by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National) Summary

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000 (-0.6 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These counts are derived primarily from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies.

The preliminary benchmark revision reflects the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to their own sources of error. It serves as a preliminary measure of the total error in CES employment estimates from March 2024 to March 2025. Preliminary research, which is not comprehensive and is subject to updates in QCEW data, indicates that the primary contributors to the overestimation of employment growth are likely the result of two sources—response error and nonresponse error. First, businesses reported less employment to the QCEW than they reported to the CES survey (response error). Second, businesses who were selected for the CES survey but did not respond reported less employment to the QCEW than those businesses who did respond to the CES survey (nonresponse error). Estimates of other errors, such as the forecast error from the net birth-death model, are not available at this time. Information on how the net birth-death forecasts have reduced benchmark revisions historically are available on the CES Birth-Death Model Frequently Asked Questions page in question 10, www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm.

The preliminary benchmark revisions in table 1 are calculated only for March 2025 for the major industry sectors. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level.

Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on this preliminary benchmark revision. The final benchmark revision will be incorporated into official estimates with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release in February 2026.

The final revision will be published when the January 2026 employment report is released in February 2026. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2024).  Usually, the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

This preliminary estimate showed 880,000 fewer private sector jobs, and 31,000 more government jobs (as of March 2025) than originally estimated.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2025 08:21:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

August sales will be mostly for contracts signed in June and July, and mortgage rates averaged 6.82% in June and 6.72% in July (somewhat lower than for closed sales in July).

In August, sales in these early reporting markets were down 5.0% YoY. Last month, in July, these same markets were up 0.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2025 08:09:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Another 11-Month Low For Rates, But Just Barely

To their credit, most mortgage lenders did an admirable job of aggressively pricing-in the bond market rally after last Friday's jobs report. Many mortgage market pros repeat the phrase "stairs down, escalator up" when it comes to the pace at which lenders change rates. The idea is that lenders are quicker to raise rates than cut them, but this clearly wasn't the case this time.
...
But gains are gains, and the small improvement brings the average top tier 30yr fixed rate to another 11-month low. [30 year fixed 6.28%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August.

• At 10:00 AM: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National) for March 2025.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2025 03:05:00 PM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Were Unchanged in August

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were flat in August compared to July. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) was unchanged at 207.4, representing a 1.7% increase from the same period last year. The seasonal adjustment softened the results for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values increased more than typically seen for the month. The non-adjusted price in August increased by 1.0% compared to July, which now makes the unadjusted average price 1.8% higher year over year. The long-term move on average for non-seasonally adjusted values is a rise of 0.1% in August, demonstrating that last month’s unadjusted gains were larger than typically seen.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices were unchanged in August (seasonally adjusted) and were up 1.7% YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2025 12:51:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: September ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

House Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 1.1% year-over-year in August, unchanged from 1.1% YoY in July.

• The ICE Home Price Index shows prices firming slightly in August, with the annual home price growth rate holding at +1.1% in July, pausing after a streak of seven monthly declines

• Prices rose by +0.03% in the month, and while still cool, that marks the first single month growth since April, representing a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +0.4%

• 85% of markets saw firmer prices in August than they did in July, with the uptick driven by a combination of slightly lower mortgage rates and improved affordability alongside a modest pullback in for-sale inventory

• Annual growth among single-family residences held steady at +1.4% YoY, while condo prices are now down -1.9%, marking further deterioration from -1.7% in July

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2025 11:58:00 AM

Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch.

In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.

In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy.  However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching - especially immigration.

Here is some of the data I'm watching.  

Housing:  Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.

This graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau.  Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are down 3% year-over-year.

Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.  An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.   Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020.  I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.  Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.

The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.  I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates.

There are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.

Yield Curve: The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator.  I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).

Here is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976.

 

The yield curve reverted to normal a year ago and is currently positive at 0.59.  If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming.

Click here for interactive graph at FRED.

Heavy Truck (and Vehicle Sales): Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales.  This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales were at 422 thousand SAAR in August, down from 442 thousand in July, and down 15.7% from 501 thousand SAAR in August 2024.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales have been a little soft recently.

Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".  Then sales were depressed in May and June.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.   This is more of a concurrent indicator than heavy trucks. 

Light vehicle sales in August (16.07 million SAAR) were down 2.9% from the sales rate in July, and up 6.2% from August 2024. (Note: Sales in August were boosted due to the expiring EV credit).

Unemployment: Two other concurrent indicators are the unemployment rate (using the "Sahm Rule") and weekly unemployment claims.

Here is a graph of the Sahm rule from FRED since 1959.  The Sahm rule is a measure of changes in the unemployment rate. It compares the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate (U3) to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

The Sahm Rule was at 0.23 percentage points in August. 

 If this increases to 0.5 it will suggest a possible recession.  

Note that this increased to 0.56 in August 2024, but Dr. Sahm (and I) argued this was not indicating a recession.

And weekly unemployment claims always rise sharply at the beginning of a recession (other events - like hurricane Katrina - can cause a temporary spike in weekly claims).

As I noted earlier, I'm not sure how to estimate the economic damage caused by these tariffs and other policies.   The economy is clearly slowing due to policy.

There are also boycotts of U.S. goods and less international tourism based on both the tariffs and the inflammatory rhetoric of the current administration.  

None of these indicators are suggesting a recession.  For now, I'll focus on the leading indicators (especially housing) and I'll update this post monthly while I'm on recession watch.  

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall, and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

Inventory is now up 35.6% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 20.5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 saw a larger than normal increase in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 20.4% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 22.4%), and down 10.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 10.3%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, and it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of September 5th, inventory was at 847 thousand (7-day average), compared to 861 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2025 07:10:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of September 7, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 9 and DOW futures are up 82 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $61.92 per barrel and Brent at $65.60 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $69, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.16 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.23 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.07 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2025 08:09:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which measures seasonally adjusted month to-month rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain, fell 0.5% in August 2025 from July 2025, its fourth decline in the past five months. Still, the index remains relatively strong: since 2008, it’s been higher than it was in August less than 15% of the time.
emphasis added

Rail intermodal volumes are closely tied to port activity (especially in the west) and the consumer side of the economy. In August, U.S. rail intermodal shipments were up 0.5% over last year. Average weekly intermodal volume in August 2025 was 284,316 containers and trailers, the most for any month since May 2021 and the most for August since 2018.
...
Meanwhile, year-over-year total U.S. rail carloads rose 0.7% in August 2025 over August 2024, marking six consecutive monthly gains. Eleven of the 20 major carload categories tracked by the AAR saw gains in August, the sixth straight month in which at least half the categories saw increases. Total carloads averaged 230,184 per week in August 2025, the most for any month since October 2022. In 2025 through August, total carloads were up 2.5%, or nearly 192,000 carloads, over last year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in July; Up 1.4% Year-over-Year

• What will happen with House Prices?

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.