by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 11:56:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, a slight decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent. [November 21st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2025 08:18:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Nov. 15, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 12.6% year-over-year, as the streak of annual gains stretched past two years in length. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 29th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing due to both new listings hitting the market, but mostly listings taking longer to sell in this weak 2025 sales year.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.7% year over year

New listings edged up on an annual basis, the second straight week of gains and a return to more typical levels after last week’s surge. Mortgage rates held in the low 6.2s range last week the low-6% range, which may be enticing some homeowners to make a move.

• The median listing price fell 0.4% year-over-year

he median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 1.0% year-over-year, dropping for the 11th consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:17:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 02:42:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 15 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 15 November. ...

9-15 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 60.9% (-4.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.41 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$93.97 (-4.6%)

The Veteran’s Day calendar shift drove a double-digit decline in group demand, resulting in lower performance levels across the U.S.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 11:02:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 1.7% year-over-year compared to October 2024. The last 2 months of 2025 will have more difficult year-over-year comparisons.
...
Year-to-date, sales are essentially unchanged compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995! Sales this year will be close to last year.

Will this be the lowest level of sales in 30 years?

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October

Month-over-month

• 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October

• 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.7% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (4.10 million SAAR) were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 1.7% compared to the October 2024 sales rate.  

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.52 million in October from 1.53 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 10.9% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.4 months in October from 4.5 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:55:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's average.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,250.

The graph includes all the missing weeks while the government was shutdown.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 119 thousand in September.  Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 22 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 35 thousand).

Payrolls for July and August were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy lost jobs in both June and August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 1.31 million jobs.  

Year-over-year employment growth is slowing sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% in September, from 62.3% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was increased to 59.7% from 59.6% in August (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.

This was above consensus expectations, however, July and August payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined.  

Overall another weak report.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 09:06:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 05:05:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI October 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms

The ABI score of 47.6 for October indicates that fewer firms reported declining billings this month than in September, when the score was 43.3. In addition, inquiries into new projects increased significantly this month, with the largest share of firms in a year and a half reporting an increase. On the other hand, the value of newly signed design contracts decreased yet again, as projects remain smaller and clients remain hesitant to commit.

Billings softened at firms in all regions of the country in October, except for those in the Midwest, where they were essentially flat for the second consecutive month. Business conditions remained softest at firms located in the West, while the pace of the decline in billings held steady at firms located in the Northeast. Firms located in the South saw conditions weaken further this month, after approaching growth over the summer. The billings decline also accelerated this month at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year after approaching growth in the third quarter. And conditions remain soft overall at firms with institutional and multifamily residential specializations.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (45.1); Midwest (49.6); South (45.3); West (42.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.6); institutional (46.3); multifamily residential (46.8)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.6 in October, up from 43.3 in September.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 35 of the last 37 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.