by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 04:58:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 31, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 29.5% year over year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 29.5% higher than this time last year. This represents the 82nd consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the fourth week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since December 2019.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 4.2% year over year

New listings rose again last week on an annual basis, up 4.2% compared with the same period last year, though growth slowed compared with the previous week. Monday’s Memorial Day holiday likely affected listing activity for the week. The momentum that began earlier this spring remains strong ...

• The median list price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat year over year this week as sticky prices persist into the summer. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.9% year over year.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 82nd consecutive week.  

New listings increased.

Median list prices were mostly unchanged year-over-year.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 02:59:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 31 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 31 May. ...

25-31 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 61.0% (-1.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$151.48 (-0.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$92.45 (-1.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will start to increase with the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 01:00:00 PM

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 177,000 jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.

From Goldman Sachs:

While the employment component of the ISM services index improved, it remained at a weak level and the ADP measure of job growth was much weaker than expected. We have lowered our forecast for nonfarm payroll growth by 15k to +110k, below consensus of +126k.
emphasis added

From BofA:

Payrolls are likely to rise by a stable 150k after coming in at 177k in April. This is slightly higher than consensus expectations of 130k. Claims in the survey week remained at muted levels. Firms likely paused the hiring of trade & transportation workers after the front-loading driven increase in the previous months. But given elevated uncertainty about the steady state on tariff policy, we don’t think they would have already started shedding workers. Risks are to the downside, in our view. We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.2%.

• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 37,000 private sector jobs were added in May.  This was well below consensus forecasts and suggests job gains below consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.

• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index was at 46.8%, up from 46.5% the previous month.   This would suggest some jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 3,000 manufacturing jobs lost in May.

The ISM® services employment index was at 50.7%, up from 49.0% the previous month.   This is still weak, but would suggest some jobs added in services. The ADP report indicated 36,000 service jobs added in May.

• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 226,000 in May compared to 216,000 in April.  This suggests layoffs in May were about the same or a little more than in April.

• Conclusion: Over the last year, employment gains averaged 157 thousand per month - and that was probably the trend prior to policy changes.  It still seems early for policy to significantly impact the employment report.   However, my guess is we will start to see the impact of policy uncertainty - a little hiring hesitancy - and I'll take the under for May.

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 08:50:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $61.6 billion in April, down $76.7 billion from $138.3 billion in March, revised.

April exports were $289.4 billion, $8.3 billion more than March exports. April imports were $351.0 billion, $68.4 billion less than March imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased and imports increased in April.

Exports were up 8.6% year-over-year; imports were up 3.4% year-over-year.

Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  Exports likely increased in April as foreign importers rushed to beat retaliatory tariffs.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $17.2 billion from $20.1 billion a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 247,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 240,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 230,750 to 230,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 235,000.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 07:30:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $117.3 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $140.5 Billion in March.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 230 thousand, down from 240 thousand last week.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 04:00:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book

Reports across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report. Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions. Manufacturing activity declined slightly. Consumer spending reports were mixed, with most Districts reporting slight declines or no change; however, some Districts reported increases in spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs. Residential real estate sales were little changed, and most District reports on new home construction indicate flat or slowing construction activity. Reports on bank loan demand and capital spending plans were mixed. Activity at ports was robust, while reports on transportation and warehouse activity in other areas were mixed. On balance, the outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report. However, a few District reports indicate the outlook has deteriorated while a few others indicate the outlook has improved.

Labor Markets

Employment has been little changed since the previous report. Most Districts described employment as flat, three Districts reported slight-to-modest increases, and two Districts reported slight declines. Many Districts reported lower employee turnover rates and more applicants for open positions. Comments about uncertainty delaying hiring were widespread. All Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans. Some Districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, but these layoffs were not pervasive. Two Districts noted that, for many of their contacts, hiring plans had not changed since the start of the year. Wages continued to grow at a modest pace, although many Districts reported a general easing in wage pressures. A few Districts indicated that higher costs of living continued to put upward pressure on wages.

Prices

Prices have increased at a moderate pace since the previous report. There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial. All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices. However, contacts' responses to these higher costs varied, including increasing prices on affected items, increasing prices on all items, reducing profit margins, and adding temporary fees or surcharges. Contacts that plan to pass along tariff-related costs expect to do so within three months.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 12:58:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:

This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.
...
This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions based on the Q1 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released last week. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was up 5% YOY from $742 million in Q1 2024 to $784 million in Q1 2025. This is historically extremely low.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 10:51:00 AM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 446 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 446 thousand SAAR in May, down from 457 thousand in April, and down 7.9% from 484 thousand SAAR in May 2024.  

Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 4.6%.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales were OK in May.  

As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales declined in May to 15.65 million SAAR.  We are starting to see some payback from the "beat the tariffs" surge in March and April.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.  

Light vehicle sales were at 15.65 million SAAR in May, down 9.3% from April, and down 1.1% from May 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 49.9%, down from 51.6% last month. The employment index increased to 50.7%, from 49.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 49.9% May 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector contracted in May, the first time since June 2024, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated slight contraction at 49.9 percent, below the 50-percent breakeven point for only the fourth time in 60 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In May, the Services PMI® registered 49.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the April figure of 51.6 percent. The Business Activity Index was ‘unchanged’ in May, registering 50 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the 53.7 percent recorded in April. This is the index’s first month out of expansion territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index dropped into contraction territory in May, recording a reading of 46.4 percent, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points from the April figure of 52.3 percent. The Employment Index returned to expansion after two months in contraction; the reading of 50.7 percent is 1.7 percentage points higher than the 49 percent recorded in April and is the second straight month-over-month gain.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.5 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the 51.3 percent recorded in April. This is the sixth consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 68.7 percent in May, a 3.6-percentage point increase from April’s reading of 65.1 percent; the index has elevated 7.8 percentage points in the last two months to reach its highest level since November 2022 (69.4 percent). This is the first time the index has recorded this high of a two-month increase since a 9.2-percentage point gain in February and March 2021. The May reading is also its sixth in a row above 60 percent.

The Inventories Index returned to contraction territory in May, registering 49.7 percent, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from April’s figure of 53.4 percent. This is the second time the index has contracted in 2025. The Inventory Sentiment Index expanded for the 25th consecutive month, registering 62.9 percent, up 6.8 percentage points from April’s figure of 56.1 percent and its highest reading since July 2024 (63.2 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.4 percent in May, a 4.6-percentage point decrease from the April figure of 48 percent, indicating contraction for the ninth time in the last 10 months and its lowest reading since August 2023 (41.8 percent).

“Ten industries reported growth in May, down one from the 11 industries reported in April. The Services PMI® has contracted in only four of the last 60 months dating back to June 2020. The May reading of 49.9 percent is 2.4 percentage points below the 12-month average reading of 52.3 percent.”

Miller continues, “May’s PMI® level is not indicative of a severe contraction, but rather uncertainty that is being expressed broadly among ISM Services Business Survey panelists. The average reading of 50.8 percent over the last three months still indicates expansion in that time period, but it is a notable shift of 2 percentage points below its average of 52.8 percent over the previous nine months. The New Orders Index moved into contraction territory for the first time in nearly a year. Tariff impacts are likely elevating prices paid by services sector companies, with the Prices Index hitting its highest level since November 2022, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI indicated that prices had increased 7.1 percent as compared to November 2021. Respondents continued to report difficulty in forecasting and planning due to longer-term tariff uncertainty and frequently cited efforts to delay or minimize ordering until impacts become clearer.”
emphasis added

This was below consensus expectations for a reading of 52.0.