by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2025 11:38:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: NAR “Fixes” Median Sales Price for July

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

While many folks didn’t notice it, the National Association of Realtor’s August Existing Homes Sales Report including a significant upward revision in median sales prices for July. Below is a table showing the preliminary and revised median existing home sales prices for all sales and for single-family sales.

As the table shows, in the latest report the NAR revised the YOY % change in the median existing home sales price by about 0.8 percentage points. Virtually all of this upward revision was the result of a massive upward revision in the YOY % change in the median existing home sales price in the Northeast region -- to 6.1% from 0.8% for all sales, and to 6.7% from 0.8% for single family sales!

As I noted in my August 26th report, the 0.8% reported increase in Northeast median sales price in the July NAR report was completely inconsistent with reported median sales price increases from state realtor organizations in the Northeast, which suggested significantly higher median sales price gains.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August

• New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August

• FHFA’s Q2 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

• Household Formation Drives Housing Demand

• California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include Case-Shiller house prices for July, the September ISM Manufacturing and Services indices, and September auto sales.

----- Monday, September 29th -----
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.1% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

----- Tuesday, September 30th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 2.3% year-over-year increase in the National index for July.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for July. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, up from 41.5 in August.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

----- Wednesday, October 1st -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 48,000 jobs added, down from 54,000 in August.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 49.2, up from 48.7 in August. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease.

----- Thursday, October 2nd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

All day: Light vehicle sales for September.

The consensus is for sales of 16.2 million SAAR, up from 16.1 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.



----- Friday, October 3rd -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

There were 22,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for September.

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2025 01:17:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.6% q/q saar from 2.1% & BEA revised 2Q GDP up from 3.3% to 3.8% in the third estimate. [September 26th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger consumer spending in August and a more favorable monthly path between Q2 and Q3 than we had previously assumed. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate now stands at +1.9%. [September 26th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points. [September 26th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2025 10:17:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s Q2 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

A brief excerpt:

Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q2 2025 (released yesterday).
...
This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

Note that a fairly large percentage of mortgage loans were under 4% prior to the pandemic!

The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 52.5%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 70.4%). These low existing mortgage rates made it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.

This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low. However, time is eroding this lock-in effect.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025

Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $132.9 billion in August. Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.
...
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 2.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The August PCE price index increased 2.7 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.6 percent YoY in July.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.9 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.9 percent in July.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and PCE were above expectations.

Inflation was at expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 4.0% annual rate in Q3 2025. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 3.0%).  This suggests decent PCE growth in Q3.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2025 08:00:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).

• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 55.4.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2025 04:56:00 PM

From J.D. Power: J.D. Power-GlobalData Forecast September 2025 Brief excerpt:

Total new-vehicle sales for September 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,232,200, a 0.1% increase year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. September 2025 has 24 selling days, one more than September 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 4.5% from 2024.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.2 million units, up 0.3 million units from September 2024.
...
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power:
“In aggregate, September sales results point to another month of strong demand for new vehicles. However, as has been the case for the past few months, assessing the health of the industry requires a closer look at the underlying market dynamics.

“The biggest driver of September’s strong sales pace is temporarily inflated demand for electric vehicles. The federal EV tax credit expires at the end of the month, which is causing many shoppers to accelerate their purchase. EV share of retail sales is expected to reach a record of 12.2% this month—up 2.6 percentage points from a year ago. On a volume basis, this equates to a 27.5% increase in EV sales—selling day adjusted—from a year ago. Conversely, demand for non-EVs is muted, with non-EV sales down 2.5% this month from a year ago. The second key driver is affordability. Although again, the EV dynamic means aggregate results need careful evaluation. In totality, average vehicle prices continue to rise, discounts remain low and monthly finance payments are at record highs—all of which affects the overall sales pace.”
emphasis added

From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay site): US Light Vehicle Sales in September Tracking to Another Gain as Auto Industry Casts a Wary Eye on 4Q

September US light-vehicle sales will continue the market strength seen all year, but all eyes are on the fourth quarter as tariff-related pull-ahead volume dissipates, EV credits disappear, and automakers price their ’26 models.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power's forecast for September (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 16.2 million SAAR would be up 0.8% from last month, and up 2.5% from a year ago.

Q4 will likely be more difficult for vehicle sales.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2025 02:40:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still down year-over-year.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 20 September

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 20 September. ...

14-20 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 68.1% (-1.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$168.98 (-0.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$115.12 (-1.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2025 10:54:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 1.8% year-over-year compared to August 2024. Next month will also have an easy year-over-year comparison.
...
On an NSA basis for the month of August, this was 7% above the low for housing bust for the month of August that happened in August 2010. Year-to-date, sales are down 1.2% NSA.

There is much more in the article.