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Friday, May 30, 2025

May 30th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 07:39:00 PM

Mortgage RatesNote: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
 NowWeek
Ago
Goal
Deaths per Week267✅310≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts.
🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths.
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Deaths per WeekClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2020.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2024 (previous pandemic low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths moved above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are below the goal for several weeks.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 29th:

COVID-19 WastewaterThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is close to the lows of May 2024.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Very Low".

Q2 GDP Tracking: Wide Range due to Trade "Distortions"

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 02:09:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to +1.8% q/q saar. [May 30th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
The goods trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in April, reflecting a sharp decline in goods imports and a moderate increase in goods exports. The Advance Economic Indicators report indicated a significantly larger decline in imports than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the personal income and spending report were modestly softer than our previous assumptions. On net, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 1.0pp to +3.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.6%. We continue to see the headline Q1 and Q2 GDP growth readings as distorted measures of economic growth because of measurement challenges related to swings in imports around tariff increases. [May 30th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.64 percentage points to 1.45 percentage points, while the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.7 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent. [May 30th estimate]

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 01:10:00 PM

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 24 May. ...

18-24 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 67.5% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.57 (+1.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.02 (+1.1%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways for a couple more weeks until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 10:09:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.15% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.6% in April, down from up 2.9% YoY in March. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...

Freddie HPI CBSAAs of April, 26 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.3), Colorado (-2.4%), Oregon (-2.0%), Montana (-1.7%) and Florida (-1.7%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.
There is much more in the article!

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.2% YoY in April

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:53:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2025.

ShelterCPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.


Housing (PCE) was up 4.2% YoY in April, down from 4.3% in March and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

PCE Prices 6-Month AnnualizedThe second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are slightly above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 2.1%
Core PCE Prices: 2.7%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%

Note: It is likely there is still some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1.

Personal Income increased 0.8% in April; Spending increased 0.2%

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025

Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $48.6 billion in April. Personal saving was $1.12 trillion in April and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.9 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for April increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added
The April PCE price index increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.3 percent YoY in March, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.5 percent YoY, down from 2.6 percent the previous month, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was above expectations and PCE were at expectations.

Inflation was slightly below expectations.

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 07:21:00 PM

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.5% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May.

• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 50.8.

Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 01:08:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 


 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.7% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 24, 2025
Active inventory climbed 29.7% year-over-year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 29.7% higher than this time last year. This represents the 81st consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, the highest inventory level since December 2019.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rising 8.2% year-over-year

New listings rose again last week, up 8.2% compared to the same period last year.

The median list price was up 0.2% year-over-year

After a brief cooling period the previous week, the national median listing price resumed its upward trajectory last week. At the same time, the median listing price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.9% year-over-year.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 81st consecutive week.  

New listings were solid.

Median list prices were mostly unchanged year-over-year.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 6.3% in April; Down 2.5% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April

Pending home sales decreased 6.3% in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions. Year-over-year, contract signings rose in the Midwest but descended in the Northeast, South and West – with the West suffering the greatest loss.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dove 6.3% to 71.3 in April. Year-over-year, pending transactions retracted by 2.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"At this critical stage of the housing market, it is all about mortgage rates," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market."
...
The Northeast PHSI decreased 0.6% from last month to 62.1, down 3.0% from April 2024. The Midwest index condensed 5.0% to 73.5 in April, up 2.2% from the previous year.

The South PHSI sank 7.7% to 85.9 in April, down 3.0% from a year ago. The West index degraded 8.9% from the prior month to 53.3, down 6.5% from April 2024.
emphasis added
Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in May and June.

Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to -0.2% Annual Rate

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 08:35:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting an upward revision to investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.
emphasis added
Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised down from 1.8% to 1.2%. Residential investment was revised down from 1.3% to -0.6%.