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Monday, June 30, 2025

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 01:16:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.23% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in May. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.2% in May, down from up 2.6% YoY in April. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...

Freddie HPI CBSAAs of May, 31 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.7), Colorado (-3.1%), Idaho (-3.0%), Texas (-2.7%), and Florida (-2.2%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 257 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. Cities in Florida (10) and Texas (7) dominate this list.
There is much more in the article!

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 09:51:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

A brief excerpt:

Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q1 2025 (released last Friday).
...
FHFA Percent Mortgage Rate First LienThis shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

Note that a fairly large percentage of mortgage loans were under 4% prior to the pandemic!

The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 53.4%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 71.3%). These low existing mortgage rates made it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.

This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low. However, time is eroding this lock-in effect.
There is much more in the article.

Housing June 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 33.1% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 20% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 28.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.7%), and down 14.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 13.2%). 

This is the highest level since November 2019.

For 2019, this was the week inventory peaked for the year (then moved sideways for several months), so any further increase this year will close to gap to 2019.  It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of June 27th, inventory was at 831 thousand (7-day average), compared to 829 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Sunday Night Futures

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2025 07:08:00 PM

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025

Monday:
• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 17 and DOW futures are up 212 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $65.52 per barrel and Brent at $67.77 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $83, and Brent was at $82 - so WTI oil prices are down about 21% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.17 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.49 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.32 year-over-year.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.3% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2025 08:11:00 AM

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 June. ...

15-21 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 70.5% (+1.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.77 (+2.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$115.39 (+3.3%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase during the summer travel season; however, we will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Thursday.

Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales and the Trade Deficit for May.

----- Monday, June 30th -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Tuesday, July 1st -----

9:30 AM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Policy Panel Discussion, At the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025, Sintra, Portugal

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.8, up from 48.5 in May. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in April to 7.39 million from 7.20 million in March.

The number of job openings were down 3% year-over-year and quits were down 6% year-over-year.

Vehicle SalesLate in the day: Light vehicle sales for June.

The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.5 million SAAR in June, down from 15.6 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

J.D. Power is forecasting sales of 15.0 million SAAR in June.

----- Wednesday, July 2nd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 110,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 37,000 in May.

----- Thursday, July 3rd -----

Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for June.   The consensus is for 129,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.

There were 139,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 239 thousand from 236 thousand last week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $69.8 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $61.6 billion the previous month.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for June.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.8, up from 49.9.

All US markets will close early at 1:00 PM ET in observance of Independence Day

----- Friday, July 4th -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day

Friday, June 27, 2025

Las Vegas in May: Visitor Traffic Down 6.5% YoY; Convention Traffic up 10.7% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 06:15:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With headwinds of ongoing economic uncertainty, the destination hosted approximately 3.4 million visitors in May, down ‐6.5% YoY.

Convention attendance reached approx. 511k for the month (up 10.7%), supported in part by show rotations including LightFair International (8,500 attendees), the Bitcoin conference (30k attendees) and the National Automatic Merchandising Association/NAMA Show (5k attendees). Also, a few shows were held in May this year vs. other months last year, including Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show (7,500 attendees, held in June last year) and PETZONE360 Live (5k attendees, held in April last year.)

Hotel occupancy reached 83.0% for the month, down ‐3.1 pts with Weekend occupancy of 89.9% (down ‐3.5 pts) and Midweek occupancy of 79.3% (down ‐3.2 pts). ADR for the month reached $198 (‐2.2% YoY) with RevPAR of $165 (‐5.7% YoY).
emphasis added
Las Vegas Visitor Traffic Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 6.5% compared to last May.  Visitor traffic was down 7.4% compared to May 2019.

Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 6.1% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Las Vegas Convention Traffic
Convention traffic was up 10.7% compared to May 2024, but down 1.8% compared to May 2019.  

YTD convention traffic is down 5.7% compared to 2019.

Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 02:59:00 PM

There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP.

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at 0%. [June 27th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points. [June 27th estimate]

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 11:12:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in May.

There were several key stories for May:

• Sales NSA are down year-over-year (YoY) through May, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be easier the next several months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.

• Sales SA were down YoY for the 4th consecutive month and 41 of the last 45 months.

• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (tying one month near the start of the pandemic).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.

Sales at 4.03 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were above the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).

Sales averaged close to 5.44 million SAAR for the month of May in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
Local Markets Closed Existing Home SalesIn May, sales in these markets were down 3.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in May were down 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was higher than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were only down 0.7% YoY in May.
...
More local data coming in July for activity in June!
There is much more in the article.