by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2025 11:01:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking moved up to 2.1% q/q saar from 1.7% & 2Q GDP is up two-tenths to 3.4%. [September 19th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +1.3%. [September 17th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.3 percent on September 17, down from 3.4 percent on September 16. After this morning’s housing starts release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -4.6 percent to -6.3 percent. [September 17th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2025 08:11:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For August, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 20.9% YoY, but still down 14.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Sept. 13

• Active inventory climbed 17.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 17.6% year over year, easing slightly compared to the previous week for the 13th consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 97th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 20th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 2.1% year over year

New listings rose 2.1% last week compared with the same period last year. This is an increase from the previous week, though the number of new listings remains below the spring and early summer norm. Homeowners are less eager to get into the market as inventory continues to build and buyers keep to the sidelines.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, we also see price per square foot fall year over year for the second consecutive week. Price per square foot had been growing steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and stalled out this metric, suggesting underlying home values are starting to soften.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 07:25:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2025

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 02:50:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 September

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 September. ...

7-13 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.4% (-1.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.71 (+0.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$106.43 (-1.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 10:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.90 million in August, down 2.7% from July’s preliminary pace and down 0.8% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this August’s lower business day count compared to last August’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. Last year, the NAR reported sales in August 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

There is also an update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 263,000 to 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 240,500 to 240,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 240,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 08:18:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 240 thousand from 237 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 2.5, up from 0.0.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 04:01:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were down 2% YoY in August, and exports were down 1% YoY.    

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 0.2% in August compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   

Outbound traffic decreased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

This is the 9th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 02:08:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  

Since the last projections were released, economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation all have been close to expectations.

The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.4% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 2%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 1.6% annualized - above the top of end of the June projections.  The FOMC revised up Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 GDP growth slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	1.4 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0
Jun 2025	1.2 to 1.5	1.5 to 1.8	1.7 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in August.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year.  This was unrevised.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.4 to 4.5	4.2 to 4.4
Jun 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.3 to 4.6	4.2 to 4.6

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.6% YoY in June. There will likely be some further increases in the 2nd half of 2025, and the FOMC narrowed the range.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.8 to 3.2	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation increased 2.9% YoY in July, up from 2.8% YoY in June.  There will likely be further increase in core PCE inflation and the FOMC narrowed the range.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	3.0 to 3.2	2.5-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.9 to 3.4	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting.
emphasis added