by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2008 06:22:00 PM

Here is an update on the Ireland housing market from UTV Insight:

Part I: (8 minutes)



Part II: (8 minutes)



Part III: (8 minutes):

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2008 04:11:00 PM

From Peter Tong at the LA Times: Foreclosures lead a town's downturn

It wasn't long ago that Andy Krotik was selling houses to out-of-town investors who would sometimes buy two at a time.

Now, Krotik spends his days warily entering abandoned houses, checking for angry holdouts or startled squatters. He wants to make sure the properties are empty and secure so he can sell them for the banks that have repossessed them.

"We're experiencing a tsunami of bank-owned properties," said Krotik, who has been selling real estate in this Central Valley town since 1989.

Few places in California flew as high in the real estate boom and crashed as hard as Merced.

For some of these fairly isolated communities, it will probably take years to absorb all the excess inventory built during the boom.

The lead in this story reminds me of commercials on TV (circa 2005) urging homeowners to take equity out of their homes and "build an empire". I can just imagine these equity rich homeowners as "out-of-town investors", driving to Yosemite, and stopping at Merced to buy "two at a time". Ouch.

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2008 02:35:00 PM

This is a followup to the post this morning about GM significantly cutting production.

From the WSJ: GM, Ford Sales Plunge As Truck Demand Wanes

In May, GM sales of cars and light trucks totaled 268,892, down from 371,056 a year earlier. There were 27 selling days in May, compared with 26 a year ago. ...

Toyota sold 257,404 vehicles in May, compared with 269,023 a year earlier. Toyota's passenger car sales inched up 0.4% to 168,942 while light-truck sales slid 12% to 88,462. ...

Ford reported May sales of 217,268 light vehicles, compared with 258,123 a year earlier. Sales of Ford trucks and sport-utility vehicles were down 26% to 126,364, with F-series truck sales tumbling 31%.

There is some good news: people are buying more fuel efficient cars - and the roads are noticeably less crowded where I live in SoCal.

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2008 01:12:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Soros says commodity bubble echoes '87 climate

The investment flood into commodity indexes bears eerie similarities to the craze for portfolio insurance which led to the stock market crash of 1987, said hedge fund investor George Soros, who warned the rush into commodities has created a "bubble."

"In both cases, the institutions are piling in on one side of the market and they have sufficient weight to unbalance it," said Soros in testimony prepared for a Senate panel on energy manipulation.

"If the trend were reversed and the institutions as a group headed for the exit as they did in 1987, there would be a crash," he said.

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2008 10:49:00 AM

From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: Remarks on the economic outlook

On the sources of the financial turmoil:

Although the severity of the financial stresses became apparent only in August, several longer-term developments served as prologue for the recent turmoil and helped bring us to the current situation.

The first of these was the U.S. housing boom, which began in the mid-1990s and picked up steam around 2000. Between 1996 and 2005, house prices nationwide increased about 90 percent. During the years from 2000 to 2005 alone, house prices increased by roughly 60 percent--far outstripping the increases in incomes and general prices--and single-family home construction increased by about 40 percent. But, as you know, starting in 2006, the boom turned to bust. Over the past two years, building activity has fallen by more than half and now is well below where it was in 2000. House prices have shown significant declines in many areas of the country.

A second critical development was an even broader credit boom, in which lenders and investors aggressively sought out new opportunities to take credit risk even as market risk premiums contracted. Aspects of the credit boom included rapid growth in the volumes of private equity deals and leveraged lending and the increased use of complex and often opaque investment vehicles, including structured credit products. The explosive growth of subprime mortgage lending in recent years was yet another facet of the broader credit boom. Expanding access to homeownership is an important social goal, and responsible subprime lending is beneficial for both borrowers and lenders. But, clearly, much of the subprime lending that took place during the latter stages of the credit boom in 2005 and 2006 was done very poorly.

A third longer-term factor contributing to recent financial and economic developments is the unprecedented growth in developing and emerging market economies. From the U.S. perspective, this growth has been a double-edged sword. On the one hand, low-cost imports from emerging markets for many years increased U.S. living standards and made the Fed's job of managing inflation easier. Moreover, currently, the demand for U.S. exports arising from strong global growth has been an important offset to the factors restraining domestic demand, including housing and tight credit. On the other hand, the rapid growth in the emerging markets and the associated sharp rise in their demand for raw materials have been--together with a variety of constraints on supply--a major cause of the escalation in the relative prices of oil and other commodities, which has placed intense economic pressure on many U.S. households and businesses.
...
The current economic and financial situation reflects, in significant part, the unwinding of two of these longer-term developments--the housing boom and the credit boom--and the continuation of the pressure of global demand on commodity prices.

And on the dollar and inflation:

The challenges that our economy has faced over the past year or so have generated some downward pressures on the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which have contributed to the unwelcome rise in import prices and consumer price inflation. We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer-term inflation expectations.

It unusual for a Fed Chairman to comment so directly on the dollar, and this probably means rate cuts are off the table for now - even if the economy weakens further.

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2008 10:06:00 AM

“Since the first of this year, however, U.S. economic and market conditions have become significantly more difficult. Higher gasoline prices are changing consumer behavior, and they are significantly affecting the U.S. auto industry sales mix.”
GM Chairman Rick Wagoner, June 3, 2008

From the NY Times: G.M. Closing 4 Plants in Shift From Trucks Toward Cars

General Motors said Tuesday that it would stop making pickup trucks and big S.U.V.s at four North American assembly plants and would consider selling its Hummer brand.

... the company ... will slash 500,000 units from the automaker’s overall production ...

More bad news for the auto industry (although shifting away from large SUVs is probably good news in the long run).

by Anonymous on 6/03/2008 08:31:00 AM

Several readers have sent me the link to this Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story about a wretched tale of mortgage fraud. It's worth reading, both for an understanding of how many parties need to be complicit for such a blatantly fraudulent transaction to occur, but also for the way it tracks the hardening of attitudes of the lender over time, from an initial spontaneous recognition that this borrower got fleeced but good to a later tendency to blame the victim. Kudos to the Journal Sentinel for digging into the details of this one.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 08:47:00 PM

"We've always said we were a home builder and not a land speculator. We probably got a little bit off our basics because we were being a little greedy."
Larry Seay, COO, Meritage Homes, June 1, 2008

A little greedy?

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 04:51:00 PM

This morning I posted some graphs on the price distribution of distressed homes (short sales, REOs) in Orange County.

Here is some similar data on the Minneapolis area, from a recent report by MAAR Research Manager Jeff Allen and Aaron Dickinson: Foreclosures and short sales in the Twin Cities Housing Market (hat tip Jeff)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Just like for Orange County, there are many more distressed homes for sale at the low end; over 50% of inventory priced below $120,000 is distressed. Many of these distressed homes were probably purchased with subprime loans.

Naturally the areas with a higher percentage of distressed properties have seen faster price declines. Of course - just like for Orange County - those areas also saw the most appreciation because of loose underwriting for subprime lending. Here is a graph showing the real Case-Shiller prices in Minneapolis for three price ranges.

This graph show the real Case-Shiller prices for homes in Minneapolis by price range.

The low price range is less than $176,486 (current dollars). Prices in this range have fallen 27.0% from the peak in real terms.

The mid-range is $176,486 to $250,300. Prices have fallen 21.9% in real terms.

The high price range is above $250300. Prices have fallen 20.8% in real terms.

This is the common pattern: the low end saw the most appreciation, the most foreclosures, and now the fastest price declines. This higher distressed property activity at the low end is also distorting some of the median price measures, as Jeff and Aaron report:

[The] higher market share places a heavy downward weight on aggregate sales price figures, giving many the erroneous impression that the housing market in its entirety is seeing massive declines in value. In reality, the lender-mediated market and the traditional seller market are experiencing stark differences.

As has been widely reported in recent months (including in our own research products), the median sales prices of Twin Cities homes in the first quarter of 2008 were 10.3 percent below the first quarter of 2007—a sizeable and conspicuous decline. But lost in the hub-bub—and partly because no one had the data until now—is that the traditional sales market that does not include foreclosures and short sales saw only a 3.9 percent decline in median sales price during the same time period.

I spoke with Jeff Allen today, and just like for some REOs in Oceanside, the low end REOs in Minneapolis are seeing a significant pickup in buyer interest, possibly from investors, as the lenders have started to price these homes aggressively. This suggests that prices are approaching a bottom in some of these low end areas.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 04:01:00 PM

Ken Lewis is speaking on a conference call sponsored by Deutsche Bank today.

Greg Morcroft at MarketWatch has the details:

Countrywide deal remains "compelling transaction"-B of A CEO

Problem loans likely to peak this year: Bank of America CEO On problem loans:

"I think we'll see some spikes in the second quarter, then some leveling later this year, and some declines next year."

And on CRE:

Lewis also said that the firm's commercial real estate loan portfolio remains in generally good shape ... "In commercial real estate, homebuilders is the spot we see the losses and the non-performers," he said. Other than that, he said, "we haven't seen many cracks in the commercial real estate portfolio."

And on HELOCs: Bank of America targets 8 - 8.5% Tier 1 capital ratio

Lewis ... said he sees home equity losses going above 2% of the firm's home equity portfolio, and said credit card charge offs "could be slightly above 6% in the next quarter or two."

So problem loans will "spike" in the second quarter, and then level off. Let me be the first to predict Q3 will "surprise" and be worse than Q2!

And on Countrywide: the deal may remain "compelling" to Lewis, but I wonder if he has asked why the Countrywide REO inventory is declining - while REOs for everyone else are increasing substantially? I've heard a rumor that Countrywide has simply stopped foreclosing on loans, and some analysts think they might be under reporting their delinquencies.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 01:48:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman Ratings Cut by S&P

Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had their credit ratings lowered by Standard & Poor's on expectations the securities firms will be forced again to write down the value of their assets.
...
``The negative actions reflect prospects of continued weakness in the investment banking business and the potential for more write-offs, though not of the magnitude of those of the past few quarters,'' Tanya Azarchs, an S&P analyst, said today in a statement.

Also the outlooks for just about the entire large financial institutions sector are now negative.

Contained. Problems behind us. ... Not!

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 12:12:00 PM

From Lawrence Lindsey: Everything you always wanted to know about the housing crash, but were afraid to ask.. Lindsey covers a number of topics (hence the title), but here are some short excerpts on inventory and demand:

There are 129 million housing units in the United States, comprising owner-occupied, rented, and vacant units. Of these, 18.5 million are empty. This vacancy rate is 2.5 percentage points higher than it has been at any point in the half century the data have been tracked, translating into at least 3 million too many empty housing units in the country. This number, moreover, is rising. This is the most intractable part of the real estate bubble, for we cannot find a true bottom to home prices until this inventory of empty units starts to clear, and we cannot find a bottom to the mortgage finance market until home prices bottom out.

No question - there is a huge overhang of inventory in the U.S., but I think Lindsey's analysis overstates the problem. Here is my estimate:

*******************

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the homeowner vacancy rate since 1956. A normal rate for recent years appears to be about 1.7%. There is some noise in the series, quarter to quarter, so perhaps the vacancy rate has stabilized in the 2.7% to 2.9% range.

This leaves the homeowner vacancy rate almost 1.2% above normal, and with approximately 75 million homeowner occupied homes; this gives about 900 thousand excess vacant homes.

The rental vacancy rate increased to 10.1% in Q1 2008, from 9.6% in Q4. It's hard to define a "normal" rental vacancy rate based on the historical series, but we can probably expect the rate to trend back towards 8%. According to the Census Bureau there are 35.7 million rental units in the U.S. If the rental vacancy rate declined from 10.1% to 8%, there would be 2.1% X 35.7 million units or about 750,000 units absorbed.

This would suggest there are about 750 thousand excess rental units in the U.S. that need to be absorbed.

If we add this up: 750 thousand excess rental units, 900 thousand excess vacant homes, and 200 thousand excess new home inventory, this gives approximately 1.85 million excess housing units in the U.S. - very high, but well below Lindsey's estimate of 3 million units.

And Lindsey on demand:

The math of the housing market is fairly clear. Each year roughly half a million homes are destroyed to make better use of the land on which they sit. Population growth also helps whittle down inventory. The household formation years--ages 25 to 34--have 39.5 million people in them forming 19 million households, a group that creates demand for 1.8 to 1.9 million units each year. On the other hand, households pass from the scene later in life, and the homes they used to live in go onto the market. There are 11.6 million households of 65- to 74-year-olds and 9 million households of 75- to 84-year-olds. Their departure increases supply by around 1.1 million units per year. On net, therefore, demographic realities add about 850,000 units to demand on top of the half-million homes that are destroyed and removed from supply.

The home building industry is in a deep recession, with additional yearly new home supply cut in half since 2006. But homebuilders are still adding nearly a million units per year. The math is simple: Build a million, tear down half a million, form 850,000 households, and the country only whittles down its excess inventory by 350,000 units per year. This is one reason to expect a further drop in new home construction, but it will still take years to get our housing inventory back to normal. The economic, social, and financial damage over that time could be staggering.

It's important to understand that during a recession (or economic slowdown) fewer household are formed than normal, and also fewer housing units are demolished. Lindsey is estimating the demand for a normal economy (some people get confused by temporary changes in demand due to economic conditions, as opposed to the demand during more normal times).

Once again, I think Lindsey is a little too pessimistic. But this does illustrate the key problem for housing; it will take years to work off the current excess inventory.Read on ... there is much more.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 11:18:00 AM

Update: for Minneapolis, see Minneapolis: Price Distribution of Distressed Homes

Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register writes: Distressed homes 63% of O.C.’s cheaper supply

As a percent of all listed homes for sale, distressed properties were 38.7% of the market last week vs. 36.7% two weeks earlier ...

It appears distressed inventory is continuing to increase in Orange County similar to the national trend (see the WSJ: Number of Foreclosed Homes Keeps Rising). Note: distressed sales include short sales and REOs.

What is interesting is the numbers are broken down by price range. Here is a graph showing the numbers from Lansner:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Not surprisingly, there are many more distressed homes for sale at the low end; over 70% of inventory is distressed in some of the poorer areas of Orange County (like Santa Ana). Although the lowest category for the graph is less than $500K, many of these distressed homes are probably significantly below the previous conforming limit and were probably purchased with subprime loans.

Naturally the areas with a higher percentage of distressed properties have seen faster price declines. Of course those areas also saw the most appreciation because of loose underwriting for subprime lending. Here is a graph (from a post on Saturday) showing the real Case-Shiller prices in Los Angeles for three price ranges.

This graph show the real Case-Shiller prices for homes in Los Angeles by price range.

The low price range is less than $417,721 (current dollars). Prices in this range have fallen 34.9% from the peak in real terms.

The mid-range is $417,721 to $627,381. Prices have fallen 30.7% in real terms.

The high price range is above $627,381. Prices have fallen 22.8% in real terms.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 10:11:00 AM

Construction spending declined in April for residential, but increased to for non-residential private construction.

From the Census Bureau: March 2008 Construction Spending at $1,123.5 Billion Annual Rate

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $823.8 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised March estimate of $827.7 billion.

Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $435.8 billion in April, 2.3 percent below the revised March estimate of $445.8 billion.

Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $388.0 billion in April, 1.6 percent above the revised March estimate of $381.8 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993.

Over the last couple of years, as residential spending has declined, nonresidential has been very strong. It appeared earlier this year that the expected slowdown in non-residential spending had arrived.

However, non-residential spending in April set a new nominal record (seasonally adjusted annual rate). This is a little surprising given tighter lending standards and reduced capital spending plans.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2008 09:33:00 AM

From the WSJ: Wachovia Ousts Thompson, Smith Will Be Interim CEO

[Wachovia] said Monday that board members have forced [CEO G. Kennedy Thompson] to retire from the company he has run for eight years.
...
Wachovia posted bigger-than-expected losses in April, battered by sinking credit quality and the ill-timed acquisition in 2006 of Golden West Financial Corp., the Calabasas, Calif., mortgage lender.

It was the acquisition of Option ARM lender Golden West in 2006 that caused many of these problems. Most losses to come ...

by Anonymous on 6/02/2008 07:33:00 AM

The Chicago Tribune has a lengthy article out on HSBC's loan workout efforts. This is all rather confusing because HSBC uses the term "modification" the way everyone else I know uses the term "repayment plan," and then uses the term "restructuring" for what everybody else calls a "modification." With that in mind:

HSBC quickly stopped offering some of the riskiest loans, including stated-income mortgages, which require little documentation, and those generated by brokers, a channel where it had less control.

But trying to help homeowners stave off foreclosures through loan modifications or restructurings is taking longer than expected, McDonagh said.

A modification is generally temporary; after the end of a certain period, the loan resets to its original terms. A restructuring is a permanent redoing of the contract, including new terms and conditions.

"We typically would do six- to nine-month modifications" for troubled homeowners, he said. "Now we're looking out two to three years because, with the severity of the issues they've got, they need longer than six months to work things out."

The number of modifications and restructurings have been rising and represent 22 percent of its mortgage book, or about $18 billion.

Of that, $1.9 billion in modifications, in 11,900 loans, has occurred since late 2006 as part of a program to address the interest rate resets of adjustable-rate mortgages. . . .

HSBC Finance, which typically holds its mortgages on its books, ended 2007 with 9,627 foreclosed properties, up from 8,809 at the end of the third quarter, company records show. While the average number of days to sell a foreclosed property has dipped from 186 to 183 in the same time period, HSBC's losses on the sale of foreclosed real estate have climbed, losing 14 percent of their value in the fourth quarter, up from a 9 percent loss in the third quarter.

Every modification or restructuring is a full re-underwriting, with customers' latest financial situations reviewed.

"To make it work, they have to be upfront about their debts and sources of income," he said.

To a degree, HSBC relies on computerized analysis to decide whether a customer is suited to a mortgage modification.

But "at the end of the day, it's a personal negotiation because every customer's situation is different," he said. "It requires skilled" employees.

I periodically hear people wondering if servicers of securities are doing modifications they wouldn't do on their own mortgage portfolio. I have believed all along that in fact portfolio lenders are much more aggressive about working out loans. They are also, I suspect, much faster at offloading REO quickly and taking the loss.

The question becomes whether the securitization rules or trustees themselves are hindering servicer efforts to work out loans, or whether servicers prioritize their workload with their portfolio loans first, then the securitized loans. I would guess it's a combination in a lot of cases.

by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2008 07:35:00 PM

From the WSJ: Number of Foreclosed Homes Keeps Rising

Lenders and investors in mortgages owned about 660,000 foreclosed homes in April, up from 493,000 in January and 231,000 in January 2007, according to First American CoreLogic ... The April total works out to about one in seven previously occupied homes available for sale nationwide.

... By cutting prices, lenders have managed to increase sales of such homes sharply in recent months in some cities hit hard by foreclosures ... Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, forecasts that the inventory of REO homes won't peak before the end of 2009.
...
The REO glut is weighing on house prices in many areas, as banks tend to cut prices faster than other sellers.

The lenders were slow to reduce prices at first, apparently hoping for "better market conditions". Now some lenders are getting aggressive as they realize that holding REOs means even greater losses as prices continue to fall.

From anecdotal evidence, it appears the lenders are being aggressive on pricing at the low end, but are still reluctant to discount mid to higher priced homes. This will probably change as the REOs continue to pile up at the banks.

by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2008 03:26:00 PM

Once again Haloscan is having performance problems.

I've switched to JS-kit until Haloscan starts working again.

JS-kit has a number of new features (that I haven't tried), and allows for threading (replies to individual comments).

Let me know what you think. I'm open to suggestions - Haloscan's reliability is a major issue.

Best to all

by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2008 09:37:00 AM

From the LA Times: Sales of foreclosures are on the rise

THE MARKET may be down, but sales of bank-owned properties are picking up, with multiple offers being made in many cases as lenders drop their prices to move foreclosed homes off the books.
...
"A $650,000 to $700,000 appraisal a year ago in some areas is now worth about $350,000. It took a while for the banks to adjust their mentality to that." [said Earl Bonawitz, general manager for Century 21 Wright in Temecula]
...
John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick Information Systems, also is seeing that REO prices have come down and more homes are closing escrow than a few months ago.

"The big question is whether we're in a recession," he said. "If we are, we're in for some more downturn. If we're not in a recession, it's likely that prices have found their bottom and that most of the declines are behind us. That's true for REOs and the market as a whole."

Yes, some REO lenders are finally getting realistic with their pricing, and in areas with significant REO activity (and aggressive lenders) prices may be close to the eventual nominal bottom. This is one of the key points I made in House Price Mosaic.

But this article misses a far more important point: house price changes vary widely by area, not just by state, but even within cities. Over time the equilibrium between different price ranges will return, but the price dynamics will be different. Areas with a large number of REOs have seen much faster price declines - and are probably closer to the price bottom. Areas with fewer REOs will exhibit "sticky prices" and the prices will probably decline for some time.

by Calculated Risk on 5/31/2008 10:32:00 PM

From The Times: Bradford & Bingley to issue profit warning

BRITAIN’s biggest lender of buy-to-let mortgages, Bradford & Bingley ... will stun the City this week with a profit warning and the departure of its embattled chief executive, Steven Crawshaw.

The announcement will trigger widespread concern that British banks are sitting on a time-bomb of rising mortgage arrears and mounting bad debt. It will also reignite fears about the viability of some of our top financial institutions.
...
Profits for this financial year will be significantly lower than analysts’ forecasts. The bank has been hit hard by mounting arrears from borrowers and squeezed margins.

"Buy-to-let" is lending to investors for the purpose of renting the property. Some of these investors were really speculators buying for appreciation.

In some areas - like London - investors accounted for a majority of new home purchases in recent years (from a 2007 article):

According to London Development Research, two-thirds of all new homes built in the capital are being bought by investors.

Now, with house prices falling in the U.K., the speculators (and their lenders) will be hit hard just like in the U.S.