by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2008 10:18:00 AM

From MarketWatch: Consumers extremely gloomy, UMich survey says.

The consumer sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June from 59.6 in May ... It's the lowest since 1980 and the third-lowest reading in the 56-year history of the survey.

A record number of consumers said their own finances had worsened, and inflation expectations are the highest since Feb 1982. (here is the Reuters story with more detail)

Usually consumer sentiment surveys tell you what you already know, and sentiment is heavily impacted by gasoline prices, but these are still pretty stunning numbers.

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2008 08:57:00 AM

From CNBC: Merrill Likely to Write Down $3 Billion-$5 Billion

Reuters is reporting: Merrill may take $5.4 bln in Q2 writeoffs: Lehman

Merrill Lynch will likely incur $5.4 billion of write-downs in the second quarter, mainly from its exposure to monolines, said an analyst at Lehman Brothers ...

Here comes another round of visits to the confessional!

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 09:32:00 PM

From the WSJ: Schumer Asks Regulators For Greater IndyMac Scrutiny (Thanks to all!)

Sen. Charles Schumer sent letters to federal regulators asking them to monitor more closely the financial health of IndyMac ...

The New York Democrat wrote that he is "concerned that IndyMac's financial deterioration poses significant risks to both taxpayers and borrowers and that the regulatory community may not be prepared to take measures that would help prevent the collapse of IndyMac or minimize the damage should such a failure occur."

Here is the AP story: Schumer: concerned over IndyMac stability

I'm very surprised a letter like this was made public. And I'm surprised a U.S. Senator is mentioning a specific bank. Oh well, anyone with more than the FDIC insured limit deposited with IndyMac has had ample warning.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 06:02:00 PM

From Bill Fleckenstein's Daily Rap today: It's About to Blow! (Here is Fleck's Site for the Daily Rap):

Note: excerpted with permission.

[About midday] I received a phone call from the Lord of the Dark Matter, who began the conversation: "It's about to blow!" He then repeated himself.

He went on to say that behind the scenes, many parts of the credit/mortgage market were "offered only." He said it had nothing to do with month-end or quarter-end. Instead, he believed it had to do with the enormous amount of inventory that would be looking for a home in the next quarter. He believed that the equity market was "miles behind what was occurring in the mortgage-backed/credit markets." Though he noted that he'd said it before, he repeated: "It's never been this bad."

And I heard confirmation from a bond shop today that "liquidity is getting worse and worse". Here we go again?

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 02:53:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Oil prices tops $140

TED spread rising sharply. Is this the 4th wave of the credit crisis?

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 12:47:00 PM

Paul Jackson at Housing Wire reports: Alt-A Performance Gets Much Worse in May

A new report released by Clayton Fixed Income Services, Inc. on Wednesday afternoon found that 60+ day delinquency percentages and roll rates increased in every vintage during May among Alt-A loans ... Add in soaring borrower defaults, and the picture doesn’t get much better. Clayton reported that the 2006 vintage saw 60+ day borrower deliquencies among Alt-A first liens reach 21.22 percent in May, up 10.5 percent in a single month; 2007 fared even worse, with 60+ day delinquencies ratcheting up 22 percent to 18.55 percent.

Paul notes that the rating agencies will be probably have to increase their loss assumptions:

Those numbers make Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services latest assumption of 35 percent loss severity on Alt-A loans, only one month old, already start to look a little too conservative. ... given the data now available, a ratings cut for any AAA classes deemed at risk one month ago would seem to be a foregone conclusion for most investors.

Housing Wire has more details.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 11:52:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) existing home sales for 2005 through 2008. Sales are sharply lower in May 2008 compared to the previous three years.

May is an important month for existing home sales, and marks the beginning of the Summer selling season.

Let's compare the NSA pattern for existing home sales to the pattern for new home sales.

The second graph shows monthly NSA new home sales.

The first difference is that new home sales peak in the Spring, and existing home sales peak in the Summer. This is because new home sales are reported when the contract is signed, and existing home sales are reported at the close of escrow.

The second obvious difference is there was no Spring selling season for New Home sales, but there has been a pickup (although muted) in Existing Home sales.

The difference in sales activity could partly be because new homes tend to be in more remote locations, and with rising fuel prices, home buyers are buying existing homes closer to their places of work. Another explanation is that existing home sales are being boosted by REO (bank Real Estate Owned) sales. Dataquick reported that in California in May, 38.3 percent of all sales were foreclosure resales!

The third graph compares New Home sales vs. Existing Home sales since January 1994.

Clearly new home sales have fallen faster than existing home sales.

I suspect REO resales explain some of the difference (as does location).

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 11:00:00 AM

Note: for the 2nd month in a row, the NAR didn't release the Existing Home sales data online in a timely manner.

The NAR reports: May Existing-Home Sales Show Modest Gain

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 2.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1 of 4.99 million units in May from a level of 4.89 million in April, but are 15.9 percent below the 5.93 million-unit pace in May 2007.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in May 2008 (4.99 million SAAR) were the weakest May since 1998 (4.77 million SAAR).

It's important to note that a large percentage of these sales are for homes that were foreclosed during the previous year. Dataquick reported that in California in May, 38.3 percent of all sales were foreclosure resales!

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to NAR, inventory decreased to 4.49 million homes for sale in May.

Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 1.4 percent to 4.49 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 11.2-month supply in April.

The typical pattern is for inventory to decline in December, and then to slowly rebound in January and February, and really start to increase from March through mid-Summer.

The third graph shows the 'months of supply' metric for the last six years.

Months of supply decreased to 10.8 months.

This follows the highest year end months of supply since 1982 (the all time record of 11.5 months of supply). Even if inventory levels stabilize, the months of supply could continue to rise - and possibly rise significantly - if sales decline later this year. More later when the raw data is available ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 10:03:00 AM

From MarketWatch: U.S. May existing-home sales rise 2% as expected

The U.S. home and condo resales inched higher in May as prices continued to fall, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Resales of U.S. houses and condos rose 2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.99 million in May from 4.89 million in April.

Graphs soon ... (NAR is slow to release the data online again) Update MarketWatch on inventory:

Inventories of unsold homes on the market fell 1.4% to 4.49 million, a 10.8-month supply at the May sales pace. The inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted. Inventories are up 2.4% in the past year.

NAR still hasn't released the data online.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2008 08:30:00 AM

It now appears like that Congress will extend unemployment insurance benefits from 26 weeks to 39 weeks. How will this impact the Weekly Claims data?

First, weekly claims typically get a short term bounce with an unemployment benefit extension as some workers refile for claims. This will probably add 50K per week to claims for several weeks (pushing claims solidly above 400K).

Extended benefits are not included in continued claims (there is a separate category), however continued claims will probably also get a small boost as some job seekers wait for better opportunities.

Just a couple of points to remember when claims get a boost - probably as soon as next month. Of course weekly claims are already rising, even before the extended benefits become available, indicating a weakening labor market.

Here is the current report from the Department of Labor for the week ending June 21, showing initial unemployment claims increased to 384,000, and the 4-week moving average was 378,250.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the continued claims since 1989.

Continued claims increased this week to 3,139,000, an increase of 82,000 from the preceding week.

Notice that following the previous two recessions, continued claims stayed elevated for a couple of years after the official recession ended - suggesting the weakness in the labor market lingered. The same will probably be true for the current recession (probable).

The second graph shows the weekly claims and the four week moving average of weekly unemployment claims since 1989. The four week moving average has been trending upwards for the last few months, and the level is now solidly above the possible recession level (approximately 350K).

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 11:46:00 PM

The TED spread is starting to rise again and is back above 1.0 for the first time since the beginning of May. Here is the TED Spread from Bloomberg. The spread is still far below the previous three waves, but well above the normal level (below 0.5).

And from the WSJ: European Bank-Lending Anxiety Returns

Tensions in Europe's short-term lending markets are on the rise again, repeating a pattern that central bankers had hoped to end by pumping in hundreds of billions of dollars in recent months.

The pressure partly reflects an end-of-quarter effect, as banks hoard cash to make sure their finances look healthy when they report second-quarter results.

But it also demonstrates that fears of further write-downs and possible failures aren't going away.

And from the Fed Commercial Paper report, the A2/P2 less AA spread has risen to 82 bps. Note: This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper.



Perhaps it's a little premature to worry about a 4th wave, but these are worrisome signs.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 06:51:00 PM

From the LA Times: Times poll: 75% blame Bush's policies for deteriorating economy

[A]ccording to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll ... Nine percent of respondents said the country's economic condition has become better off since Bush became president, compared with 75% who said conditions had worsened. Among Republicans, 42% said the country is worse off, while 26% said it is about the same, and only 22% thought economic conditions had improved.
...
All together, 82% of respondents said the economy is doing badly, compared with 71% who felt that way when the question was asked in February. And the pessimism has intensified: 50% of respondents said the economy is doing "very badly," compared to 38% in February.

This is kind of like blaming the quarterback for a loss; there are many other factors (although I share the view that the Bush administration has done a poor job on economic matters). This is a very high level of pessimism, and is probably related to higher gasoline prices, something that is very visible to every American.

On energy:

Seventy percent of respondents said the rising cost of fuel had caused hardship for their families and the pain appeared spread across all income groups: 79% of people with incomes of less than $40,000 a year said the higher prices were a hardship, but so did 55% of respondents with incomes above $100,000.

In general confidence polls are coincident indicators (they tell you what you already know about spending patterns), so this doesn't suggest anything about future consumer spending. But it's pretty clear that Americans are not happy.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 04:25:00 PM

Here is some more evidence of consumers shifting to inferior goods - from Bloomberg via the LA Times: Earnings jump 15% at Kroger, operator of Ralphs.

Consumers bought more store-branded products ...

Generic or store-branded products are classic inferior goods. Sales for store-branded products typically increase during tough economic times, and decrease when times are good (as consumers shift back to name brands).

On the same store sales increase of 5.5% - isn't that just related to higher prices for food products?

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 02:12:00 PM

From the FOMC:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 12:19:00 PM

"Frankly, there's very few levers left ... [T]his energy crisis is affecting consumers ... People aren't spending. People aren't driving. Really, you need to look at ways to control what's happened in the inflationary world and really take the risk that by raising rates, you may actually cause some demand to go weaker. I think it's back to where Paul Volcker was in the early '80s. There's a real risk here and we've got stagflation. You can only break out of it one way and you better take on inflation head-on."
Andrew Liveris, chairman and CEO of Dow Chemical, June 24, 2008

Meanwhile, from the NY Times: Dow Chemical Raises Prices for Second Time in a Month

The Dow Chemical Company said Tuesday that it was raising prices for the second time in a month to offset a “relentless rise” in energy costs, a sign that companies may increasingly have to pass on price increases to their customers.

The increase of as much as 25 percent — the largest in the company’s history — comes after a 20 percent rise last month that the company said did not go far enough given the continuing surge in energy prices.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 11:23:00 AM

There was no Spring this year. This year saw the smallest increase in sales from the Winter doldrums, to the Spring selling season, since the Census Bureau started tracking new home sales in 1963.

Note: Please see my earlier post for more on new home sales.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) new home sales for the last 45 years.

Usually sales increase in the spring - but not this year. The previous worst spring on record was 1982 - in the midst of a severe recession, with 30 year fixed mortgage rates at 17%, and close to double digit unemployment.

In 1982, sales picked up late in the year as interest rates declined sharply (30 year fixed rates fell from 17% to about 13% at the end of the year).

The second graph shows monthly new home sales NSA for the last few years (repeated from this morning).

The Red columns are for 2008. This is the lowest sales for May since the recession of '91.

Once again, the 2008 spring selling season has never really started. And it's probably all downhill from here.

No wonder the home builders are so pessimistic.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 10:00:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512 thousand. Sales for April were revised down slightly to 525 thousand (from 526 thousand).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Notice the Red columns for 2008. This is the lowest sales for May since the recession of '91.

As the graph indicates, the spring selling season has never really started.

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales have fallen off a cliff.

Sales of new one-family houses in May 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.5 percent below the revised April rate of 525,000 and is 40.3 percent below the May 2007 estimate of 857,000.

And one more long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

"Months of supply" is at 10.9 months. Note that this doesn't include cancellations, but that was true for the earlier periods too.

The all time high for Months of Supply was 11.6 months in April 1980.

Once again, the current recession is "probable" and hasn't been declared by NBER.

And on inventory:

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 453,000. This represents a supply of 10.9 months at the current sales rate.

Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are near record levels. Actual New Home inventories are probably much higher than reported - my estimate is just under 100K higher.

Still, the 453,000 units of inventory is below the levels of the last year, and it appears that even including cancellations, inventory is now falling.

This is another very weak report for New Home sales and I'll have more later.

by Anonymous on 6/25/2008 08:12:00 AM

As usual, I can't tell if this sounds a little absurd because the complaint is this weak or because all I have to go on is the Gretchen Morgenson Version of the complaint.

The Illinois complaint was derived from 111,000 pages of Countrywide documents and interviews with former employees. It paints a picture of a lending machine that was more concerned with volume of loans than quality.

For example, former employees told Illinois investigators that Countrywide’s pay structure encouraged them to make as many loans as they could; some reduced-documentation loans took as little as 30 minutes to underwrite, the complaint said.

Volume-based compensation structures? There have been volume-based compensation structures in this business since long before Tanta got into it. Does it create perverse incentives? Sure. Do we have to like it? No. Has it operated all these years in plain sight of regulators, investors, and the public? Yes. Is CFC's pay structure all that different from anyone else's? I profoundly doubt it.

And if anyone who has ever underwritten a loan in 30 minutes has to go to jail, the jails will be full indeed. I wonder if they'll let me take my new Kindle. Jesus H. Christ on a Process Re-engineering Consultant Binge, folks, anybody who didn't tell the analysts on the conference calls that they'd got their average underwriting time down to 30 minutes was Nobody back in 2000. Not to mention the AUS side of the business where underwriting had gotten down to 30 seconds.

The lawsuit cited Countrywide documents indicating that almost 60 percent of its borrowers in subprime adjustable rate mortgages requiring minimal payments in the early years, known as hybrid A.R.M.’s, would not have qualified at the full payment rate. Countrywide also acknowledged that almost 25 percent of the borrowers would not have qualified for any other mortgage product that it sold.

It is now grounds for a lawsuit that you have borrowers in your lowest credit quality product who do not qualify for any alternative product? Um. We used to think that if borrowers in your lowest credit quality product could have qualified for an alternative product, you might be guilty of predatory "steering." Now you're also guilty of predatory lending if indeed the borrowers at the bottom of the pile only qualify there? Every lender has borrowers in, say, its FHA product who could not not qualify for any other mortgage product it sells. Are we going to call that a problem? That'd get pretty interesting pretty fast.

Even more surprising, Ms. Madigan said, was her office’s discovery of e-mail messages automatically sent by Countrywide to its borrowers offering complimentary loan reviews one year after they obtained their mortgages from the company.

“Happy Anniversary!” the e-mail messages stated. “Many home values skyrocketed over the past year. That means that you may have thousands of dollars of home equity to borrow from at rates much lower than most credit cards.”

Ms. Madigan said, “I was just struck that on the first anniversary of these people’s loans they would get these e-mails luring them into a refinance, into another unaffordable product to generate more fees and originate more loans.”

Lisa Madigan cannot be such a Pangloss as to be bowled over by the idea that lenders solicit their current loan customers for refinances. She can't.

Nobody has to like any of these business practices. But they have been hiding in plain sight for a long, long time. This ginned-up outraged innocence--all directed at Countrywide, as if everyone else in the industry had never heard of any of this--is truly getting on my nerves.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 01:40:00 AM

Peter Goodman at the NY Times writes about an upscale Denver exurb that is getting hit hard by a combination of the housing bust and high oil prices: Rethinking the Country Life as Energy Costs Rise. Here is a great quote:

“Living closer in, in a smaller space, where you don’t have that commute,” [Denver exurbanite Phil Boyle] said. “It’s definitely something we talk about. Before it was ‘we spend too much time driving.’ Now, it’s ‘we spend too much time and money driving.’ ”

Michael Corkery at the WSJ writes in the Development blog: Rising Gas Prices Crushing Housing Recovery in Inland Empire

Even though falling prices in California’s Inland Empire are making homes more affordable, rising gasoline prices are crushing hopes of a housing recovery in this area, east of Los Angeles.
...
“Land that was purchased with expanding metro areas in mind has already been hard hit in value,” says [Deutsche Bank analyst Nishu Sood]. ”Sustained higher gas prices could render it effectively worthless.”

This is a problem all over the country, see this Bloomberg story on the Washington area: Wealth Evaporates as Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, or this post on Temecula, CA.

As I noted before, any lifestyle dependent on low gas prices - and low gas mileage vehicles - is becoming uneconomical. For those that own a home in a remote location, work in construction, and drive a low gas mileage vehicle, this must feel like a depression.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2008 12:08:00 AM

From MarketWatch: Wachovia hires Goldman to help sort loan portfolio (hat tip Mark)

Wachovia Corp. said Tuesday that it has hired Goldman Sachs Group to review its loan portfolio, another sign that the bank is bracing for further mortgage-related trouble when it reports earnings next month.
...
Wachovia has written down more than $5 billion in bad investments over the last year ...

The key problem for Wachovia is the $120 Billion Pick-a-pay portfolio (Option ARMs) that came with the Golden West acquisition in 2005.