by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2025 11:05:00 AM
Tuesday, July 08, 2025
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June
A brief excerpt:
Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.There is much more in the article.
Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged 6.73% in April and 6.82% in May (slightly higher than for closed sales in May).
...
In June, sales in these early reporting markets were up 0.9% YoY. Last month, in May, these same markets were down 5.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There were more working days in June 2025 (20) as in June 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than for the NSA data.
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in June; Up 6% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2025 09:22:00 AM
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increase in June
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in June compared to May. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.5, representing a 6.3% year-over-year increase and a 1.6% rise above May levels. The seasonal adjustment forced the index higher in the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell more than usual following the volatility induced by the tariff announcement. The non-adjusted price in June decreased 1.1% compared to May, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 5.1% year over year.
emphasis added
This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.
Small Business Optimism Index decreased slightly in June
by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2025 08:31:00 AM
Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (currently 1st and 6th on the "Single Most Important Problem" list). During a recession, "poor sales" is usually the top problem and recently "inflation" was number 1.
From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): June 2025 Report: Small Business Optimism Index
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained steady in June, edging down 0.2 of a point to 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline in the index. The Uncertainty Index decreased by five points from May to 89. Nineteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up one point from May and ranking as the top problem again. The last time taxes reached 19 percent was in July 2021.
emphasis added
This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.
Right now for most important problem, after taxes (19%), "Quality of Labor" (16%) is #2, inflation (11%) is #3, and "Poor Sales" (10%) and "Cost of Labor" are tied for #4.
Monday, July 07, 2025
Tuesday: Small Business Index
by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2025 07:48:00 PM
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Continue Higher For Third Straight Day
For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates. During that time, rates were either lower or unchanged every single day. The past few business days have been a different story. [30 year fixed 6.79%]Tuesday:
emphasis added
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.
Update: Lumber Prices Up 26% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2025 02:38:00 PM
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge
by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2025 10:57:00 AM
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge
Brief excerpt:
House Price Growth Continues to Slow
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 1.6% year-over-year in May, down from 2.0% YoY in April. The early look at the June HPI shows a 1.3% YoY increase.
• Mortgage rates in the high 6% range and growing inventory across the country continue to cool home price growthThere is much more in the newsletter.
• Annual price growth eased to 1.6% in May with ICE’s enhanced Home Price Index showing growth slowing further to 1.3% in early June marking the slowest growth rate since mid-2023
• Early June data also shows home prices rose by a modest 0.02% on a seasonally adjusted basis, which is equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +0.3%, suggesting more slowing on the horizon
• Single family prices were up +1.6% from the same time last year, while condo prices were down -1.3%, marking the softest condo market since 2012
• More than half of the top 100 housing markets in the U.S. are seeing condo prices below last year’s levels, with the largest declines in Florida, led by Cape Coral (-12.7%) and North Port (-10.4%)
Housing July 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.7% Week-over-week, Only Down 10% from 2019 Levels
by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday, July 06, 2025
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2025 06:17:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 6, 2025
Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 22 and DOW futures are down 112 (fair value).
Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $66.50 per barrel and Brent at $68.30 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $84, and Brent was at $89 - so WTI oil prices are down about 21% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.46 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.37 year-over-year.
Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force
by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2025 09:52:00 AM
The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through June 2025. Note: This is an update to a post from several years ago.
Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate, with the lowest rate for college graduates at 2.5% in June, and highest for those without a high school degree at 5.8% in June.
All four groups are slightly above pre-pandemic levels now.
Click on graph for larger image.
Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed".
This brings up an interesting question: What is the composition of the labor force by educational attainment, and how has that been changing over time?
Here is some data on the U.S. labor force by educational attainment since 1992.
Currently, almost 67 million people (25 and over) in the U.S. labor force have a bachelor's degree or higher. This is 45% of the labor force, up from 26.2% in 1992.
This is the only category trending up. "Some college", "high school" and "less than high school" have been trending down.
Based on recent trends, probably half the labor force will have at least a bachelor's degree sometime next decade (2030s).
Since workers with bachelor's degrees typically have a lower unemployment rate, rising educational attainment has pushed down, by my rough calculation, the unemployment rate by 0.3% to 0.4% over the last 30 years.
Also, I'd guess more education would mean less labor turnover, and that education is a factor in lower weekly claims over time.
A more educated labor force is a positive for the future.
Saturday, July 05, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: FHFA Releases National Mortgage Database
by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.