by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2025 09:52:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year in March

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.30% (a -3.5% annual rate), This was the first MoM decrease since January 2023.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 6 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 6.3% from the recent peak, Tampa is down 2.6% from the peak, and Denver down 1.9%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.4% Annual Gain in March 2025

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual return for March, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8%, down from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8% increase in March, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.5% and 5.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices saw slight upward trends in March, posting gains of 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index recorded a 0.01% increase and the 20-City Composite Index presented a -0.1% decrease.

“Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery. Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.01% in March (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.1% (SA) in March.

The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in March.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 4.8% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 4.1% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 3.4% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were lower than expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 06:48:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of May 25, 2025

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 7.8% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.  The consensus is for the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index to increase 4.5% YoY, unchanged from 4.5% YoY in February.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 63 and DOW futures are up 402 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.46 per barrel and Brent at $64.72 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $78, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 21% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.13 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.56 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.43 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 12:44:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in April.

There were several key stories for April:

• Sales NSA are down YoY through April, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! Ouch.

• Sales SA were down YoY for the 3rd consecutive month and 40 of the last 44 months.

• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (excluding one month near the start of the pandemic).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.

Sales at 4.00 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were below the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was very close (as usual).

Sales averaged close to 5.4 million SAAR for the month of April in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.

Also, months-of-supply for April was above pre-pandemic levels for the period 2017-2019 and the highest for April since 2016.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase over the next few months.

Months in red are areas that are seeing 5+ months of supply now and might see price pressures later this summer.
...
More local data coming in June for activity in May!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 10:29:00 AM

Memorial Day is about remembering those that in the words of Abraham Lincoln, “gave the last full measure of devotion” in defending our nation so “that this government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”.

Today I’m thinking of my distant relative, James Hoey (Jan 14, 1842 – Aug 13, 1864) who fought for the Union during the Civil War and gave the ultimate sacrifice at the age of 22. Thank you, James!

My family has fought in every major American war. For example, my 4th Great Grandfather, William Marks (1749 – 1824) fought in the revolutionary war. His son, my 3rd Great Grandfather, William Marks, Jr. was a Brigadier General during the war of 1812 – and went on the serve as a U.S. Senator from the State of Pennsylvania.

We must also remember what they all fought for: America’s core value is the rule of law rooted in the U.S. Constitution. We are a Nation of Laws, not of men.  

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.6% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 26.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  

Usually, inventory is up about 15% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 32.4% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 32.7%), and down 15.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 15.6%). 

This is the highest level since 2019.

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of May 23rd, inventory was at 787 thousand (7-day average), compared to 767 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2025 08:12:00 AM

This week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY, I noted:

On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 2.7% from March and are now down 3.0% from the June 2024 peak. This is less than the normal seasonal increase in the median price for April.

Seasonally, median prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May).

And seasonally, prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December). 

Here is a table of the seasonal percentage increases from January to April, from April to June, and from January to June (the usual seasonal peak), over the last several years.

The last row shows the seasonal decline from June to January of the following year.  

In 2020, prices continued to increase in the 2nd half of the year and didn't peak seasonally until October.  And prices only declined slightly in the 2nd half of 2021.

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Jan to Apr	7.1%	7.1%	7.7%	12.2%	11.6%	6.9%	7.4%	5.2%
Apr to Jun	6.2%	6.9%	2.6%	7.7%	4.6%	6.3%	5.0%	NA
Jan to Jun	13.7%	14.4%	10.6%	20.8%	16.8%	13.7%	12.8%	NA
Jun to Jan	-8.9%	-6.7%	3.1%	-3.4%	-12.8%	-7.7%	-7.8%	NA

The 2025 increase in median prices from January to April was less than the normal seasonal increase.

Normally we'd expect median prices to increase about 6% to 7% over the next three months, before declining in the 2nd half of the year.  With more and more inventory, and economic uncertainty, the seasonal increase from April to June will probably be less than 6% this year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY

• New Home Sales Increase to 743,000 Annual Rate in April

• "How do you grade the Spring housing market?"

• In Q1 2025, 19% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

• California Home Sales "Retreat" in April; New Listings "Surge"

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, May 26th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 7.8% decrease in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.  The consensus is for the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index to increase 4.5% YoY, unchanged from 4.5% YoY in February.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

----- Wednesday, May 28th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of May 6-7, 2025

----- Thursday, May 29th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 225 thousand, down from 227 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2025 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.3% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the advance estimate of -0.3%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in the index.

----- Friday, May 30th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.5% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 50.8.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2025 07:05:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	306✅	368	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2024 (previous pandemic low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths were above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are below the goal for several weeks.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 22nd:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is moving towards the lows last May.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2025 02:00:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q and 1Q GDP tracking are down two-tenths each to +2.0% q/q saar and -0.5% q/q saar, respectively. [May 23rd estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at 0%. We left our past-quarter tracking estimate unchanged at -0.5%. [May 23rd estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on May 16, down from 2.5 percent on May 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and the release of import and export price indexes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 0.4 percent to -3.0 percent. [May 16th estimate] (Next update on May 27th)

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2025 10:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 743,000 Annual Rate in April

Brief excerpt:

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 743 thousand. The previous three months were revised down significantly, combined.
...
The next graph shows new home sales for 2024 and 2025 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in April 2025 were up 3.3% from April 2024.

New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have increased year-over-year in 19 of the last 25 months. This is essentially the opposite of what happened with existing home sales that had been down year-over-year for 40 of the last 44 months.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2025 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 743 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down significantly, combined.

Sales of new single-family houses in April 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 743,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.9 percent above the March 2025 rate of 670,000, and is 3.3 percent above the April 2024 rate of 719,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were above pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in April to 8.1 months from 9.1 months in March.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April 2025 was 504,000. This is 0.6 percent below the March 2025 estimate of 507,000, and is 8.6 percent above the April 2024 estimate of 464,000.

This represents a supply of 8.1 months at the current sales rate. The months' supply is 11.0 percent below the March 2025 estimate of 9.1 months, and is 5.2 percent above the April 2024 estimate of 7.7 months."

Sales were above expectations of 700 thousand SAAR, however sales for the three previous months were revised down significantly, combined. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2025 08:09:00 AM

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Activity Edges Higher Following Recent Record Lows

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its April 2025 First Look, which shows U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) mortgages progressing through the foreclosure pipeline following the recent moratorium expiration.

The ICE First Look reports on month-end delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment statistics sourced from its loan-level database, which covers a majority of the U.S. mortgage market. Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• The national delinquency rate ticked up 1 basis point (bp) to 3.22% in April and is up a modest 13 bps (4.1%) from the same time last year. Still, delinquencies remain below pre-pandemic levels.

• Serious delinquencies – loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure – improved seasonally but rose 14% from April 2024 marking the sixth consecutive month of 10%+ annual increases.

• While foreclosure activity remains muted, foreclosure starts (+13%), sales (+9%), and active inventory (+4%) all rose on an annual basis for the second consecutive month.

• April’s 6,500 foreclosure sales marked the largest single-month volume in 15 months, with VA sales, which account for the bulk of the recent rise, hitting their highest level since 2019.

• Prepayment activity, measured in single month mortality, jumped to 0.71%, the highest level since October. This rise was driven by stronger home sale and refinance-related prepayments, which grew +19.0% over the previous month and +34.9% over the previous year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 08:17:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 700 thousand SAAR, down from 724 thousand SAAR in March.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 04:59:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.7% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 17, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 29.7% year-over-year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 29.7% higher than this time last year. This represents the 80th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, the highest inventory level since December 2019.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rising 8.2% year-over-year

New listings rose again last week, up 8.2% compared to the same period last year.

• The median list price falls more than 1%

After nine consecutive weeks of flat or rising prices, the national median listing price fell year-over-year last week. Ongoing affordability challenges, along with growing concerns about personal finances and job security, continue to pose significant hurdles for many buyers. Nearly four in five home shoppers believe it’s a bad time to buy, which is dampening demand.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 80th consecutive week.  

New listings were solid.

Median list prices declined year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 02:01:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 17 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 17 May. ...

11-17 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 67.2% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.31 (+1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.80 (+0.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking slightly below last year and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways for a few more weeks until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 10:52:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY

Excerpt:

Sales in April (4.00 million SAAR) were down 0.5% from the previous month and were 2.0% below the April 2024 sales rate. This was the 3rd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in sales.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 2.0% year-over-year compared to April 2024.
...
On an NSA basis for the month of April, this was at the low for housing bust for the month of April that happened in April 2009. Year-to-date, sales are down 2.4% NSA.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Edged Lower by 0.5% in April

Existing-home sales slowed in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales dipped in the Northeast and West, grew in the Midwest and were unchanged in the South. Year-over-year, sales declined in three regions and remained steady in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slipped 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in April. Year-over-year, sales descended 2.0% (down from 4.08 million in April 2024)..
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of April was 1.45 million units, up 9.0% from March and 20.8% from one year ago (1.2 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in March and 3.5 months in April 2024.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in April (4.00 million SAAR) were down 0.5% from the previous month and were 2.0% below the April 2024 sales rate.  This was the 3rd consecutive month with a year--over-year decline in sales. 

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.45 million in April from 1.33 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 20.8% year-over-year (blue) in April compared to April 2024.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.4 months in April from 4.0 months the previous month.

As expected, the sales rate was below the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 230,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,500.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.