by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2025 02:11:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Nov. 1

• Active inventory climbed 14.0% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 14.0% year-over-year, marking the two full years (104 weeks) of annual gains in inventory. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 27th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer, and homeowners aren’t eager to sell.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell 3.2% year over year

New listings were down 3.2% last week compared with the same period a year ago, The decline marks a reversal after three weeks of consecutive growth, suggesting that seller momentum is starting to cool heading into November.

• The median listing price was flat year-over-year

The median list price dipped slightly compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 0.7% year-over-year, dropping for the ninth consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2025 09:27:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in October

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 202.9, reflecting a 2.0% decline in October’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to September. The index is mostly unchanged compared to October 2024. The long-term average monthly move for October is an increase of 0.3%, as the seasonal adjustment factor is typically the weakest of the year.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices were declined in October (seasonally adjusted) and were unchanged YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2025 08:11:00 AM

From Revelio Labs: Employment — October 2025

Non-farm employment measures the total employment in the US (public and private) leveraging individual level data collected from online professional profiles. The monthly change in this total employment is a proxy for number of jobs added in the economy during the month. In October, the US economy lost 9 thousand jobs, predominantly driven by employment losses in the government sector.

Click on graph for larger image.

We need the BLS data!

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 07:19:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for October.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 02:32:00 PM

From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — November 2025

• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.2% in September 2025.

• Connecticut, New Jersey, Alaska, West Virginia, and Wyoming saw the highest year-over-year price growth this month. Washington D.C. and Florida saw home prices dip the most.
...
The U.S. housing market is continuing to cool off as summer fades into fall. Home prices across the country are starting to sag as inventory reaches its highest level since 2019. While the Northeast is still showing strong market signals, other regional differences are becoming apparent.
...
“Much like the K-shaped trend seen in overall consumer spending—driven largely by higher income groups—lower-income potential homebuyers are facing challenges due to an uncertain job market, sluggish wage growth, and worsening financial conditions. This is leading to weaker demand for homes and downward pressure on prices,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

Amid falling prices, there has been a rise in serious mortgage delinquencies in some states like Florida, a state where a large proportion of markets are experiencing ebbing prices.
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This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.

The list is dominated by Florida.  According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.

House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 11:45:00 AM

SPECIAL NOTE on Government Shutdown and Air Travel from CoStar:

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the government would cut 10% of air traffic at 40 of the country’s busiest airports if the shutdown continues, the New York Times reports. The airports will be named later today.
...
The announcement comes just weeks before Americans will celebrate Thanksgiving. AAA’s latest forecast predicts 2.4 million planned to travel by air for the holiday. Last year, TSA screened more than 3 million passengers, a new record, during last year’s Thanksgiving week.

If the cuts happen, this will likely negatively impact hotel occupancy rates.

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 1 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 1 November. ...

26 October through 1 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 59.3% (-2.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.09 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$92.54 (-2.3%)
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The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2025 08:21:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

In October, sales in these early reporting markets were down 2.8% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.4% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2025 08:45:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET The initial weekly unemployment claims report will NOT be released.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2025 11:36:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

A brief excerpt:

The NY Fed released the Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are a few charts from the report.

The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2025 11:00:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $197 billion (1%) in Q3 2025, to $18.59 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

“Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.” Mortgage balances grew by $137 billion in the third quarter and totaled $13.07 trillion at the end of September 2025. Credit card balances rose by $24 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.23 trillion. Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66 trillion. Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $11 billion to $422 billion. Student loan balances rose by $15 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion. In total, non-housing balances rose by $49 billion, a 1.0% increase from Q2 2025.

The pace of mortgage originations increased with $512 billion newly originated in Q3 2025. There was $184 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the third quarter, a small dip from the $188 billion observed in Q2 2025. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $94 billion, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter. Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $8 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in Q3 2025, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency were mixed with credit card debt and student loans increasing, while all other debt types saw decreases. Transitions into serious delinquency mostly increased across debt types, although mortgages saw a slight decrease.
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Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $197 billion in the third quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025Q2. Balances now stand at $18.59 trillion and have increased by $4.44 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate increased in Q3.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the third quarter of 2025. The share of outstanding debt balances in some stage of delinquency was largely flat in 2025Q3; 4.5% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. 

There is much more in the report.