by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 08:45:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.2 percent from April 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent from April 2024. ... The February 2025 to March 2025 percent change was revised from up 1.5 percent to up 1.7 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in April.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.2% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in April were at expectations.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 228,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 227,000 to 227,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 230,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2025 07:15:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 230 thousand, up from 228 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for April are scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.1% increase in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of -7.1, up from -8.1.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of -8.5, up from -26.4.

• At 8:40 AM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Framework Review, At the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.8%.

• At 10:00 AM, The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 40 up from 39 last month.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2025 01:26:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025

A brief excerpt:

Last Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that the key story right now for existing homes is that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year. That means prices will be under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales). And there are significant regional differences too.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in February and will likely be lower year-over-year in the March report compared to February (based on other data).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.26% (a 3.1% annual rate), This was the 25th consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2025 10:36:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q1 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Increase

A brief excerpt:

The transition rate to serious delinquent is generally increasing and foreclosures are close to pre-pandemic levels. The Q1 increase is likely due to the end of the VA foreclosure moratorium.
...
There is much more in the report.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 9, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.4 percent from the previous week and was 44 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Last week saw steadier mortgage rates, as the FOMC meeting played as predicted, and market movements led to a small two-basis point increase in the 30-year conforming rate to 6.86 percent,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance volume was little changed for the week, with a small increase in government refinances, and a decrease in conventional refinances. The news for the week was the growth in purchase applications, up 2.3 percent and almost 18 percent higher than last year’s pace. Despite the economic uncertainty, the increase in home inventory means there are additional properties to buy, unlike the last two years, and this supply is supporting more transactions.”

Added Fratantoni, “There was a notable gain in government purchase applications, up almost 5 percent for the week and 40 percent on an annual basis.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.86 percent from 6.84 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 18% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October 2023 and is 10% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased and remained very low.

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2025 07:56:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2025 12:39:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (unchanged from 3.5% YoY in March), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (unchanged from 3.0%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.8% (unchanged from 2.8%). 

Core PCE is for March was up 2.7% YoY, down from 2.8% in February.  

Based on the CPI report this morning, Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.6% YoY in April.

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2025 11:14:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Change in Household Debt Balances Mixed; Student Loan Delinquencies Rise Sharply

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $167 billion (0.9%) in Q1 2025, to $18.20 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining student loan delinquency, including which borrowers were past due in the first quarter and implications for their access to other credit.

“Transition rates into serious delinquency have leveled off for credit card and auto loans over the past year,” said Daniel Mangrum, Research Economist at the New York Fed. “However, the first batch of past due student loans were reported in the first quarter of 2025, resulting in a large jump in seriously delinquent borrowers.”

Credit card balances fell by $29 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.18 trillion at the end of March 2025. Auto loan balances also declined by $13 billion, representing the second drop from one subsequent quarter since 2011, and totaled $1.64 trillion. Mortgage balances grew by $199 billion and stood at $12.80 trillion. HELOC balances rose by $6 billion to $402 billion, representing the twelfth consecutive quarterly increase. Student loan balances grew by $16 billion and now stand at $1.63 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, fell by $12 billion.

The pace of mortgage originations increased slightly, with $426 billion newly originated mortgages in Q1 2025. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased moderately by $77 billion, representing a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter.

Aggregate delinquency rates increased from the previous quarter, with 4.3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types, with the exception of student loans. Student loans saw a large uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly five-year pause due to the pandemic. Transition into serious delinquency remained stable for auto loans, credit cards, and other debt.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are three graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q1.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $167 billion in the first quarter of 2025, a 0.9% rise from 2024Q4. Balances now stand at $18.20 trillion and have increased by $4.06 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate increased in Q1.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates increased in the first quarter of 2025. As of the end of March, 4.3 percent of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter. Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for student loans, which saw a large uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly 5-year pause due to the pandemic. Transition rates into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, remained stable for auto loans and credit cards, and saw increases for mortgages, HELOCs, and student loans.

The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score.

From the NY Fed:

The volume of mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, increased slightly with $426 billion newly originated in 2025Q1. ... Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits continued to rise and saw a $3 billion increase.

There is much more in the report.

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2025 10:48:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2025

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2025

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.04 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased year-over-year from 0.46 percent in Q1 2024 to 0.49 percent in Q1 2025 (red) but remains historically low.
...
The primary concern is the increase in FHA and VA delinquency rates. Some of the recent increase is probably due to the hurricanes last year and wildfires in California.

There is much more in the article.