by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2025 08:09:00 AM

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Activity Edges Higher Following Recent Record Lows

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its April 2025 First Look, which shows U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) mortgages progressing through the foreclosure pipeline following the recent moratorium expiration.

The ICE First Look reports on month-end delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment statistics sourced from its loan-level database, which covers a majority of the U.S. mortgage market. Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• The national delinquency rate ticked up 1 basis point (bp) to 3.22% in April and is up a modest 13 bps (4.1%) from the same time last year. Still, delinquencies remain below pre-pandemic levels.

• Serious delinquencies – loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure – improved seasonally but rose 14% from April 2024 marking the sixth consecutive month of 10%+ annual increases.

• While foreclosure activity remains muted, foreclosure starts (+13%), sales (+9%), and active inventory (+4%) all rose on an annual basis for the second consecutive month.

• April’s 6,500 foreclosure sales marked the largest single-month volume in 15 months, with VA sales, which account for the bulk of the recent rise, hitting their highest level since 2019.

• Prepayment activity, measured in single month mortality, jumped to 0.71%, the highest level since October. This rise was driven by stronger home sale and refinance-related prepayments, which grew +19.0% over the previous month and +34.9% over the previous year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 08:17:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 700 thousand SAAR, down from 724 thousand SAAR in March.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 04:59:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.7% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 17, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 29.7% year-over-year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 29.7% higher than this time last year. This represents the 80th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, the highest inventory level since December 2019.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rising 8.2% year-over-year

New listings rose again last week, up 8.2% compared to the same period last year.

• The median list price falls more than 1%

After nine consecutive weeks of flat or rising prices, the national median listing price fell year-over-year last week. Ongoing affordability challenges, along with growing concerns about personal finances and job security, continue to pose significant hurdles for many buyers. Nearly four in five home shoppers believe it’s a bad time to buy, which is dampening demand.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 80th consecutive week.  

New listings were solid.

Median list prices declined year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 02:01:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 17 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 17 May. ...

11-17 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 67.2% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.31 (+1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.80 (+0.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking slightly below last year and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways for a few more weeks until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 10:52:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY

Excerpt:

Sales in April (4.00 million SAAR) were down 0.5% from the previous month and were 2.0% below the April 2024 sales rate. This was the 3rd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in sales.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 2.0% year-over-year compared to April 2024.
...
On an NSA basis for the month of April, this was at the low for housing bust for the month of April that happened in April 2009. Year-to-date, sales are down 2.4% NSA.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Edged Lower by 0.5% in April

Existing-home sales slowed in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales dipped in the Northeast and West, grew in the Midwest and were unchanged in the South. Year-over-year, sales declined in three regions and remained steady in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slipped 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in April. Year-over-year, sales descended 2.0% (down from 4.08 million in April 2024)..
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of April was 1.45 million units, up 9.0% from March and 20.8% from one year ago (1.2 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in March and 3.5 months in April 2024.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in April (4.00 million SAAR) were down 0.5% from the previous month and were 2.0% below the April 2024 sales rate.  This was the 3rd consecutive month with a year--over-year decline in sales. 

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.45 million in April from 1.33 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 20.8% year-over-year (blue) in April compared to April 2024.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.4 months in April from 4.0 months the previous month.

As expected, the sales rate was below the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 230,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,500.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2025 07:01:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 232 thousand, up from 229 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.02 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.98 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2025 03:12:00 PM

The ICE Home Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales.

From ICE (Intercontinental Exchange):

Annual home price growth nationally slowed to 1.6% in May from 2% in April, as inventory surpluses that began in the Sunbelt spread to the West.

• 40% of the nation’s largest housing markets experienced seasonally adjusted month-over-month price declines from April to May, including 23 of the 24 top markets in the West

• The number of markets with year-over-year price declines increased from 9 to 23 by mid-May, with a majority (9) of the newcomers located in the West

• Those markets include: Denver (-1.6%), San Francisco and Stockton, Calif. (-1.5%), Phoenix (-1.2%), with more modest declines in Honolulu, Colorado Springs, Tucson, Sacramento, and San Diego

• That’s the largest number of markets with annual price declines since interest rates surged above 7.5% in late 2023

Price declines appear to be inventory driven:

• Western markets (led by California) have seen sharp rises in inventory, with every major California market now having at least +40% more homes available for sale than at the same time last year, led by Stockton (+87% ) and Oxnard and San Diego (+70% each)

• Inventories in San Francisco, San Jose, and Stockton have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with other California markets on pace to ‘normalize’ later this year

If current trends persist, we could see prices fall year over year in even more West Coast markets.

As ICE mentioned, cities in the South have been leading the way in inventory increases and price declines (especially Florida and Texas). Now the West Coast markets are following, although inventory levels are mostly still below the pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2025 01:01:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 for the month. Billings have declined for 28 of the last 31 months, since they first dipped back into negative territory following the post-pandemic boom. Despite generally strong backlogs at firms, inquiries into new work declined for the third consecutive month in April, while the value of new design contracts declined at the majority of firms for the fourteenth consecutive month. Although the U.S. economy is not officially in a recession at this time, many architecture firms are reporting recession-like business conditions.

Regionally, business conditions at architecture firms remained softest at firms located in the Northeast for the seventh consecutive month in April. Conditions have also softened significantly at firms located in the West since the beginning of the year. In addition, billings continued to decline at firms of all specializations this month, particularly at firms with commercial/industrial and multifamily residential specializations. The pace of the decline remains slower at firms with an institutional specialization, but billings have still declined nearly every month since mid-2023.
...
The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added

• Northeast (40.2); Midwest (44.4); South (46.2); West (42.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (40.5); institutional (46.3); multifamily residential (40.8)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 43.2 in April, down from 44.1 in March.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 28 of the last 31 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Multi-family billings have been below 50 for the 33 consecutive months.  This suggests we will see continued weakness in multi-family starts.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2025 09:52:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: In Q1 2025, 19% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

Brief excerpt:

Along with the monthly housing starts report for April released last week, the Census Bureau also released Housing Units Started by Purpose and Design through Q1 2025.

The first graph shows the number of single family and multi-family units started with the intent to rent. This data is quarterly and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Although the majority of units built-for-rent’ are still multi-family (blue) - even after the sharp decline in 2022 - there has been a significant pickup in single family units started built-for-rent (red).

A total of 102,000 units were started built-for-rent in Q1, with 19% single family units.

There is much more in the newsletter.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 16, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 27 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since February last week, with investors concerned about rising inflation and the impact of increasing deficits and debt,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Higher rates, including the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.92 percent, led to a slowdown across the board. However, purchase applications are up 13 percent from one year ago.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.92 percent from 6.86 percent, with points increasing to 0.69 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October 2023 and is 5% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased and remained very low.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 07:41:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2025

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 03:52:00 PM

From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Cooling Off in May; Inventory Still Falling (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

With inventory set to continue declining month-to-month, and the cost to automakers of the tariffs more strongly kicking in by July, sales are likely to continue sequential weakness into the summer – unless automakers decide to eat most of the increased cost. Based on the North America production outlook for the next several months, most are not planning to eat a lot of the cost.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for May (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.9 million SAAR, would be down 7.9% from last month, and up 0.5% from a year ago.

Car buyers rushed to buy over the previous couple of months to beat the tariffs.  There will be further payback in coming months.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 02:13:00 PM

During the early stages of the pandemic, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE hit an all-time low of 3.3% of PCE. Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE increased to 2018 levels by the end of 2021 and increased further in 2022 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Here is an update through the April 2025 PCE report.

This graph shows expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures.  This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices.

Click on graph for larger image.

Data source: BEA.

In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE has been trending down for decades. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.

In April 2025, energy expenditures were at 3.6% of PCE, down from 3.8% in March, and down from the recent peak of 5.2% in June 2022. 

This is below the pre-pandemic level.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 11:32:00 AM

This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On May 20, 2025, LBR was at $599.50 per 1,000 board feet, up 13% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

Last year, prices bottomed in July at $449.00 per 1,000 board feet.

The recent year-over-year increase might be due to the tariffs.  

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 08:21:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales "Retreat" in April; New Listings "Surge"

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales retreat for second straight month in April as median home price hits new all-time high, C.A.R. reports

April’s sales pace fell 3.4 percent from the 277,030 homes sold in March and was down 0.2 percent from a year ago, when 268,170 homes were sold on an annualized basis. April’s sales level was the lowest in three months.
...
Total active listings in April rose on a year-over-year basis at the fastest pace since January 2023. The level of active listings last month reached a 66-month high (since October 2019) and recorded its 15th consecutive month of annual gain in housing supply.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 07:03:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7% Before Mid-Day Improvement

Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. News of the downgrade broke with only minutes left in Friday's market/business day, so most of the response played out when global markets opened again late last night.
...
Most mortgage lenders are deciding on rates for the day in the 9am-10am ET time frame. Because this was one of the weakest moments for the bond market, mortgage rates were sharply higher at first. The average lender was back over 7% for the 1st time since April 11th, and only the 2nd time in 3 months.

No sooner were these rates being published than the underlying market began moving back in the other direction. Mortgage lenders prefer to only set rates once per day, but will make mid-day updates when things change enough. Today's reversal was more than sufficient to prompt a re-price. After that, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved just barely back below 7.0%--still higher than Friday, but much more in line with last week's range. [30 year fixed 6.99%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 01:55:00 PM

There were still a large number of ships unloading in April.  We should see a sharp drop in May traffic due to the tariffs.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.7% in April compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were up 10% YoY in April and exports were down 4% YoY.    

Recently importers rushed to beat the tariffs.  And port traffic will likely slow sharply in coming months.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: "How do you grade the Spring housing market?"

A brief excerpt:

Last week, Housing Wire Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler asked Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami the above question: "How do you grade the Spring housing market?"

My friend Logan replied: “Generally, just for how I look at housing, this kind of gets an A ...”

I almost fell out of my chair!

There is much more in the article.