by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 13.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 13.7%), and down 5.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.6%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, however inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 19th, inventory was at 758 thousand (7-day average), compared to 775 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2025 06:56:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 21, 2025

• Ten Economic Questions for 2026

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 21 and DOW futures are up 100 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $56.79 per barrel and Brent at $60.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $70, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are down about 19% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.80 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.01 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.21 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2025 08:21:00 AM

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

Below are my ten questions for 2026 (I've been doing this online every year for 21 years!).  These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions.

The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2026, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking.

  

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2% Q4-over-Q4 in 2025.  The FOMC is expecting growth of 2.1% to 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 in 2026. How much will the economy grow in 2026?  Will there be a recession in 2026?

2) Employment: Through November 2025, the economy added 610 thousand jobs in 2025.   How many jobs will be added in 2026?  Or will the economy lose jobs? 

3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November, up from 4.2% in November 2024.   Currently the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate will decrease to the 4.3% to 4.4% range in Q4 2026.  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?

4) Participation Rate: In November 2025, the overall participation rate was at 62.5%, unchanged year-over-year from 62.5% in November 2024, and below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3% in February 2020.   Long term, the BLS is projecting the overall participation rate will decline to 61.1% by 2034 due to demographics.  What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

5) Inflation: Core PCE was up 2.8% YoY through September. This was down from a peak of 5.6% in early 2022.  The FOMC is forecasting the YoY change in core PCE will be in the 2.4% to 2.6% range in Q4 2025. Will the core inflation rate decrease further in 2026, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026? 

6) Monetary Policy:  The FOMC cut the federal funds rate three times in 2025 from "4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent" at the beginning of 2025, to "3-1/2 to 3-3/4" at the end of the year. The mid-range on the "dot plot" suggests many FOMC participants expect around one to two 25 bp rate cuts in 2026.  What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

7) Wage Growth: Wage growth was decent in 2025, up 3.5% year-over-year as of November.  How much will wages increase in 2026?

8) Residential Investment: How much will Residential investment (RI)  change in 2026?  How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

9) House Prices: It appears house prices - as measured by the national repeat sales index (Case-Shiller, FHFA, and Freddie Mac) - will be mostly flat in 2025.  What will happen with house prices in 2026?

10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory decreased sharply during the pandemic to record lows in early 2022.  Since then, inventory has increased but is still below pre-pandemic levels.  Will inventory increase further in 2026?

by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

• Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2025 07:37:00 AM

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. For example, we are still missing housing starts and new home sales for September, October and November.

The key economic report this week is Q3 GDP.

----- Monday, December 22nd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q3, down from 3.8% in Q2.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 75.9%.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.

----- Wednesday, December 24th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225,000 initial claims, up from 224,000 last week.

The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

----- Thursday, December 25th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Christmas Holiday.

----- Friday, December 26th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 03:28:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

Excerpt:

While today’s existing homes sales report from the National Association of Realtors didn’t contain many surprises, an exception was in the reported median existing home sales prices. The NAR report showed that the median existing home sales price (total and single-family) in November was up just 1.2% from a year earlier, well below both consensus and what local realtor/MLS data would have suggested. The source of this surprise was in the Northeast, where the NAR’s median existing home sales price estimate was up just 1.1% from last November, and the median existing single-family home sales price estimate was up only 0.9% YOY. Such an anemic gain was completely inconsistent with state realtor data from the Northeast, as the table below shows.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 11:03:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were down 1.0% year-over-year compared to November 2024. The last month of 2025 will have a difficult year-over-year comparison.
...
Year-to-date, sales are down 0.5% compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995! Sales this year will be close to last year.

Will this be the lowest level of sales in 30 years? Maybe. But there was one more working day in December this year compared to last year, so sales in 2025 might beat 2024.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.5% Increase in November

Month-over-month

• 0.5% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million in November

• 5.9% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.43 million units equal to 4.2 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.0% decrease in existing-home sales

• 1.2% increase in median existing-home sales price to $409,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in November (4.13 million SAAR) were up 0.5% from the previous month and were down 1.0% compared to the November 2024 sales rate.  

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.43 million in November from 1.52 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 7.5% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.2 months in November from 4.4 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 07:59:00 AM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 December

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 December. ...

7-13 December 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 58.6% (-1.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.46 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$91.76 (-1.1%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking well behind last year but is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:01:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).