by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.3% Year-over-year
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 June. ...The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
15-21 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):
• Occupancy: 70.5% (+1.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.77 (+2.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$115.39 (+3.3%)
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The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.
Saturday, June 28, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025
by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Thursday.
Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales and the Trade Deficit for May.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
9:30 AM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Policy Panel Discussion, At the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025, Sintra, Portugal
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.8, up from 48.5 in May.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.
This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings increased in April to 7.39 million from 7.20 million in March.
The number of job openings were down 3% year-over-year and quits were down 6% year-over-year.
The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.5 million SAAR in June, down from 15.6 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
J.D. Power is forecasting sales of 15.0 million SAAR in June.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 110,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 37,000 in May.
There were 139,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.
This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 239 thousand from 236 thousand last week.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is the trade deficit to be $69.8 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $61.6 billion the previous month.
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for June. The consensus is for a reading of 50.8, up from 49.9.
All US markets will close early at 1:00 PM ET in observance of Independence Day
All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day
Friday, June 27, 2025
Las Vegas in May: Visitor Traffic Down 6.5% YoY; Convention Traffic up 10.7% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 06:15:00 PM
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics
With headwinds of ongoing economic uncertainty, the destination hosted approximately 3.4 million visitors in May, down ‐6.5% YoY.
Convention attendance reached approx. 511k for the month (up 10.7%), supported in part by show rotations including LightFair International (8,500 attendees), the Bitcoin conference (30k attendees) and the National Automatic Merchandising Association/NAMA Show (5k attendees). Also, a few shows were held in May this year vs. other months last year, including Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show (7,500 attendees, held in June last year) and PETZONE360 Live (5k attendees, held in April last year.)
Hotel occupancy reached 83.0% for the month, down ‐3.1 pts with Weekend occupancy of 89.9% (down ‐3.5 pts) and Midweek occupancy of 79.3% (down ‐3.2 pts). ADR for the month reached $198 (‐2.2% YoY) with RevPAR of $165 (‐5.7% YoY).
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The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).
Visitor traffic was down 6.5% compared to last May. Visitor traffic was down 7.4% compared to May 2019.
Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 02:59:00 PM
There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP.
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]From Goldman:
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We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at 0%. [June 27th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points. [June 27th estimate]
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 11:12:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in May.There is much more in the article.
There were several key stories for May:
• Sales NSA are down year-over-year (YoY) through May, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be easier the next several months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.
• Sales SA were down YoY for the 4th consecutive month and 41 of the last 45 months.
• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (tying one month near the start of the pandemic).
• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.
Sales at 4.03 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were above the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).
Sales averaged close to 5.44 million SAAR for the month of May in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In May, sales in these markets were down 3.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in May were down 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.
Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was higher than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were only down 0.7% YoY in May.
...
More local data coming in July for activity in June!
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.1% YoY in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 08:55:00 AM
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through May 2025.
CPI Shelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.0% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
Key measures are below the Fed's target on a 3-month basis.
3-month annualized change:
Core PCE Prices: 1.7%
Core minus Housing: 1.1%
There appears to be some residual seasonality, especially in Q1.
Personal Income Decreased 0.4% in May; Spending Decreased 0.1%
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 08:30:00 AM
From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025
Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent).The May PCE price index increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.1 percent YoY in April, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 2.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent from one year ago.
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The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income and PCE were below expectations.
Using the two-month method to estimate Q2 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 2.4% annual rate in Q2 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 2.0%). This suggests moderate PCE growth in Q2.
Thursday, June 26, 2025
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, PCE Inflation
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 07:59:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.5% YoY.
• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June).
• At 4:30 PM: Federal Reserve Board announces results from its annual bank stress test
Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since December 2019
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2025 03:29:00 PM
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of June 21
• Active inventory climbed 27.5% year over year
The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 27.5% higher than this time last year. This represents the 85th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the eighth week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since December 2019.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 3.5% year over year
New listings rose again last week on an annual basis, up 3.5% compared with the same period last year. ... This will be an important trend to watch, especially as regional real estate dynamics diverge and the market gradually shifts back in favor of buyers.
• The median list price was up 0.9% year over year
The median list price climbed again this week, but it’s still down 0.3% year to date. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.7% year over year. With inventory growing and 1 in 5 sellers slashing prices, the pendulum is swinging back toward a balanced market, as price growth slows and buyers gain more leverage.