by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2025 12:17:00 PM

I've been tracking the weak hotel occupancy numbers in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Canadian hotels are reporting strong numbers!

From CoStar: Canadian travelers push their home and native land to record summer highs

Canada's hotel performance this summer has been historically strong, with August bringing in the highest occupancy for any month since August of 2014.

That same month, revenue per available room has reached over 200 Canadian dollars ($139.92 U.S. dollars) for the first time ever, according to CoStar data.

Canadian hoteliers can credit, in part, the increased animosity toward the United States due to President Donald Trump's trade policies that's led to more Canadians choosing not to visit or financially benefit their neighbor to the south.

"In July, rooms sold is up almost 4% compared to the same time last year — it's up 3.7% — and I think that is a clear indicator that the 'buy Canadian' sentiment translates into 'stay Canadian' as well, and that the Canadian leisure traveler is voting with their wallet and saying, 'Well, I want to go somewhere, so let me just stay within the country,'" said Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality market analytics for CoStar.

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2025 08:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand

A brief excerpt:

In 2021, we saw rapidly rising home prices and rents indicating strong demand for both owner occupied and rental units. This suggested a sharp increase in household formation.

Subsequent research indicated this was correct.

If we look at the Historical Households Tables (based on the Current Population Survey), we see that from 2010 to 2019, about 1.1 million additional households were formed each year. However, in 2020 due to the pandemic, the number of households declined by over 100 thousand.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 07:17:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New Week

After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday's Fed announcement. While the Fed cut rates as expected, and while the Fed's rate forecasts were well-received, Powell's guidance pushed back in the other direction. Economic data on Thursday morning made things worse making for a fairly sharp 2-day spike.

Things calmed down after that. Friday's rates were a hair lower and now today's rates are right in line with Friday's. In other words, the volatile reaction to last week's Fed announcement is over and the market is waiting for the next source of inspiration.

The most prevalent top tier 30yr fixed rate is now closest to 6.375% after briefly hitting 6.125% last week. [30 year fixed 6.35%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for September.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 01:01:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 3.98 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in August 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report August sales of 3.90 million SAAR.

California reports Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales and some measures of inventory whereas most of the local is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales rebound in August as lower rates lift demand, C.A.R. says

August home sales activity edged up 0.9 percent from the 261,820 homes sold in July and slipped 0.2 percent from a year ago, when 264,640 homes were sold on an annualized basis. August’s sales level remained slightly below last year’s revised level and marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines. ...

This is in line with national sales being mostly unchanged year-over-year.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 10:58:00 AM

First, shutdowns are expensive, and many government employees continue to work (like the military), but don't get paid. In the past, all employees who didn't work were paid in full.

Second, there will be an impact on GDP. Depending on the length of the shutdown, this will negatively impact GDP in Q4.

Third, we will be flying mostly blind without reports on employment, inflation, housing starts and more.  However, there will be some private data to fill the gap.  

Fourth, for housing, depending on the length of the shutdown, the impact would be on existing home closings in October. If the shutdown lasts for the entire month, I'd expect about a 10% decline in seasonally adjusted sales in October. If the shutdown only lasts a couple of weeks, there would probably be little impact. Some issues could be Tax transcripts, Flood Certs, and SS# Authorization.

Also, a shutdown increases uncertainty, and that might push up mortgage rates (investors hate uncertainty).

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 29.0% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 20.5%), and down 9.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.8%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of September 19th, inventory was at 863 thousand (7-day average), compared to 860 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2025 06:23:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of September 12, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 7 and DOW futures are down 56 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $62.68 per barrel and Brent at $66.68 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $76 - so WTI oil prices are down about 14% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.14 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.19 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2025 09:55:00 AM

This is something I check occasionally.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.7% (+4.9 billion vehicle miles) for July 2025 as compared with July 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 296.0 billion vehicle miles.

The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for July 2025 is 276.6 billion miles, a +1.6% ( 4.4 billion vehicle miles) change over July 2024. It also represents a 0.5% change (1.5 billion vehicle miles) compared with June 2025.

Cumulative Travel for 2025 changed by +0.9% (+17.1 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 1,919.0 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.

Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020 and really collapsed in April 2020.  

Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August

• Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are August New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q2 GDP, and Personal Income and Outlays for August.

For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, September 22nd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, September 23rd -----
10:00 AM: the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for September.

----- Wednesday, September 24th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 653 thousand SAAR, up from 652 thousand in July.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, September 25th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 234 thousand from 231 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of 3.3%.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.98 million SAAR, down from 4.01 million in July.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report August sales of 3.93 million SAAR.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September. 

----- Friday, September 26th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 55.4.

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2025 12:38:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 3.98 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in August 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report August sales of 3.90 million SAAR.

August sales will be mostly for contracts signed in June and July, and mortgage rates averaged 6.82% in June and 6.72% in July (somewhat lower than for closed sales in July).

In August, sales in these early reporting markets were down 2.2% YoY. Last month, in July, these same markets were down 0.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2025 11:01:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking moved up to 2.1% q/q saar from 1.7% & 2Q GDP is up two-tenths to 3.4%. [September 19th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +1.3%. [September 17th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.3 percent on September 17, down from 3.4 percent on September 16. After this morning’s housing starts release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -4.6 percent to -6.3 percent. [September 17th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2025 08:11:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For August, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 20.9% YoY, but still down 14.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Sept. 13

• Active inventory climbed 17.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 17.6% year over year, easing slightly compared to the previous week for the 13th consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 97th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 20th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 2.1% year over year

New listings rose 2.1% last week compared with the same period last year. This is an increase from the previous week, though the number of new listings remains below the spring and early summer norm. Homeowners are less eager to get into the market as inventory continues to build and buyers keep to the sidelines.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, we also see price per square foot fall year over year for the second consecutive week. Price per square foot had been growing steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and stalled out this metric, suggesting underlying home values are starting to soften.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 07:25:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2025

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 02:50:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 September

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 September. ...

7-13 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.4% (-1.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.71 (+0.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$106.43 (-1.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 10:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.90 million in August, down 2.7% from July’s preliminary pace and down 0.8% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this August’s lower business day count compared to last August’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. Last year, the NAR reported sales in August 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

There is also an update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 263,000 to 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 240,500 to 240,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 240,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 08:18:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 240 thousand from 237 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 2.5, up from 0.0.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 04:01:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were down 2% YoY in August, and exports were down 1% YoY.    

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 0.2% in August compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   

Outbound traffic decreased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

This is the 9th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 02:08:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  

Since the last projections were released, economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation all have been close to expectations.

The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.4% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 2%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 1.6% annualized - above the top of end of the June projections.  The FOMC revised up Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 GDP growth slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	1.4 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0
Jun 2025	1.2 to 1.5	1.5 to 1.8	1.7 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in August.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year.  This was unrevised.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.4 to 4.5	4.2 to 4.4
Jun 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.3 to 4.6	4.2 to 4.6

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.6% YoY in June. There will likely be some further increases in the 2nd half of 2025, and the FOMC narrowed the range.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.8 to 3.2	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation increased 2.9% YoY in July, up from 2.8% YoY in June.  There will likely be further increase in core PCE inflation and the FOMC narrowed the range.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	3.0 to 3.2	2.5-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.9 to 3.4	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2