by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2025 10:25:00 AM
Monday, June 09, 2025
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025
A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-June provides a snapshot of the current housing market.There is much more in the article.
First, a quote from Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley Jr.:“The spring selling season, which is really a winter selling season, is when most new homes are sold in this country. It's mid January until the end of April, and the reason for that is most people want to move into their new home for the next school year. So you [homebuilders] better get [the buyer] under contract and get it going in February, March, April, to have it completed by the school year. That's what provides for our business. And this was not a good spring.It was not a “good Spring” for new homebuilders, but it wasn’t horrible. However, homebuilders have a growing number of completed homes for sales, a larger than normal number of unsold homes under construction and are competing with more existing home inventory.
emphasis added”
And the key stories for existing homes are that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices will be under pressure ...
Realtor.com reports in the May 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 7.2% year-over-year in May. And active listings were up 31.5% year-over-year.
Homebuyers found more options in May, as the number of actively listed homes rose 31.5% compared to the same time last year. This builds on April’s 30.6% increase and marks the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year inventory gains. The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the first time since Winter 2019 and exceeded 2020 levels for the second month in a row, a key pandemic recovery benchmark. Still, inventory remains 14.4% below typical 2017–2019 levels, though May’s gains indicate the market is closing the gap at an accelerating pace.
Housing June 9th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week, Up 32.2% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday, June 08, 2025
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 6/08/2025 06:36:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 8, 2025
Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 7 and DOW futures are down 35 (fair value).
Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $64.58 per barrel and Brent at $66.47 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $78 - so WTI oil prices are down about 16% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.08 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.40 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.32 year-over-year.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 4% in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/08/2025 08:07:00 AM
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 4% in May
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 3.7% in May to 211.2 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised April reading of 203.5. Over the month, commercial planning grew 0.8% while institutional planning improved 10.5%.
“Nonresidential planning continued to accelerate in May, primarily driven by strong project activity on the institutional side of the DMI,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Planning momentum moderately improved on the commercial side as well, following subdued growth in that sector over the last few months – outside of data centers. Increased economic and policy uncertainty will continue to contribute to heightened volatility in the project data - but in aggregate, planning activity is on steady footing.”
After a very strong April, data center projects returned to more typical levels in May and constrained overall commercial planning. Without data center projects, the commercial portion of the DMI would have improved 5% and the entire DMI would have grown 7% over the month. Accelerated warehouse and hotel planning drove the commercial portion of the Index, while office and retail planning remained flat. On the institutional side, a strong uptick in education and recreational projects drove this month’s gains, partially offset by a mild slowdown in healthcare planning.
In May, the DMI was up 24% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 15% from May 2024, and the institutional segment was up 47% after a weak May last year. If all data center projects between 2023 and 2025 are excluded, commercial planning would be up 4% from year-ago levels and the entire DMI would be up 17%.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 211.2 in May, up from 203.5 the previous month.
According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.
Saturday, June 07, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Fannie Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Jan 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in April
• Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May
• June ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of June 8, 2025
by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key report this week is May CPI.
No major economic releases scheduled.
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 2.5% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 2.9% YoY).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 239 thousand, up from 247 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.
12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for June).
Friday, June 06, 2025
June 6th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 07:39:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
Deaths per Week | 250✅ | 277 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. |
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2020.
AAR: Rail "Intermodal Slips, But Carloads Hold Steady Amid Continued Uncertainty"
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 05:00:00 PM
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Rail freight volumes in May 2025 tell a story of an industry navigating crosscurrents. On one side, carload traffic showed solid growth, reflecting resilience in key sectors of the domestic economy. On the other, intermodal container volumes barely eked out a gain, hinting at softening global trade and cautious consumer demand. Mixed economic signals – from cooling manufacturing output to consumers pulling back on goods purchases – underscore the uncertainty facing railroads. Recent data on factory activity, consumer spending, and housing all paint a cautionary picture for the coming months, even as the labor market remains a relative bright spot.
Total U.S. rail carloads rose 5.9% in May 2025 compared with a year ago (about 50,000 extra carloads), a slight step down from April’s 6.2% growth. Year-to-date carloads through May were up 2.5% versus the same period in 2024.
emphasis added
By contrast, intermodal volume (containers and trailers) barely grew, rising only 0.6% in May year over-year (around +6,200 units). This marks the 21st consecutive month of year-over-year intermodal gains, but notably it’s the weakest percentage increase of that entire streak. In fact, average weekly intermodal loadings in May (about 259,400 units) were the lowest in a year and essentially equal to the 10-year May average.
Tracking with declines in port activity and lower import volumes, rail traffic saw its first non-holiday intermodal declines since September 2023 to end the month with volumes falling ~1.5%–1.8% compared to the same weeks a year ago. Time will tell if this two-week trend continues or if shippers and retailers are becoming more cautious,
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 01:46:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May
A brief excerpt:
Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.There is much more in the article.
Closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged 6.65% in March and 6.73% in April. This was a decrease from the average rate for homes that closed in April.
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to May 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
...
In May, sales in these early reporting markets were down 5.5% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 0.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.
Note that most of these early reporting markets have shown stronger year-over-year sales than most other markets for the last several months.
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!
Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Up
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 01:11:00 PM
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is up to 2.7% q/q saar from 1.8% q/q saar and 1Q GDP is up two-tenths to 0.0% q/q saar. [June 6th estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
The details of the trade balance report indicated that April exports were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +3.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and left our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at -0.5%. [June 5th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 5, down from 4.6 percent on June 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -2.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to annualized second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.36 percentage points to 2.01 percentage points. [June 5th estimate]