by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in September 2025

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain for September, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month.

• Inflation outpaced home prices for a fourth straight month, with September’s CPI running 1.7 percentage points above housing appreciation—the widest gap since the measures began diverging in June.

• All 20 metros recorded month-over-month declines before seasonal adjustment in September, underscoring broad-based weakening as elevated mortgage rates weigh on affordability and demand.

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the September 2025 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices.

Please note that September 2025 transaction records for Wayne County, MI, are delayed at the local recording office. Since Wayne is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, Cotality is not able to generate a valid September 2025 update of the Detroit S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index before the November 25, 2025, release date. ...

"The housing market's deceleration accelerated in September, with the National Composite posting just a 1.3% annual gain—the weakest performance since mid-2023,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This marks a continued slide from August’s 1.4% increase and represents a stark contrast to the double-digit gains that characterized the early post-pandemic era. National home prices continued trailing inflation, with September’s CPI running 1.7 percentage points ahead of housing appreciation. This marks the widest gap between inflation and home-price growth since the two measures diverged in June, with the spread continuing to widen each month.

“Regional performance reveals a tale of two markets. Chicago continues to lead with a 5.5% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. These Northeastern and Midwestern metros have sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften. At the opposite extreme, Tampa posted a 4.1% annual decline—the sharpest drop among tracked metros and its 11th consecutive month of negative annual returns. Phoenix (-2.0%), Dallas (-1.3%), and Miami (-1.3%) likewise remained in negative territory, highlighting particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges.
...
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.3% annual gain for September, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.0%, down from a 2.1% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, down from a 1.6% increase in the previous month.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices continued to report negative month-over-month changes in September, posting -0.3% for the U.S. National Index and -0.5% for both the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National and 10-City Composite Indices reported a monthly increase of 0.2% and the 20-City Composite Indices posted a month-over-month gain of 0.1%. emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.2% in September (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.1% (SA) in September.

The National index was up 0.2% (SA) in September.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.0% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.4% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.3% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were below expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 08:08:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for October.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 04:29:00 PM

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 10.6 Percent

Personal and business bankruptcy filings increased 10.6 percent in the twelve-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, compared with the previous year.

According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 557,376 in the year ending September 2025, compared with 504,112 cases in the previous year.

Business filings rose 5.6 percent, from 22,762 to 24,039 in the year ending Sept. 30, 2025. Non-business bankruptcy filings increased 10.8 percent to 533,337, compared with 481,350 in the previous year.

Still fairly low.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 12:02:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

Excerpt:

“All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

Maybe we could say that all housing booms look alike, but every down cycle is “unhappy in its own way.”

In March 2022, I wrote Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust. Instead, I suggested a more similar period was the late ‘70s to early ‘80s.

It is natural to compare the current housing boom to the mid-00s housing bubble. The bubble and subsequent bust are part of our collective memories. And graphs of nominal house prices and price-to-rent ratios look eerily similar to the housing bubble.

However, there are significant differences. First, lending has been reasonably solid during the current boom, whereas in the mid-00s, underwriting standards were almost non-existent (“fog a mirror, get a loan”). And demographics are much more favorable today than in the mid-00s.

A much more similar period to today is the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. House prices were increasing sharply. Demographics were very favorable for homebuying as the baby boomers moved into the first-time homebuying age group (similar to the millennials now). And inflation picked up from an already elevated level due to the second oil embargo in 1979, followed by the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, driving up costs.

Sure enough, there hasn’t been a national crash in house prices. However, although there are similarities to the late ‘70s / early ‘80s period, there also significant differences. The most obvious difference is the sharp slowdown in population growth and immigration. The population and workforce were expanding sharply in the early ‘80s.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 15.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.3%), and down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.3%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 21st, inventory was at 830 thousand (7-day average), compared to 840 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2025 06:14:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 23, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 41 and DOW futures are up 215 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.06 per barrel and Brent at $62.56 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $72, and Brent was at $76 - so WTI oil prices are down about 19% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.07 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.03 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2025 09:28:00 AM

This is something I check occasionally.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.0% (+5.4 billion vehicle miles) for September 2025 as compared with September 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 278.3 billion vehicle miles.

The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for September 2025 is 277.1 billion miles, a +1.9% ( 5.0 billion vehicle miles) change over September 2024. It also represents a 0.2% change (0.6 billion vehicle miles) compared with August 2025.

Cumulative Travel for 2025 changed by +1.0% (+25.1 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 2,492.0 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.

Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020 and really collapsed in April 2020.  

Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2025 02:14:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

• California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2025 08:11:00 AM

Happy Thanksgiving!

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.  Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week.

The key reports this week include the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, September New Home Sales and Retail Sales.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and September Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE).


----- Monday, November 24th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Tuesday, November 25th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 1.5% YoY in August and is expected to increase about the same in September.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 26th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2025.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. 

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, November 27th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 28th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 11:56:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, a slight decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent. [November 21st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 08:18:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Nov. 15, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 12.6% year-over-year, as the streak of annual gains stretched past two years in length. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 29th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing due to both new listings hitting the market, but mostly listings taking longer to sell in this weak 2025 sales year.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.7% year over year

New listings edged up on an annual basis, the second straight week of gains and a return to more typical levels after last week’s surge. Mortgage rates held in the low 6.2s range last week the low-6% range, which may be enticing some homeowners to make a move.

• The median listing price fell 0.4% year-over-year

he median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 1.0% year-over-year, dropping for the 11th consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:17:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 02:42:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 15 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 15 November. ...

9-15 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 60.9% (-4.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.41 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$93.97 (-4.6%)

The Veteran’s Day calendar shift drove a double-digit decline in group demand, resulting in lower performance levels across the U.S.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 11:02:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 1.7% year-over-year compared to October 2024. The last 2 months of 2025 will have more difficult year-over-year comparisons.
...
Year-to-date, sales are essentially unchanged compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995! Sales this year will be close to last year.

Will this be the lowest level of sales in 30 years?

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October

Month-over-month

• 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October

• 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.7% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (4.10 million SAAR) were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 1.7% compared to the October 2024 sales rate.  

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.52 million in October from 1.53 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 10.9% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.4 months in October from 4.5 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:55:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's average.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,250.

The graph includes all the missing weeks while the government was shutdown.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 119 thousand in September.  Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 22 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 35 thousand).

Payrolls for July and August were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy lost jobs in both June and August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 1.31 million jobs.  

Year-over-year employment growth is slowing sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% in September, from 62.3% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was increased to 59.7% from 59.6% in August (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.

This was above consensus expectations, however, July and August payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined.  

Overall another weak report.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 09:06:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 05:05:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI October 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms

The ABI score of 47.6 for October indicates that fewer firms reported declining billings this month than in September, when the score was 43.3. In addition, inquiries into new projects increased significantly this month, with the largest share of firms in a year and a half reporting an increase. On the other hand, the value of newly signed design contracts decreased yet again, as projects remain smaller and clients remain hesitant to commit.

Billings softened at firms in all regions of the country in October, except for those in the Midwest, where they were essentially flat for the second consecutive month. Business conditions remained softest at firms located in the West, while the pace of the decline in billings held steady at firms located in the Northeast. Firms located in the South saw conditions weaken further this month, after approaching growth over the summer. The billings decline also accelerated this month at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year after approaching growth in the third quarter. And conditions remain soft overall at firms with institutional and multifamily residential specializations.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (45.1); Midwest (49.6); South (45.3); West (42.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.6); institutional (46.3); multifamily residential (46.8)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.6 in October, up from 43.3 in September.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 35 of the last 37 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 02:53:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in October, up 0.7% from September’s preliminary pace and up 1.5% last October’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report October existing home sales on Thursday. The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

There is also a discussion of R* in the article.