by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 01:50:00 PM

After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full. 

I was pretty optimistic on the economic outlook!

By early 2019, I was becoming more concerned: "So far Mr. Trump has had a limited negative impact on the economy. ... Fortunately the cupboard was full when Trump took office, and luckily there hasn't been a significant crisis" (emphasis added).  

Unfortunately, the COVID crisis struck in early 2020 and Trump performed poorly.

Once again, the economy was in good shape at the start of Mr. Trump's 2nd term in 2025.  Just after the election, Fed Chair Powell said, "The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world."  And in December, Powell said the US economy is the "envy of other large economies around the world".

In his 2nd term, Mr. Trump is being more aggressive with his economic plans.  At the same time, he is not benefiting from the tailwinds I described in 2016.

For example, in 2016, I was positive on housing starts and new home sales.  

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

The black arrows point to the start of Mr. Trump's terms in 2017 and 2025.  In early 2017 I was projecting further increases in housing starts.  Now I think housing starts will be down year-over-year and move more sideways over the next few years.

Also, in 2016, demographics were improving, and the largest cohort in US history was moving into their peak earning years.  Now, demographics are more neutral, and possibly even negative if legal immigration is limited.

The key tailwinds at the start of Mr. Trump's 1st term and now more neutral and even negative.

And there are additional self-induced headwinds.  The tariffs are clearly negative for economic growth.  Goldman Sachs economists recently noted:

Reflecting both the tariff news and a decline in our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to just 0.2%, we have also lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pp to 1.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis (and by 0.4pp to 1.5% on an annual average basis).

And - because of the rhetoric of the Trump administration (suggesting Canada should be the 51st state and the VP saying Denmark isn't a good ally (completely false and offensive) - there will be less international tourism to the US, and there is a growing international boycott of US goods.

Of course, I don't expect any progress over the next four years on key long-term economic issues like climate change and income / wealth inequality (that will likely get worse).

The US economy is resistant to policy mistakes, and I'm still not currently on recession watch.  However, I'm not sanguine.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 10:31:00 AM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure is 2.9 percent above the February 2024 estimate of $2,133.8 billion.
emphasis added

Both private and public spending increased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,686.4 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised January estimate of $1,671.8 billion. ...

In February, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $509.3 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised January estimate of $508.1 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 5.3% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak.

Public construction spending (orange) is at a new peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 1.6%. Private non-residential spending is up 2.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 6.0% year-over-year.

This was above consensus expectations; however, spending for the previous two months was revised down.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 10:11:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0% in March, down from 50.3% in February. The employment index was at 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.2%, down from 48.6%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% March 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March after two consecutive months of expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in March, 1.3 percentage points lower compared to the 50.3 percent recorded in February. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 59th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 45.2 percent is 3.4 percentage points lower than the 48.6 percent recorded in February. The March reading of the Production Index (48.3 percent) is 2.4 percentage points lower than February’s figure of 50.7 percent. The index dropped back into contraction after two months of expansion, with eight months of contraction before that. The Prices Index surged further into expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 69.4 percent, up 7 percentage points compared to the reading of 62.4 percent in February. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.5 percent, down 2.3 percentage points compared to the 46.8 percent recorded in February. The Employment Index registered 44.7 percent, down 2.9 percentage points from February’s figure of 47.6 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in March.  This was below the consensus forecast, new orders and employment were especially weak and prices very strong.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for February; the employment report this Friday will be for March.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in February to 7.57 million from 7.76 million in January.

The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2025 07:17:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways

Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week. We haven't been outside of that range since then.

Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range. [30 year fixed 6.74%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS.

• Also at 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February.  

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending.

• All Day: Light vehicle sales for March.

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2025 02:36:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

A brief excerpt:

Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q4 2024 (just released).
...
Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2024.

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 54.1%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 72.1%). These low existing mortgage rates makes it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply. This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low.

Time is slowly eroding this lock-in effect.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2025 10:34:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in February. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.4% in February, down from up 3.6% YoY in January. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 7 of the 10 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 30.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.3%), and down 19.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 19.5%). 

The gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!  It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of March 28th, inventory was at 676 thousand (7-day average), compared to 668 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 3/30/2025 07:11:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025

Monday:
• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 31 and DOW futures are down 192 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $69.36 per barrel and Brent at $73.63 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $85, and Brent was at $87 - so WTI oil prices are down about 18% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.51 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.39 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/30/2025 10:19:00 AM

Another update ... a few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through January 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January

• Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the February Trade Deficit and March Auto Sales.

For manufacturing, the March ISM Manufacturing and Dallas Fed surveys will be released.

Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday.

----- Monday, March 31st -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March.

----- Tuesday, April 1st -----
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in January to 7.74 million from 7.51 million in December.

The number of job openings (black) were down 9% year-over-year. Quits were down 3% year-over-year.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February.  

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending.

All Day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.6 million SAAR in March, up from 16.0 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.

----- Wednesday, April 2nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February.

----- Thursday, April 3rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $110.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $131.4 billion in January.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for March.

----- Friday, April 4th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

There were 151,000 jobs added in February, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

11:25 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 07:15:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	602	658	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and about double the low of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of March 27th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has generally been moving down.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low", down from "Moderate" last week according to the CDC.   

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 04:38:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in February 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Some of the recent increase in the 90+ day delinquency rate is probably related to the hurricanes last year.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.57%, unchanged from 0.57% in January. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.53% in February 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 11:20:00 AM

UPDATE: Updated Goldman tracking this morning.

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +0.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 28th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. [Mar 28th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:56:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in February, down from 4.5% in January and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are well above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. Note: There is possibly some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 3.9%
Core PCE Prices: 3.6%
Core minus Housing: 3.5%

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February:

Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $191.6 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8 billion (0.4 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $118.4 billion in February. Personal saving was $1.02 trillion in February and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for February increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for February increased 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The February PCE price index increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.5 percent YoY in January, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, up from 2.7 percent in January, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was above expectations.  PCE was at expectations.

Inflation was above expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q1 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 0.9% annual rate in Q1 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 0.2%).  This suggests weak PCE growth in Q1.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 08:13:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 57.9.

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for February 2025

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 05:50:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.2% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending March 22, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 29.2% from a year ago

The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 72-week streak of annual gains. This year-over-year inventory growth gives buyers more choices and encourages more competitive pricing among sellers. However, the inventory level is still below pre-pandemic norms, and supply constraints in many markets continue to limit buyer flexibility.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 8.2%

New listings were up 8.2% compared with this time last year, marking the 11th straight week of annual growth.

• The median list price was unchanged year-over-year

The national median list price was unchanged from a year ago, continuing a 43-week streak where prices have either remained flat or declined compared with the same time last year. Rather than signaling a turnaround, this stability suggests that prices are holding steady as the market adjusts to higher borrowing costs and a growing number of listings.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 72nd consecutive week.  

New listings have increased recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Median prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 02:47:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ...

16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.48 (+1.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.22 (+2.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.