by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 32.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  

Usually, inventory is up about 18% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 33.1% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 32.2%), and down 12.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 13.0%). 

This is the highest level since 2019.

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of June 13th, inventory was at 826 thousand (7-day average), compared to 809 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2025 06:24:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 17 and DOW futures are down 134 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $75.49 per barrel and Brent at $76.72 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are down about 4% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.43 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.34 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2025 09:31:00 AM

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the July meeting, with the next rate cut in September, and a second rate cut in December.

From BofA:

The Fed has made it clear that the policy rate will remain unchanged at its June meeting. We expect the FOMC to make some changes to the language around uncertainty in the statement. The May statement said that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”. Given the 115pp reduction in bilateral US-China tariffs on May 12, we think a more appropriate characterization could be: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”.

Per the usual, markets will be focused on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The March SEP was pre-“Liberation Day”. Therefore, meaningful revisions to the 2025 forecasts are likely. However, we think there is too much uncertainty around policy along multiple dimensions (most notably trade and fiscal) for the Fed to do a wholesale reassessment of its views. So we think the forecasts for 2026 and beyond will remain largely unchanged.
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We are not making any changes to our Fed forecast and continue to expect the first of three normalization cuts in December, followed by two more in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%. An earlier cut is possible if the economy deteriorates more than we expect or if inflation continues to surprise to the downside, but we think that the peak summer tariff effects on the monthly inflation prints will most likely be too fresh for the FOMC to cut before December.

Projections will be released at this meeting. For review, here are the March projections.  

The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate is now at 4.0% at the end of 2025 (3.9%-4.4%) and the long run range is 2.6% to 3.6%.   This is fewer rate cuts than market participants expect.

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been below expectations (but distorted), the unemployment rate was close to expectations, and inflation at expectations.

The BEA's advance estimate for Q1 GDP showed real growth at -0.2% annualized. There is a wide range of estimates for Q2 GDP, but it is forecast to be over 3.0% (as Q1 distortions reverse).  That would put real growth on pace to be in the range of the March FOMC projections for Q4 over Q4.  

However, Q2, Q3 and Q4 all saw solid growth last year - and we haven't seen the impact of policy changes on hard data yet - so there is still significant uncertainty about the economy this year.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	1.5 to 1.9	1.6 to 1.9	1.6 to 2.0
Dec 2024	1.8 to 2.2	1.9 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in May after averaging 4.1% for Q1.  The forecast for the Q4 unemployment rate is likely low.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	4.3 to 4.4	4.2 to 4.5	4.1 to 4.4
Dec 2024	4.2 to 4.5	4.1 to 4.4	4.0 to 4.4

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of April 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY). There will likely be some increase in PCE inflation from policy, but this appears to in the forecast range.

Without policy changes (tariffs) it appears inflation would be well below the FOMC forecast!

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	2.6 to 2.9	2.1 to 2.3	2.0 to 2.1
Dec 2024	2.3 to 2.6	2.0-2.2	2.0

PCE core inflation increased 2.5 percent YoY in April.  This is in the range of FOMC projections for Q4.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	2.7 to 3.0	2.1 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.1
Dec 2024	2.5 to 2.7	2.0-2.3	2.0

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

• The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are May Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged.

----- Monday, June 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2.

----- Tuesday, June 17th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). 

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.7%.

10:00 AM: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, up from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, June 18th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 250 thousand, up from 248 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for May.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.370 million SAAR, up from 1.361 million SAAR in April.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Statement. The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Projections This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, June 19th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day

----- Friday, June 20th -----
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -4.0 last month.

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	208✅	255	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2024 (previous pandemic low of 314 deaths), I continued to post since deaths moved above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are below the goal for a couple more weeks.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of June 12th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is below the lows of May 2024.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Very Low".

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 02:33:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million in May, up 0.75% from April’s preliminary pace and down 0.74%% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat larger YOY % decline, reflecting this May’s lower business day count relative to last May’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by just 1.0% from a year earlier. By region SF median sales prices should be virtually flat from a year ago in the West, down by about 1% in the South, up about 4% in the Midwest, and up about 5% in the Northeast.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release May Existing Home sales on Monday, June 23rd at 10:00 AM. Last year, the NAR reported sales in May 2024 at 4.06 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 02:09:00 PM

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.

The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.

The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).

Click on graph for larger image.

The number of salesperson's licenses started increasing again in 2014 (after house prices bottomed), and peaked again in early 2024 (ignoring weird pandemic distortion).

The number of salesperson's licenses is down 1.4% year-over-year. 

Brokers' licenses are off 21% from the peak and are still slowly declining (down 2.3% year-over-year).

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 11:11:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.7% q/q saar and 1Q GDP is down one-tenth to -0.1% q/q saar. [June 13th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

The details of the trade balance report indicated that April exports were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +3.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and left our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at -0.5%. [June 5th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 9, unchanged from June 5 after rounding. [June 9th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 08:17:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 7, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 27.7% year over year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 27.7% higher than this time last year. This represents the 83rd consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the sixth week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since December 2019.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 5.2% year over year

New listings rose again last week on an annual basis, up 5.2% compared with the same period last year, a slightly faster growth compared with the previous week. The momentum that began earlier this spring remains strong ...

• The median list price was up 0.5% year over year

The median list price increased 0.5% year over year this week as elevated prices persist into the summer. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.8% year over year.

With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (excluding start of pandemic) putting downward pressure on house prices in certain areas.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 08:37:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for June).

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 04:00:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 June

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 June. ...

1-7 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 67.0% (-3.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.57 (0.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.23 (-3.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase with the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 12:59:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q1 2025, mortgage debt increased $45 billion, down from $112 billion in Q4. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 12:00:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $169.3 trillion during the first quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $2.3 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.2 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  

Net worth decreased $1.6 trillion in Q1.  As a percent of GDP, net worth decreased in Q1 and is below the peak in 2021.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q1 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 72.0% - down from 72.2% in Q4, 2024

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $45 billion in Q1.

Mortgage debt is up $2.78 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 44.8% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q1 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,000 to 235,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 07:37:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 239 thousand, up from 247 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 12:00 PM, Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 01:00:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

I’ve rearranged these looks at local data with closed sales first, new listings second and active inventory at the end.

I’ve also spelled Raleigh correctly!
...
In May, sales in these early reporting markets were down 3.9% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 11:22:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (unchanged from 3.5% YoY in April), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (unchanged from 3.0%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.8% (unchanged from 2.8%). 

Core PCE is for April was up 2.5% YoY, down from 2.7% in March.  

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 08:53:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.5% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2025.

Services were up 3.7% YoY as of May 2025, unchanged from 3.7% YoY in April.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in May, up from 3.3% YoY in April.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were unchanged YoY as of May 2025, up from -0.4% YoY in April.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.3% YoY in May, up from 0.2% YoY in April.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through May) and housing from the PCE report (through April)

Shelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.0% in April. Housing (PCE) was up 4.2% YoY in April, down from 4.3% in March.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% YoY in May.  This key measure has been at or below the Fed's target for 9 of the last 13 months.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in May and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.3 percent as both of its major components, the index for food at home and the index for food away from home also rose 0.3 percent in May. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.0 percent in May as the gasoline index fell over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.2-percent increase in April. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, personal care, and education. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in May.

The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was slightly below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.