by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 07:39:00 PM
Friday, May 30, 2025
May 30th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
Deaths per Week | 267✅ | 310 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. |
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2020.
Q2 GDP Tracking: Wide Range due to Trade "Distortions"
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 02:09:00 PM
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to +1.8% q/q saar. [May 30th estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
The goods trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in April, reflecting a sharp decline in goods imports and a moderate increase in goods exports. The Advance Economic Indicators report indicated a significantly larger decline in imports than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the personal income and spending report were modestly softer than our previous assumptions. On net, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 1.0pp to +3.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.6%. We continue to see the headline Q1 and Q2 GDP growth readings as distorted measures of economic growth because of measurement challenges related to swings in imports around tariff increases. [May 30th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.64 percentage points to 1.45 percentage points, while the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.7 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent. [May 30th estimate]
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 01:10:00 PM
The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 24 May. ...The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
18-24 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):
• Occupancy: 67.5% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.57 (+1.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.02 (+1.1%)
emphasis added
The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.
Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 10:09:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.15% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.6% in April, down from up 2.9% YoY in March. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...There is much more in the article!
As of April, 26 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.3), Colorado (-2.4%), Oregon (-2.0%), Montana (-1.7%) and Florida (-1.7%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.2% YoY in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:53:00 AM
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2025.
CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
Key measures are slightly above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis.
3-month annualized change:
Core PCE Prices: 2.7%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%
Note: It is likely there is still some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1.
Personal Income increased 0.8% in April; Spending increased 0.2%
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:30:00 AM
From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025
Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).The April PCE price index increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.3 percent YoY in March, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $48.6 billion in April. Personal saving was $1.12 trillion in April and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.9 percent.
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for April increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1 percent.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was above expectations and PCE were at expectations.
Thursday, May 29, 2025
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 07:21:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.5% YoY.
• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May.
• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 50.8.
Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 01:08:00 PM
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 24, 2025
• Active inventory climbed 29.7% year-over-year
The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 29.7% higher than this time last year. This represents the 81st consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, the highest inventory level since December 2019.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rising 8.2% year-over-year
New listings rose again last week, up 8.2% compared to the same period last year.
• The median list price was up 0.2% year-over-year
After a brief cooling period the previous week, the national median listing price resumed its upward trajectory last week. At the same time, the median listing price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.9% year-over-year.
Inventory was up year-over-year for the 81st consecutive week.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 6.3% in April; Down 2.5% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 10:00:00 AM
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April
Pending home sales decreased 6.3% in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions. Year-over-year, contract signings rose in the Midwest but descended in the Northeast, South and West – with the West suffering the greatest loss.Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in May and June.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dove 6.3% to 71.3 in April. Year-over-year, pending transactions retracted by 2.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
"At this critical stage of the housing market, it is all about mortgage rates," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market."
...
The Northeast PHSI decreased 0.6% from last month to 62.1, down 3.0% from April 2024. The Midwest index condensed 5.0% to 73.5 in April, up 2.2% from the previous year.
The South PHSI sank 7.7% to 85.9 in April, down 3.0% from a year ago. The West index degraded 8.9% from the prior month to 53.3, down 6.5% from April 2024.
emphasis added
Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to -0.2% Annual Rate
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 08:35:00 AM
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised down from 1.8% to 1.2%. Residential investment was revised down from 1.3% to -0.6%.
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting an upward revision to investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.
emphasis added