by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 01:16:00 PM
Monday, June 30, 2025
Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.23% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in May. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.2% in May, down from up 2.6% YoY in April. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...There is much more in the article!
As of May, 31 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.7), Colorado (-3.1%), Idaho (-3.0%), Texas (-2.7%), and Florida (-2.2%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 257 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. Cities in Florida (10) and Texas (7) dominate this list.
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 09:51:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
A brief excerpt:
Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q1 2025 (released last Friday).There is much more in the article.
...
This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.
Note that a fairly large percentage of mortgage loans were under 4% prior to the pandemic!
The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 53.4%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 71.3%). These low existing mortgage rates made it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.
This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low. However, time is eroding this lock-in effect.
Housing June 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2025 07:08:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025
Monday:
• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.
• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 17 and DOW futures are up 212 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $65.52 per barrel and Brent at $67.77 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $83, and Brent was at $82 - so WTI oil prices are down about 21% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.17 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.49 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.32 year-over-year.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.3% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2025 08:11:00 AM
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 June. ...The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
15-21 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):
• Occupancy: 70.5% (+1.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.77 (+2.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$115.39 (+3.3%)
emphasis added
The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.
Saturday, June 28, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025
by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Thursday.
Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales and the Trade Deficit for May.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
9:30 AM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Policy Panel Discussion, At the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025, Sintra, Portugal
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.8, up from 48.5 in May.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.
This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings increased in April to 7.39 million from 7.20 million in March.
The number of job openings were down 3% year-over-year and quits were down 6% year-over-year.
The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.5 million SAAR in June, down from 15.6 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
J.D. Power is forecasting sales of 15.0 million SAAR in June.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 110,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 37,000 in May.
There were 139,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.
This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 239 thousand from 236 thousand last week.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is the trade deficit to be $69.8 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $61.6 billion the previous month.
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for June. The consensus is for a reading of 50.8, up from 49.9.
All US markets will close early at 1:00 PM ET in observance of Independence Day
All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day
Friday, June 27, 2025
Las Vegas in May: Visitor Traffic Down 6.5% YoY; Convention Traffic up 10.7% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 06:15:00 PM
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics
With headwinds of ongoing economic uncertainty, the destination hosted approximately 3.4 million visitors in May, down ‐6.5% YoY.
Convention attendance reached approx. 511k for the month (up 10.7%), supported in part by show rotations including LightFair International (8,500 attendees), the Bitcoin conference (30k attendees) and the National Automatic Merchandising Association/NAMA Show (5k attendees). Also, a few shows were held in May this year vs. other months last year, including Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show (7,500 attendees, held in June last year) and PETZONE360 Live (5k attendees, held in April last year.)
Hotel occupancy reached 83.0% for the month, down ‐3.1 pts with Weekend occupancy of 89.9% (down ‐3.5 pts) and Midweek occupancy of 79.3% (down ‐3.2 pts). ADR for the month reached $198 (‐2.2% YoY) with RevPAR of $165 (‐5.7% YoY).
emphasis added
The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).
Visitor traffic was down 6.5% compared to last May. Visitor traffic was down 7.4% compared to May 2019.
Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 02:59:00 PM
There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP.
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at 0%. [June 27th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points. [June 27th estimate]
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 11:12:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in May.There is much more in the article.
There were several key stories for May:
• Sales NSA are down year-over-year (YoY) through May, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be easier the next several months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.
• Sales SA were down YoY for the 4th consecutive month and 41 of the last 45 months.
• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (tying one month near the start of the pandemic).
• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.
Sales at 4.03 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were above the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).
Sales averaged close to 5.44 million SAAR for the month of May in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In May, sales in these markets were down 3.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in May were down 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.
Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was higher than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were only down 0.7% YoY in May.
...
More local data coming in July for activity in June!