by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2021 08:11:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the GAMLS for Atlanta:

Total Residential Units Sold in June 2021 were 10,035, up 7.8% from 9,310 in June 2020.

Active Residential Listings in June 2021 were 7,787, down 55.8% from 17,596 in June 2020. Inventory was up 3.4% from last month.

Months of Supply was 0.88 Months in June 2021, compared to 2.31 Months in June 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Georgia MLS shows inventory in Atlanta over the last several years - and the sharp decline in inventory at the start of the pandemic.

Inventory in Atlanta in June was 11.8% above the record low in April 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2021 05:12:00 PM

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 333,565,404, as of a week ago 329,970,551. Average doses last week: 0.51 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose	67.5%	67.4%	67.0%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	159.0	158.3	157.0	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	17,736	16,209	13,624	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	13,270	12,703	12,125	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	183	166	184	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Wisconsin at 65.9%, Nebraska at 65.6%, Florida at 65.5%, Utah at 65.0%, South Dakota at 64.7%, and Iowa at 64.3%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The 7-day average cases is the highest since the end of May.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2021 07:50:00 AM

The key reports this week are June CPI and retail sales.

For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

----- Monday, July 12th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, July 13th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI.

----- Wednesday, July 14th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.

12:00 PM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, July 15th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 350 thousand from 373 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 18.7, up from 17.4.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 28.0, down from 30.7.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.6%.

9:30 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

----- Friday, July 16th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.4% decrease in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 1.5% in May.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for July).

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2020

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2021 04:17:00 PM

Note: Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic. I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For Portland, OR:

Closed sales in June 2021 were 3,477, up 28.3% from 2,709 in June 2020.

Active Residential Listings in June 2021 were 2,722, down 33.8% from 4,109 in June 2020.

Inventory in June was up 16.4% from last month.

Months of Supply was 0.8 Months in June 2021, compared to 1.5 Months in June 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2021 02:55:00 PM

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 332,966,409, as of a week ago 328,809,470. Average doses last week: 0.59 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose	67.4%	67.3%	66.8%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	158.6	158.3	156.3	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	16,100	14,888	13,242	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	12,703	12,419	12,015	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	165	153	195	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Wisconsin at 65.9%, Nebraska at 65.6%, Florida at 65.4%, Utah at 64.9%, South Dakota at 64.6%, and Iowa at 64.2%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The 7-day average cases is the highest since the end of May.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2021 01:30:00 PM

From BofA:

We continue to track 2Q GDP growth of 9.5% qoq saar. [July 9 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +8.5% (qoq ar). [July 9 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2021:Q2 and 3.8% for 2021:Q3. [July 9 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.9 percent on July 9, up from 7.8 percent on July 2. [July 9 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2021 11:46:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

U.S. rail volumes in June 2021 and Q2 2021 were consistent with an economy that’s growing but has more growing to do. Total U.S. carloads in June 2021 and Q2 2021 were up 19.1% and 23.8%, respectively, over the same periods in 2020 as easy comps led to big year-over-year percentage gains. That said, total carloads in Q2 2021 were the most for any quarter since Q4 2019.
...
On the intermodal side, U.S. originations in Q2 2021 were the most ever for a quarter, and intermodal volume in the first six months of 2021 were the most ever for the first six months of a year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021:

Total originated carloads were 1.18 million in June 2021, up 19.1% (188,164 carloads) over June 2020 and down 5.5% from June 2019.
...
Carloads excluding coal were up 14.1% in June 2021 over June 2020 and down 4.3% from June 2019.

The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

U.S. intermodal originations, which are not included in carloads, rose 10.9% in June 2021 over June 2020, their 11th straight year-over-year gain. In June, intermodal averaged 277,349 containers and trailers per week, the second most for June on record (behind June 2018).

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2021 10:01:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.

The occupancy rate is down 0.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (easy comparison due to the timing of July 4th). Leisure (weekend) occupancy has recovered, but weekday (more business) is still down.

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Dips as June Yields to July

U.S. hotel occupancy dipped while average daily rate (ADR) was up from previous weeks and the comparable period in 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through July 3.

June 27 through July 3, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 65.4% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$135.35 (+5.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$88.51 (+5.7%)

While occupancy was down because of the holiday week, overall comparisons were more favorable because of low performance during the corresponding week from 2019. That week in 2019 was lower due to the 4th of July falling on a Thursday.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months should have decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2021 08:06:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of July 6th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Significant Improvement in Active Forbearances

In our last post, we mentioned that last week’s minor reduction in forbearance plans had “set us up nicely for what could be a larger improvement next week as some 218,000 plans were still scheduled for review by Wednesday, June 30.”

Well, that larger improvement arrived this week.

Since last Tuesday, the overall number of active plans has dropped by 189,000, pushing the population of homeowners in forbearance down below 2 million for the first time early in April of last year.

The decline, as mentioned above, was driven by the large volume of early entrants reaching their 15-month quarterly review, and significant declines were seen across all investor classes.

Click on graph for larger image.

Loans held in bank portfolios and private label securities led the way with a 78,000 reduction in plans, while FHA/VA and GSE forbearance volumes dropped by 67,000 and 44,000 respectively.

All in all, that puts us down 254,000 (-12%) from the same time last month.

Nearly two thirds of the more than 325,000 plans reviewed for extension or removal over the prior week resulted in exits. That’s the highest weekly exit rate in more than six months and the highest weekly removal volume since the first wave of plans went through their 12-month reviews a few months ago.

Forbearance plan starts also continue to fall, with both new and repeat starts down this week for a total of fewer than 26,000, a new pandemic-era low.

As of July 6, 1.86 million (3.5% of) homeowners remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans including 2.2% of GSE, 6.8% of FHA/VA and 4.6% of Portfolio/PLS loans. Another 400,000 plans are scheduled to be reviewed for extension/removal over the next 30 days.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2021 05:52:00 PM

Note: Remember, sales were weak in April and May last year. I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is very low.

From the NTREIS for North Texas (including Dallas/Ft. Worth):

Single Family Homes sold in June 2021 were 11,554, down 2.9% from 11,896 in June 2020. 

Condos and Townhomes sold in June 2021 were 905, up 46.7% from 617 in June 2020.

Combined, sales were down slightly year-over-year.

Single Family Active Listings in June 2021 were 8,603, down 50.0% from 17,222 in June 2020. 

For Condos and Townhomes, Active Listings in June 2021 were 1,144, down 47.6% from 2,184 in June 2020.

Combined, active listings declined 49.8% year-over-year.

Although down sharply year-over-year, active inventory was up 19.9% compared to last month.