by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2025 08:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand

A brief excerpt:

In 2021, we saw rapidly rising home prices and rents indicating strong demand for both owner occupied and rental units. This suggested a sharp increase in household formation.

Subsequent research indicated this was correct.

If we look at the Historical Households Tables (based on the Current Population Survey), we see that from 2010 to 2019, about 1.1 million additional households were formed each year. However, in 2020 due to the pandemic, the number of households declined by over 100 thousand.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 07:17:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New Week

After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday's Fed announcement. While the Fed cut rates as expected, and while the Fed's rate forecasts were well-received, Powell's guidance pushed back in the other direction. Economic data on Thursday morning made things worse making for a fairly sharp 2-day spike.

Things calmed down after that. Friday's rates were a hair lower and now today's rates are right in line with Friday's. In other words, the volatile reaction to last week's Fed announcement is over and the market is waiting for the next source of inspiration.

The most prevalent top tier 30yr fixed rate is now closest to 6.375% after briefly hitting 6.125% last week. [30 year fixed 6.35%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for September.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 01:01:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 3.98 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in August 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report August sales of 3.90 million SAAR.

California reports Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales and some measures of inventory whereas most of the local is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales rebound in August as lower rates lift demand, C.A.R. says

August home sales activity edged up 0.9 percent from the 261,820 homes sold in July and slipped 0.2 percent from a year ago, when 264,640 homes were sold on an annualized basis. August’s sales level remained slightly below last year’s revised level and marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines. ...

This is in line with national sales being mostly unchanged year-over-year.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 10:58:00 AM

First, shutdowns are expensive, and many government employees continue to work (like the military), but don't get paid. In the past, all employees who didn't work were paid in full.

Second, there will be an impact on GDP. Depending on the length of the shutdown, this will negatively impact GDP in Q4.

Third, we will be flying mostly blind without reports on employment, inflation, housing starts and more.  However, there will be some private data to fill the gap.  

Fourth, for housing, depending on the length of the shutdown, the impact would be on existing home closings in October. If the shutdown lasts for the entire month, I'd expect about a 10% decline in seasonally adjusted sales in October. If the shutdown only lasts a couple of weeks, there would probably be little impact. Some issues could be Tax transcripts, Flood Certs, and SS# Authorization.

Also, a shutdown increases uncertainty, and that might push up mortgage rates (investors hate uncertainty).

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 29.0% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 20.5%), and down 9.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.8%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of September 19th, inventory was at 863 thousand (7-day average), compared to 860 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2025 06:23:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of September 12, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 7 and DOW futures are down 56 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $62.68 per barrel and Brent at $66.68 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $76 - so WTI oil prices are down about 14% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.14 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.19 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2025 09:55:00 AM

This is something I check occasionally.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.7% (+4.9 billion vehicle miles) for July 2025 as compared with July 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 296.0 billion vehicle miles.

The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for July 2025 is 276.6 billion miles, a +1.6% ( 4.4 billion vehicle miles) change over July 2024. It also represents a 0.5% change (1.5 billion vehicle miles) compared with June 2025.

Cumulative Travel for 2025 changed by +0.9% (+17.1 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 1,919.0 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.

Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020 and really collapsed in April 2020.  

Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August

• Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are August New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q2 GDP, and Personal Income and Outlays for August.

For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, September 22nd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, September 23rd -----
10:00 AM: the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for September.

----- Wednesday, September 24th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 653 thousand SAAR, up from 652 thousand in July.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, September 25th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 234 thousand from 231 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of 3.3%.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.98 million SAAR, down from 4.01 million in July.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report August sales of 3.93 million SAAR.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September. 

----- Friday, September 26th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 55.4.

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2025 12:38:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 3.98 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in August 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report August sales of 3.90 million SAAR.

August sales will be mostly for contracts signed in June and July, and mortgage rates averaged 6.82% in June and 6.72% in July (somewhat lower than for closed sales in July).

In August, sales in these early reporting markets were down 2.2% YoY. Last month, in July, these same markets were down 0.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.