by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 08:08:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for October.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 04:29:00 PM

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 10.6 Percent

Personal and business bankruptcy filings increased 10.6 percent in the twelve-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, compared with the previous year.

According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 557,376 in the year ending September 2025, compared with 504,112 cases in the previous year.

Business filings rose 5.6 percent, from 22,762 to 24,039 in the year ending Sept. 30, 2025. Non-business bankruptcy filings increased 10.8 percent to 533,337, compared with 481,350 in the previous year.

Still fairly low.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 12:02:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

Excerpt:

“All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

Maybe we could say that all housing booms look alike, but every down cycle is “unhappy in its own way.”

In March 2022, I wrote Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust. Instead, I suggested a more similar period was the late ‘70s to early ‘80s.

It is natural to compare the current housing boom to the mid-00s housing bubble. The bubble and subsequent bust are part of our collective memories. And graphs of nominal house prices and price-to-rent ratios look eerily similar to the housing bubble.

However, there are significant differences. First, lending has been reasonably solid during the current boom, whereas in the mid-00s, underwriting standards were almost non-existent (“fog a mirror, get a loan”). And demographics are much more favorable today than in the mid-00s.

A much more similar period to today is the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. House prices were increasing sharply. Demographics were very favorable for homebuying as the baby boomers moved into the first-time homebuying age group (similar to the millennials now). And inflation picked up from an already elevated level due to the second oil embargo in 1979, followed by the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, driving up costs.

Sure enough, there hasn’t been a national crash in house prices. However, although there are similarities to the late ‘70s / early ‘80s period, there also significant differences. The most obvious difference is the sharp slowdown in population growth and immigration. The population and workforce were expanding sharply in the early ‘80s.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 15.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.3%), and down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.3%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 21st, inventory was at 830 thousand (7-day average), compared to 840 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2025 06:14:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 23, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 41 and DOW futures are up 215 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.06 per barrel and Brent at $62.56 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $72, and Brent was at $76 - so WTI oil prices are down about 19% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.07 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.03 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2025 09:28:00 AM

This is something I check occasionally.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.0% (+5.4 billion vehicle miles) for September 2025 as compared with September 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 278.3 billion vehicle miles.

The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for September 2025 is 277.1 billion miles, a +1.9% ( 5.0 billion vehicle miles) change over September 2024. It also represents a 0.2% change (0.6 billion vehicle miles) compared with August 2025.

Cumulative Travel for 2025 changed by +1.0% (+25.1 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 2,492.0 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.

Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020 and really collapsed in April 2020.  

Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2025 02:14:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

• California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2025 08:11:00 AM

Happy Thanksgiving!

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.  Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week.

The key reports this week include the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, September New Home Sales and Retail Sales.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and September Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE).


----- Monday, November 24th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Tuesday, November 25th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 1.5% YoY in August and is expected to increase about the same in September.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 26th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2025.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. 

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, November 27th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 28th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 11:56:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, a slight decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent. [November 21st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 08:18:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Nov. 15, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 12.6% year-over-year, as the streak of annual gains stretched past two years in length. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 29th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing due to both new listings hitting the market, but mostly listings taking longer to sell in this weak 2025 sales year.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.7% year over year

New listings edged up on an annual basis, the second straight week of gains and a return to more typical levels after last week’s surge. Mortgage rates held in the low 6.2s range last week the low-6% range, which may be enticing some homeowners to make a move.

• The median listing price fell 0.4% year-over-year

he median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 1.0% year-over-year, dropping for the 11th consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.