by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 02:09:00 PM

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.

The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.

The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).

Click on graph for larger image.

The number of salesperson's licenses started increasing again in 2014 (after house prices bottomed), and peaked again in early 2024 (ignoring weird pandemic distortion).

The number of salesperson's licenses is down 1.4% year-over-year. 

Brokers' licenses are off 21% from the peak and are still slowly declining (down 2.3% year-over-year).

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 11:11:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.7% q/q saar and 1Q GDP is down one-tenth to -0.1% q/q saar. [June 13th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

The details of the trade balance report indicated that April exports were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +3.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and left our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at -0.5%. [June 5th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 9, unchanged from June 5 after rounding. [June 9th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 08:17:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 7, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 27.7% year over year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 27.7% higher than this time last year. This represents the 83rd consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the sixth week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since December 2019.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 5.2% year over year

New listings rose again last week on an annual basis, up 5.2% compared with the same period last year, a slightly faster growth compared with the previous week. The momentum that began earlier this spring remains strong ...

• The median list price was up 0.5% year over year

The median list price increased 0.5% year over year this week as elevated prices persist into the summer. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.8% year over year.

With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (excluding start of pandemic) putting downward pressure on house prices in certain areas.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 08:37:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for June).

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 04:00:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 June

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 June. ...

1-7 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 67.0% (-3.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.57 (0.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.23 (-3.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase with the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 12:59:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q1 2025, mortgage debt increased $45 billion, down from $112 billion in Q4. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 12:00:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $169.3 trillion during the first quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $2.3 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.2 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  

Net worth decreased $1.6 trillion in Q1.  As a percent of GDP, net worth decreased in Q1 and is below the peak in 2021.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q1 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 72.0% - down from 72.2% in Q4, 2024

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $45 billion in Q1.

Mortgage debt is up $2.78 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 44.8% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q1 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,000 to 235,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 07:37:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 239 thousand, up from 247 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 12:00 PM, Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 01:00:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

I’ve rearranged these looks at local data with closed sales first, new listings second and active inventory at the end.

I’ve also spelled Raleigh correctly!
...
In May, sales in these early reporting markets were down 3.9% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.