by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, up from 37 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist

Market uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown along with economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and rising construction costs kept builder confidence firmly in negative territory in November.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 38 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.”

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 6% in November, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 65% in November, tying the share in September and October.
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 41, the index measuring future sales fell three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point gain to 26.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 48, the Midwest fell one point to 41, the South increased three points to 34 and the West gained two points to 30.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for nineteen consecutive months.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 07:39:00 PM

NOTE from Fed:

The industrial production indexes that are published in the G.17 Statistical Release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown. Consequently, the G.17 monthly release will not be published as scheduled on November 18, 2025.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 8:30 AM ET,Housing Starts for October.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.

• At 10:00 AM, The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, down from 37. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 11:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

In October, sales in these markets were down 0.3% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 8.0% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 10:15:00 AM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending increased and public spending was unchanged:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,652.1 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,647.5 billion. ...

n August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $517.3 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised July estimate of $517.5 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 6.5% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is 6.8% below the peak in December 2023.

Public construction spending (orange) is close to the peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 2.0%. Private non-residential spending is down 4.0% year-over-year. Public spending is up 2.7% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 16.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.7%), and down 5.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.6%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 14th, inventory was at 840 thousand (7-day average), compared to 842 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2025 06:59:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 16, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 5.7, down from 10.7.

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.09 per barrel and Brent at $64.39 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $67, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are down about 11% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.06 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.03 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.03 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2025 11:28:00 AM

Here is another update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On November 14, 2025, LBR was at $560.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 7.7% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

TClick on graph for larger image.

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

• November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2025 08:11:00 AM

SPECIAL NOTE: The statistical agencies will likely provide updated schedules this week. I'll update this schedule when that happens. The September employment report will be released this week on Thursday.

The key economic reports this week are Existing Home sales and the (likely) September employment report.

For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the November NY, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 17th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 5.7, down from 10.7.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.

----- Tuesday, November 18th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

This will be 2nd consecutive months without housing start data.






9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.

10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, down from 37. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, November 19th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 28-29

----- Thursday, November 20th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

There were 22,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

----- Friday, November 21st -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2025 11:55:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2025

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.99 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate was up 6 basis points from the second quarter of 2025 and up 7 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter rose by 3 basis points to 0.20 percent.

“Mortgage delinquencies increased in third quarter of 2025, led by worsening FHA loan performance,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Since this time last year, the FHA seriously delinquent rate – which includes 90+ day delinquencies and loans in foreclosure – increased by almost 50 basis points. In contrast, the conventional and VA seriously delinquent rates remained relatively flat.”

Added Walsh, “The stressors on FHA homeowners include a softer labor market, other personal debt obligations, and increases in taxes, homeowners’ insurance and other fees that exacerbate already stretched affordability. Additionally, home price declines in some parts of the country may lessen the ability to sell or refinance.”

Walsh also noted that while the third quarter results were not impacted by the ending of COVID-era FHA loss mitigation options and the recent government shutdown, those events may affect future quarters.

There is much more in the article.