by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 07:51:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will not be released.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2025 (advance estimate) will not be released.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting, and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 10:50:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

Excerpt:

Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.57%, up from 0.56% August. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in September 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.54%, up from 0.53% in August. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in September 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic./blockquote>

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows No Change in September

Pending home sales in September showed no change from the prior month and fell 0.9% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales under contract. ...

Month-Over-Month
No change in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West

Year Over Year
0.9% decrease in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.3 percent, its lowest level since September 2024. This recent decline in rates spurred the second consecutive week of increased refinance activity, driven mainly by conventional refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The ARM share of applications, which had been trending higher, dipped below 10 percent last week, as lower rates prompted more borrowers to choose fixed rate loans. Additionally, the average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be sensitive to rate movements. Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week across most loan types. However, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.30 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2025 07:23:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for September. 

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2025 02:03:00 PM

Another update ... a few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through August 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.  

The peak MoM increase in NSA prices this year was the smallest since 2008!

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2025 10:04:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August (”August” is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). June closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.21% (a +2.5% annual rate). This followed five consecutive MoM decreases in the seasonally adjusted index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 11 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 8.2% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 5.7% from the peak, Tampa down 4.2% and Miami down 3.6%.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in August 2025

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.5% annual gain for August, down from a 1.6% rise in the previous month.

• Housing wealth eroded in real terms for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1.5% national gain falling well short of 3% inflation.

• Nineteen of 20 metros declined month-to-month in August, with only Chicago posting a gain, signaling broad weakness beyond typical seasonal patterns.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.5% annual gain for August, down from a 1.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.1%, down from a 2.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, down from a 1.8% increase in the previous month.

New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.1% increase in August, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 5.9% and 4.7%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 3.3%. ...

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices continued to report negative month-over-month change in August, posting -0.3% for U.S. national index and -0.6% for both 10-City and 20-City Composite indices.

After seasonal adjustment, all three indices posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%.
...
"August's data shows U.S. home prices continuing to slow, with the National Index up just 1.5% year- over-year," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "This marks the weakest annual gain in over two years and falls well below the 3% inflation rate. For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.

"The National Index rose 1.5% over the past year, with most of that gain coming in the recent six months (up 1.5%) while the prior six months were essentially flat. The 20-City Composite gained 1.6% annually and the 10-City rose 2.1%, both continuing their deceleration from earlier in the year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.2% in August (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.2% (SA) in August.

The National index was up 0.2% (SA) in August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.6% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.5% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were below expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2025 07:21:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Perfectly Flat to Start The Week

Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in a month last Tuesday and barely budged through the rest of the week. Now, at the start of the new week, the average lender is perfectly unchanged from last Friday. This means there are only a small handful of days with meaningfully lower rates going all the way back to late 2022.

As the government shutdown continues, the bond market (which dictates rates) continues missing out on the bulk of relevant economic reports that normally help guide momentum throughout the month. [30 year fixed 6.19%]
emphasis added

Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.  The consensus is for the National index to be up 1.9% year-over-year.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.