by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2025 08:11:00 AM

Happy Thanksgiving!

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.  Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week.

The key reports this week include the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, September New Home Sales and Retail Sales.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and September Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE).


----- Monday, November 24th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Tuesday, November 25th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 1.5% YoY in August and is expected to increase about the same in September.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 26th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2025.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. 

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, November 27th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 28th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 11:56:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, a slight decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent. [November 21st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 08:18:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Nov. 15, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 12.6% year-over-year, as the streak of annual gains stretched past two years in length. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 29th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing due to both new listings hitting the market, but mostly listings taking longer to sell in this weak 2025 sales year.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.7% year over year

New listings edged up on an annual basis, the second straight week of gains and a return to more typical levels after last week’s surge. Mortgage rates held in the low 6.2s range last week the low-6% range, which may be enticing some homeowners to make a move.

• The median listing price fell 0.4% year-over-year

he median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 1.0% year-over-year, dropping for the 11th consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:17:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 02:42:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 15 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 15 November. ...

9-15 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 60.9% (-4.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.41 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$93.97 (-4.6%)

The Veteran’s Day calendar shift drove a double-digit decline in group demand, resulting in lower performance levels across the U.S.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 11:02:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 1.7% year-over-year compared to October 2024. The last 2 months of 2025 will have more difficult year-over-year comparisons.
...
Year-to-date, sales are essentially unchanged compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995! Sales this year will be close to last year.

Will this be the lowest level of sales in 30 years?

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October

Month-over-month

• 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October

• 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.7% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (4.10 million SAAR) were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 1.7% compared to the October 2024 sales rate.  

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.52 million in October from 1.53 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 10.9% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.4 months in October from 4.5 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:55:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's average.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,250.

The graph includes all the missing weeks while the government was shutdown.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 119 thousand in September.  Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 22 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 35 thousand).

Payrolls for July and August were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy lost jobs in both June and August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 1.31 million jobs.  

Year-over-year employment growth is slowing sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% in September, from 62.3% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was increased to 59.7% from 59.6% in August (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.

This was above consensus expectations, however, July and August payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined.  

Overall another weak report.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 09:06:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.