by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2025 11:34:00 AM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 November

Due to a comparison against election week in 2024, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 November. ...

26 October through 1 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 64.2% (+2.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.70 (+3.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$104.42 (+6.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2025 08:22:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly year-to-date compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in August and will likely be about the same year-over-year in the September report compared to August (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 3.9%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.7%, in May up 2.3%, in June up 1.9% in July 1.7% and in August 1.5%.

And the August Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in June, July and August. June closing prices include some contracts signed in April.

So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2025 08:01:00 PM

The government will reopen soon, and the statistical agencies will post new schedules. It is likely that the October employment and CPI reports will never be released since the data wasn't gathered.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday (red will Not be released);
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2025 09:49:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-November provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Note that we are missing some key pieces of data due to the government shutdown, such as housing starts and new home sales. However, most other housing data, like existing home inventory and house prices, are available from private sources.br />
The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales). It now appears existing home prices will be down nationally year-over-year by the end of 2025. ...

Realtor.com reports in the October 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 5.1% year-over-year in October. And active listings were up 15.3% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in October, as the number of actively listed homes rose 15.3% compared to the same time last year. While this marks the 24th consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains, active listing growth has slowed in each of the past five months (down from 17% in September, 20.9% in August, 24.8% in July, 28.9% in June, and 31.5% in May). The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the sixth consecutive month, unchanged since July. Still, nationwide October inventory remains 13.2% belowtypical 2017–19 levels, about the same as last month, an indication that the nationwide inventory recovery has stalled.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 147 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 31 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Purchase applications picked up almost 6 percent over the week to the strongest pace since September, despite mortgage rates increasing slightly, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.34 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications for conventional, FHA, and VA loans increased, as potential homebuyers continue to shop around, particularly in markets where inventory has increased and sales price growth has slowed. Based on the unadjusted purchase index for the week, this was the strongest start to November since 2022.”

Added Kan, “Higher mortgage rates did quell some refinance activity, as conventional and VA refinance applications declined over the week, and the average loan size for refinances dropped to its lowest level in over a month.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.34 percent from 6.31 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 31% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2025 07:31:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2025 12:49:00 PM

This is worth repeating ...

Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble - and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a recession, and by the end of 2007 the housing bust causing a financial crisis was becoming obvious.

Here is an article from the WSJ in 2007 quoting a crazy blogger: How High Will Subprime Losses Go?

Back in the U.S., the Calculated Risk blog sidestepped the colorful language and went straight for the big number: “The losses for the lenders and investors might well be over $1 trillion.”

Many people thought I was crazy. But losses for lenders and financial institutions ended up over $1 trillion.

Then in 2013 I wrote that there will be another crisis someday: "Each new generation of Wall Street wizards figures out a new way to turn lead into gold, and to become wealthy while damaging the financial system. Some of these wizards are probably perfecting their financial alchemy right now."

The key for the "wizards" was to find a way around the regulatory system, and if they could use leverage, the fool's gold would eventually lead to a crisis.

By 2013 the seeds were planted, not by Wall Street wizards, but by Tech Wizards. Now the seeds have taken root (Of course, I'm talking about cryptocurrency, what Charlie Munger called financial "rat poison").

Last year, researchers at the NY Fed looked at the impact of crypto on the financial system: The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets. And they concluded: "that, to date, the contribution of digital assets to systemic risk has been limited, given that the digital ecosystem is relatively small and not a major provider of financing and payment services to the real economy."

The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system. A good example is the Tulip Bubble in the 1600s. Some people got rich, others were wiped out, but it had no impact on the financial system.

Unfortunately the current administration has embraced crypto. They are allowing it to creep into the financial system, and allowing 401K plans to hold crypto (aka future bagholders). There has been some discussion of allowing financial institutions to lend against crypto holdings - like for a mortgage.  This is mistake and increases the possibility that crypto will be the source of the next financial crisis.

A final note: CNBC should be embarrassed to have crypto prices on their website. 

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2025 08:12:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

In October, sales in these early reporting markets were up 0.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several more early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2025 07:56:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range

Bond markets are closed tomorrow for Veterans Day. When markets reopen on Wednesday, the prospects for ending the government shutdown may be coming into clearer view and that could cause enough market volatility to spill over into rates. If today's trading was any clue, a "reopening" event is more likely to put upward pressure on rates, but today's rate increase could already be reflecting those expectations. [30 year fixed 6.34%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2025 02:38:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Falls Back 7% in October

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 7.1% in October to 283.3 (2000=100) from the upwardly revised reading of 304.8. Over the month, commercial planning declined 2.9% and institutional planning slowed by 15.2%. Year-to-date, the DMI is up 35% from the average reading over the same period in 2024.

“After several months of record-breaking levels, planning momentum slowed in October,” stated Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Activity remains solid across the board, especially for data centers and hospitals. However, recent growth should not solely be attributed to gains in real activity. Anticipated increases in labor and material costs are also driving up project expenses and are inflating the overall trend in the DMI. In the coming months, Dodge anticipates activity to continue to decelerate on average, especially as macroeconomic risks continue to mount.”

On the commercial side, activity slowed down for warehouses and hotels, while planning momentum was sustained for data centers, traditional office buildings and retail stores. On the institutional side, education and healthcare planning have slowed down, after strong activity in recent months. Meanwhile, recreational and public planning continued to grow. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 52% when compared to October 2024. The commercial segment was up 54% (+43% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 49% over the same period.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 283.3 in October, down from 304.8 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.