by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2025 10:04:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August (”August” is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). June closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.21% (a +2.5% annual rate). This followed five consecutive MoM decreases in the seasonally adjusted index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 11 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 8.2% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 5.7% from the peak, Tampa down 4.2% and Miami down 3.6%.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in August 2025

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.5% annual gain for August, down from a 1.6% rise in the previous month.

• Housing wealth eroded in real terms for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1.5% national gain falling well short of 3% inflation.

• Nineteen of 20 metros declined month-to-month in August, with only Chicago posting a gain, signaling broad weakness beyond typical seasonal patterns.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.5% annual gain for August, down from a 1.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.1%, down from a 2.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, down from a 1.8% increase in the previous month.

New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.1% increase in August, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 5.9% and 4.7%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 3.3%. ...

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices continued to report negative month-over-month change in August, posting -0.3% for U.S. national index and -0.6% for both 10-City and 20-City Composite indices.

After seasonal adjustment, all three indices posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%.
...
"August's data shows U.S. home prices continuing to slow, with the National Index up just 1.5% year- over-year," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "This marks the weakest annual gain in over two years and falls well below the 3% inflation rate. For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.

"The National Index rose 1.5% over the past year, with most of that gain coming in the recent six months (up 1.5%) while the prior six months were essentially flat. The 20-City Composite gained 1.6% annually and the 10-City rose 2.1%, both continuing their deceleration from earlier in the year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.2% in August (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.2% (SA) in August.

The National index was up 0.2% (SA) in August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.6% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.5% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were below expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2025 07:21:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Perfectly Flat to Start The Week

Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in a month last Tuesday and barely budged through the rest of the week. Now, at the start of the new week, the average lender is perfectly unchanged from last Friday. This means there are only a small handful of days with meaningfully lower rates going all the way back to late 2022.

As the government shutdown continues, the bond market (which dictates rates) continues missing out on the bulk of relevant economic reports that normally help guide momentum throughout the month. [30 year fixed 6.19%]
emphasis added

Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.  The consensus is for the National index to be up 1.9% year-over-year.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2025 02:41:00 PM

From J.D. Power: October New-Vehicle Sales Decline as EV Pull-Ahead Reverses; EV Share Falls to 5.3% Following Incentive Expiration Brief excerpt:

Total new-vehicle sales for October 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,249,800, a 6.9% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. October 2025 has 27 selling days, the same as October 2024.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.1 million units, down 1.1 million units from October 2024.
...
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power:

“October’s results reflect a notable, but expected decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, due almost entirely to sales of electric vehicles.

“The expiration of federal EV credits on Sept. 30 caused EV shoppers to pull ahead their purchases, driving a significant increase in EV sales and inflating the overall industry sales pace. In September, EVs accounted for 12.9% of new-vehicle retail sales, the highest ever, and well above the 8.5% recorded a year earlier. Now that the federal EV credit has expired, the industry is dealing with the consequences of those accelerated purchases. In October, EVs represent just 5.2% of new-vehicle retail sales. On a volume basis, EVs account for 1.0 million of the 1.2 million-unit decline in the industry sales pace compared with a month ago.
emphasis added

From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay site): Forecast Decline in October US Light Vehicle Sales Likely to Continue in November, December

US light vehicle sales are forecast to decline 3.6% year-over-year in October, only the second downturn this year. However, downturns are forecast to continue due to lean inventory, a rising mix of higher priced vehicles, and the end of the EV credit.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power's forecast for October (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 15.1 million SAAR would be down 7.9% from last month, and down 6.3% from a year ago.

All of Q4 will likely be difficult for vehicle sales.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2025 11:40:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in September.

There were several key stories for September:

• Sales NSA are down 0.2% YoY through September, and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for almost 3 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for the month of September since 2015).

• The median price is up 2.1% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year or in 2026.

Sales at 4.06 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were at the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.32 million SAAR for the month of September in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In September, sales in these markets were up 7.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were up 8.2% year-over-year in September (close).

Important: There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was lower than the NSA data suggested (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local data coming in November for activity in October!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 17.9% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.2%), and down 6.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 8.1%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 24th, inventory was at 868 thousand (7-day average), compared to 859 thousand the prior week.   This is a new high for 2025!

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2025 06:11:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 26, 2025

• FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected

Monday:
• (will not be released due to government shutdown) At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

• (will not be released) At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 320 (fair value).

Oil prices were mixed over the last week with WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $65.94 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $68, and Brent was at $72 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.01 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.09 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.08 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2025 08:21:00 AM

Most analysts expect the FOMC to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week to a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also cut rates an additional 25bps at the December meeting.

From BofA:

The Fed has indicated that it will cut rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.0% at its October meeting. We also expect the FOMC to announce an end to balance sheet runoff. We think the Fed will acknowledge the recent strength of economic activity. But the broader shift in focus toward the labor mandate probably won’t change. Powell is also unlikely to offer much guidance beyond this meeting given the lack of official sector data and the current labor-consumption conundrum.
...
Our base case is that there will again be only one dissent, a dovish one from Governor Miran, who indicated that he would favor a 50bp cut in a recent interview. But we see meaningful risks of at least one hawkish dissent as well.
emphasis added

Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. Here are the September projections.  

The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 2.8%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 1.9% annualized - above the top end of the September projections.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	1.4 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0
Jun 2025	1.2 to 1.5	1.5 to 1.8	1.7 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in August.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year.  There was no data for September due to the government shutdown.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.4 to 4.5	4.2 to 4.4
Jun 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.3 to 4.6	4.2 to 4.6

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of August 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.y% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.6% YoY in July. 

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.8 to 3.2	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation increased 2.9% YoY in August, unchanged from 2.9% YoY in July.  There will likely be further increases in core PCE inflation, although CPI measured inflation was below expectations in September.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	3.0 to 3.2	2.5-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.9 to 3.4	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September

• NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3

• Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

• California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2025 08:11:00 AM

Boo!

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates 25bp.

The key economic reports that will be released this week include the Case-Shiller house price index for August, and October ISM manufacturing and services indexes.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, October 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

​10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

----- Tuesday, October 28th -----
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.  The consensus is for the National index to be up 1.9% year-over-year.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.

----- Wednesday, October 29th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for September. 

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, October 30th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2025 (advance estimate).

----- Friday, October 31st -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for September.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 42.0, up from 40.6 in September.