by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 12:26:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For the Charlotte Region:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 5,189, down 10.5% from 5,796 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,073, down 42.2% from 7,045 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 0.8 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.6 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 17.6% from last month, and up 49.0% from the record low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 11:12:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in July. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for July here. "Lodging away from home" was up 101% annualized in July, however "Used cars and trucks" were down 43% annualized (reversing some of the previous increase).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.3%. Core PCE is for June and increased 3.5% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 09:13:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Colorado Association of REALTORS® for the entire state:

Closed sales for Single Family and Townhouse-Condo in July 2021 were 12,417, down 13.4% from 14,338 in July 2020.

Active Listings for Single Family and Townhouse-Condo in July 2021 were 11,126, down 49.3% from 21,959 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.0 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.2 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 6.9% from last month, and up 27.3% from the record low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 08:32:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for shelter, food, energy, and new vehicles all increased in July and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The food index increased 0.7 percent in July as five of the major grocery store food group indexes rose, and the food away from home index increased 0.8 percent. The energy index rose 1.6 percent in July, as the gasoline index increased 2.4 percent and other energy component indexes also rose.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July after increasing 0.9 percent in June. Along with shelter and new vehicles, the indexes for recreation, for medical care, and for personal care increased in July. The index for used cars also increased in July, but the 0.2-percent advance was much smaller than in recent months. The index for motor vehicle insurance declined in July, and the index for airline fares fell slightly.

The all items index rose 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending July, the same increase as the period ending June. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.3 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index rose 23.8 percent. The food index increased 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending July, compared to a 2.4-percent rise for the period ending June.
emphasis added

CPI was at expectations, and core CPI was slightly below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 6, 2021.

... The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications rebounded last week, including an increase in purchase applications for the first time in nearly a month. Rates slightly rose but remained below 3 percent, driven by an end-of-week increase in the 10-year Treasury yield following the positive July jobs report,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Homeowners continue to respond to lower rates, with refinance activity climbing to the highest level since February 2021. The refinance share of loan counts was at 68 percent, compared to a 63.4 percent share for refinances by dollar volume, as purchase loans continue to see significantly higher loan sizes.”

Added Kan, “The higher level of purchase activity last week was driven by more government purchase applications, including a 3.3 percent increase in FHA loans. With low for-sale inventory keeping home-price appreciation in many markets at record highs, the jump in FHA purchase applications is potentially a sign that more first-time buyers are finding purchase options despite the high prices.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 2.99 percent from 2.97 percent, with points decreasing to 0.30 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 18% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity picked up in late May 2020.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2021 09:00:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2021 07:40:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From SacRealtor.org: Median sales price dips, inventory rises

July closed ended with 1,574 sales, an 8.6% decrease from June (1,723). Compared to one year ago (1,772), the current figure is down 11.2%.
...
The Active Listing Inventory increased 23.5% from June to July, from 1,297 units to 1,602 units. Compared with June 2020 (1,266), inventory is up 26.5%. The Months of Inventory increased from .8 Months to 1 Month. This figure represents the amount of time (in months) it would take for the current rate of sales to deplete the total active listing inventory.
emphasis added

Note that inventory in July was up 23.5% from last month, and up 123% from the record low in January 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2021 05:22:00 PM

Congratulations to the residents of Rhode Island on joining the 80% club! Go for 90%!!! (80% of adults have had at least one shot).

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 7th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 21st.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 28th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 352,550,944, as of a week ago 347,377,149. Average doses last week: 0.74 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.2%	71.1%	70.1%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	166.9	166.7	165.1	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	110,081	107,414	87,747	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	55,779	53,940	41,029	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	434	423	344	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico and Rhode Island are at 80%+, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.5%, Nebraska at 68.6%, Wisconsin at 68.3%, Kansas at 67.7%, South Dakota at 67.4%, Nevada at 67.2%, and Iowa at 66.7%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2021 02:20:00 PM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For Portland, OR:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 3,439, up 1.4% from 3,391 in July 2020.

Active Residential Listings in July 2021 were 3,180, down 23.1% from 4,133 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 0.9 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.2 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 16.8% from last month, and up 65.5% from the record low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2021 12:17:00 PM

Five months ago, from Jann Swanson at MortgageNewsDaily: Fannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes. 

I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and will track those markets to see if there is an impact from the lending changes.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through July 2021, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12 month average).

Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

Click on graph for larger image.

Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.

Note that inventory was high while prices were declining - and significantly lower inventory in 2012 suggested the bust was over.  (Tracking inventory helped me call the bottom for housing way back in February 2012, see:The Housing Bottom is Here)

Currently inventory is still very low, but solidly above the record low set four months ago, and prices are up sharply YoY.   This will be interesting to watch.