by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2005 05:52:00 PM

Here are a few quotes from Warren Buffett and Charles Munger from the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting:

Buffett: "A lot of the psychological well-being of the American public comes from how well they've done with their houses over the years. If indeed there's been a bubble, and it's pricked at some point, the net effect on Berkshire might well be positive [because the company's financial strength would allow it to buy real-estate-related businesses at bargain prices]....

"Certainly at the high end of the real estate market in some areas, you've seen extraordinary movement.... People go crazy in economics periodically, in all kinds of ways. Residential housing has different behavioral characteristics, simply because people live there. But when you get prices increasing faster than than the underlying costs, sometimes there can be pretty serious consequences."

Munger: "You have a real asset-price bubble in places like parts of California and the suburbs of Washington, DC. "

And on the Trade Deficit:

Buffet: "It seems to me that a $618 billion trade deficit, rich as we are, strong as this country is, well, something will have to happen that will change that. Most economists will still say some kind of soft landing is possible. I don't know what a soft landing is exactly, in how the numbers come down softly from levels like these...."

Munger: "The present era has no comparable referent in the past history of capitalism. We have a higher percentage of the intelligentsia engaged in buying and selling pieces of paper and promoting trading activity than in any past era. A lot of what I see now reminds me of Sodom and Gomorrah. You get activity feeding on itself, envy and imitation. It has happened in the past that there came bad consequences."

Buffett: "I have no idea on timing. It's far easier to tell what will happen than when it will happen. I would say that what is going on in terms of trade policy is going to have very important consequences. "

Munger: "A great civilization will bear a lot of abuse, but there are dangers in the current situation that threaten anyone who swings for the fences."

Buffett to Munger: "What do you think the end will be?"

Munger: "Bad."

Read the article for more quotes on other subjects.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2005 06:35:00 PM

Reviewing the first quarter 2005 (advance) GDP report, the first unusual item was inventories. Kash covered inventories in "Changes in Inventories".

Trade

UPDATE: All numbers are seasonally adjusted from the advance GDP report and the Trade report. So these numbers are correct. However, my calculation of $4.5 Billion in additional oil imports is not seasonally adjusted (I noted this in my previous post) so this might be a little less after adjustment.

But another area for concern is the balance of trade. The following table includes the reported trade balance, export and imports, for January and February and the projected numbers for March according to the GDP report.

Monthly Trade Balance (Billions)

	Trade	Exports	Imports
	Balance
January	-$58.5	$100.4	$158.9
February	-$61.0	$100.5	$161.5
March (est. from GDP)	-$59.9	$110.3	$170.1
Q1 TOTAL	-$179.4	$311.2	$490.6

Numbers rounded, might not add.

We already know the dollar value of oil imports surged in March, probably adding another $4.5 Billion to imports. Therefore imports of $170 Billion is very possible. But why does the BEA expect exports to surge? The global slowdown is impacting other countries more than the US, so we might expect exports to be flat.

I expect the March trade deficit (due May 11) to be worse than the BEA estimate and to negatively impact GDP (preliminary) due on May 26th. Other factors may lead to a positive GDP revision.

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2005 01:29:00 AM

In a four post series (1, 2, 3, 4) , Dr. Altig defends the Federal Reserve against Stephen Roach's most recent Fed bashing piece: "Original Sin".

Stripping aside Roach's hyperbole, I believe Roach makes three arguments:
1) that recent growth in the US economy has resulted from borrowing against inflated assets leading to "imbalances and distortions";
2) the FED should consider asset prices when setting interest rates and
3) that FED officials have made some irresponsible comments in recent years.

On the first point, I mostly agree with Roach. In my mind there is no question that the US has been buying growth with debt, both public (general fund deficit) and private (mortgage equity withdrawal).

On the second point, I believe the FED should not consider asset prices when setting interest rates, so I disagree with Roach. Much of Roach's scathing commentary is based on his belief that the FED should target asset prices.

And on the third point, I generally agree with macroblog that FED officials have, with the exception of Mr. Greenspan, been responsible in their comments, especially in recent months. I believe Chairman Greenspan has made several irresponsible and inaccurate comments when speaking for himself.

Perhaps the FED could have spoken out sooner on certain issues, like the general fund deficit and the housing bubble. As Dr. Thoma wrote in the macroblog comments concerning the 'behavior of congress over the deficit/trust fund':

"... watching out for the public interest is an important role of the Fed, but that's not something the Fed had direct control over and other than publicly denouncing such policy, they have little choice but to do their best in spite of poor policy elsewhere in government."

In my view Roach's anger is misdirected. Although I agree with Roach's general economic assessment, I believe the problems are primarily due to poor fiscal and public policy.

by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2005 12:45:00 AM

UPDATE: The Economist (on Germany): If not now, when?

Germany:

NYTimes: Fears Mount That Germany Faces Recession

Financial Times: German business data add to eurozone gloom

Japan:

Bloomberg: Japan's Household Spending Falls; Economy Sheds Jobs

Financial Times: Japanese economy stuck in deflation

And the really dark side ...

$100 (US) oil, major recession seen as likely
Conference told of imminent price shocks as world demand rises while reserves fall

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2005 08:21:00 PM

Here is a graph of actual monthly New Home Sales for the last 3 years.


Click on graph for larger image.

March is usually one of the strongest months of the year, and for March 2005, sales were a monthly record of 144 thousand units.

Interestingly the median sales price dropped significantly in March. The reason probably is due to the surge in sales in the South. Over half the sales in March (73 thousand) occured in the South (the Census bureau segments the data into four regions). The previous record for the South was 59 thousand last March.

So sales in the South increased 23% from last March, but only 10% over the other three regions.