroe, an economist and director for LECG, a worldwide consulting firm, agreed. "Sales are flattening, and prices are also going down a bit, but I doubt very much it is a bursting of a bubble. It's more like a slowdown and a soft landing.''

But Munroe said the situation could change if interest rates were to reach 7 to 8 percent. "That would certainly create a significant slowdown.''

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2005 04:41:00 PM

Reuters reports: Economists say U.S. housing market in downdraft

The U.S. housing market has peaked and a slowdown appears underway after a five-year rally that toppled all construction and sales records and sent home prices soaring, economists said on Thursday.

A string of new economic data from the government and private sector show rising interest rates tugged the reins on housing activity in October and the first part of November.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday both home construction and permits for future building tumbled last month while an industry group said mortgage applications slid last week as rising interest rates dampened home buyers' demand.

Those reports follow a host of data over the past month indicating an increase in the supply of homes for sale, waning demand and some falling prices.

Add to that growing anecdotal evidence that homes are staying on the market longer and buyers are bidding below sellers' asking prices, and it cements an impression that the long-anticipated cooling has begun.

"All of that suggests this is now a buyers' market," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. "It is a big change from a year ago."

But its not all doom and gloom:

"The level of housing activity remains quite solid but we just might be seeing the end of the boom," said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc.
...
"It's not like it's going to be a lousy market for housing next year," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac. "It will just be normal as opposed to these abnormal levels we've seen these last couple years."

But there is concern about the impact on the overall economy:

Softening in the housing market will have a spillover effect on the broad economy and is likely to play a major role in an expected slide in consumer spending in the months ahead.

Real personal consumption expenditures -- about 70 percent of gross domestic product -- are forecast to grow just 2.8 percent next year, slower than this year's 3.5 percent and the smallest increase since 2002, according to the Blue Chip survey of more than 50 top forecasters.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2005 03:16:00 PM

DataQuick reports: Continued sales slowdown in Bay Area, appreciation flat

The number of homes sold in the nine-county Bay Area declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh month in a row in October, the result of rising mortgage interest rates and reduced demand, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 10,508 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the region last month. That was down 6.2 percent from 11,205 for September, and down 6.0 percent from 11,180 for October last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Sales have been lower compared to 2004 every month since April. So far this year 107,099 Bay Area homes have been sold, 5.1 percent fewer than 112,873 for the same ten-month period last year.

"We look at today's market as normalizing. Everybody seems to have gotten used to the records set last year and the year before. The fact is that last month was the third-strongest October since we started keeping records in 1988. It was about twenty percent above average," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $614,000 last month. That was down 0.3 percent from $616,000 in September, and up 17.2 percent from $524,000 for October a year ago. Annual price increases so far this year have ranged from 17.2 percent to 20.5 percent.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2005 10:32:00 AM

The Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles reported mixed import traffic for October.

Import traffic at the Port of Long Beach decreased 4.5% compared to September. A total of 299 thousand loaded cargo containers came into the Port of Long Beach, compared to 313.5 thousand in September.

The Port of Los Angeles import traffic increased 5% in October. Imports were 368.8 thousand containers, setting a new all time record for the Port of Los Angeles.

For both ports, outbound traffic recovered from the September slump. For Long Beach, outbound traffic was up 6.6% to 103 thousand containers. At Los Angeles, outbound traffic was up 5.5% to 98 thousand containers.

The quantity of containers says nothing about the content value, but provides a rough guide on imports from China and the rest of Asia. Given these numbers, I expect imports from Asia to be about the same in October as in September.