by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 08:15:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, 6.82% in May and 6.82% in June (somewhat higher than for closed sales in June).

In July, sales in these early reporting markets were up 0.9% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were up 0.9% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 05:46:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Aug. 2

• Active inventory climbed 22.8% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 22.8% year over year, slightly lower than the previous week for the seventh consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 91st consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 13th week in a row over the million-listing threshold and the highest inventory level since late 2019. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.5% year over year

New listings rose just 1.5% last week compared with the same period last year. This marks another slowdown compared with the previous week, in which new listings grew by 5% year over year. Homeowners are less eager to get into the market as inventory continues to build and buyers keep to the sidelines.

• The median list price grew 0.8% year over year

The median list price grew slightly (0.8%) compared with the same week in 2024. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.4% year over year, continuing its nearly two-year growth streak. However, with price-per-square-foot growth slightly lagging overall price growth, it seems that the trend toward more small, affordable homes for sale is stabilizing.

With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 putting downward pressure on house prices in an increasing number of areas.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 10:29:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 August. ...

27 July through 2 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 69.5% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.00 (+0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.90 (+0.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will likely start to decrease seasonally.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 09:15:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in July

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.4, which is still an increase of 2.9% from a year ago, while lower than June levels by 0.5%. The seasonal adjustment muted the results for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values overall fell more than usual for the month. The non-adjusted price in July decreased 1.4% compared to June, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 3.0% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in July (seasonally adjusted) and were up 2.9% YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 221,000 to 221,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 220,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2025 07:27:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2025 01:21:00 PM

Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch.

In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.

In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy.  However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching - especially immigration.

Here is some of the data I'm watching.  

Housing:  Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.

This graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau.  Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are down 8% year-over-year.

Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.  An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.   Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020.  I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.  Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.

The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.  But as I noted earlier, I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates.

There are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.

Yield Curve: The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator.  I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).

Here is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976.

 

The yield curve reverted to normal a year ago and is currently positive at 0.5.  If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming.

Click here for interactive graph at FRED.

Heavy Truck (and Vehicle Sales): Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales.  This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the July 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales were at 455 thousand SAAR in July, up from 443 thousand in June, and down 12.0% from 517 thousand SAAR in July 2024.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales have been a little soft recently.

Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".  Then sales were depressed in May and June.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.   This is more of a concurrent indicator than heavy trucks. 

Light vehicle sales in July (16.41 million SAAR) were up 7.1% from the sales rate in June, and up 3.7% from July 2024

Unemployment: Two other concurrent indicators are the unemployment rate (using the "Sahm Rule") and weekly unemployment claims.

Here is a graph of the Sahm rule from FRED since 1959.

The Sahm Rule was at 0.13 percentage points in July. 

 If this increases to 0.5 it will suggest a possible recession.

Note that this increased to 0.56 in August 2024, but Dr. Sahm (and I) argued this was not indicating a recession.

And weekly unemployment claims always rise sharply at the beginning of a recession (other events - like hurricane Katrina - can cause a temporary spike in weekly claims).

As I noted earlier, I'm not sure how to estimate the economic damage caused by these tariffs and other policies.   The economy is clearly slowing due to policy.

There are also boycotts of U.S. goods and less international tourism based on both the tariffs and the inflammatory rhetoric of the current administration.  

None of these indicators are suggesting a recession.  For now, I'll focus on the leading indicators (especially housing) and I'll update this post monthly while I'm on recession watch.  

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2025 10:20:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.8% Year-over-year ...

The national multifamily vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% this month, setting a new record for our index. We're past the peak of a multifamily construction surge, but the market is still absorbing all of the new units, and vacancies are still trending up.

Realtor.com: 23rd Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

June 2025 marks the 23rd straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties observed since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.

This is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 1, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy. As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Borrowers sought to take advantage of these lower rates, as both purchase and refinance applications increased over the week. Purchase activity continued to lead 2024’s pace, as increasing for-sale inventory of homes has been supporting homebuying, but on the other hand recent weakness in the economic environment has deterred some prospective homebuyers.”

Added Kan, “Refinance applications increased to their strongest pace in four weeks after being on a downward trend the prior three weeks. The refinance share increased to almost 42 percent, its highest level since April.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.77 percent from 6.83 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 18% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased and is picking up a little with lower mortgage rates.

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2025 08:56:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.