by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level

Elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and ongoing supply-side challenges continued to act as a drag on builder confidence in August, as sentiment levels remain in a holding pattern at a low level.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in August, down one point from July, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 and 34 since May.

“Affordability continues to be the top challenge for the housing market and buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop to move forward,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “Builders are also grappling with supply-side headwinds, including ongoing frustrations with regulatory policies connected to developing land and building homes.”

“Housing affordability is central to the outlook for economic growth and inflation,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Given a slowing housing market and other recent economic data, the Fed’s monetary policy committee should return to lowering the federal funds rate, which will reduce financing costs for housing construction and indirectly help mortgage interest rates.”

In further signs of a soft housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August, down from 38% in July. This share has remained at 37% or 38% for the past three months. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in August, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
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The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point in August to a level of 35 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 43. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 22 but remains at a very low level.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 44, the Midwest gained one point to 42, the South dropped one point to 29 and the West declined one point to 24.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 37.7% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 was a larger than normal increase in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 23.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 24.0%), and down 9.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 10.1%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, and it appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of August 15th, inventory was at 860 thousand (7-day average), compared to 859 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 07:16:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 10 and DOW futures are up 72 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $62.66 per barrel and Brent at $65.61 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $78, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are down about 19% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.40 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.31 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 09:01:00 AM

From Goldman:

On net, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +0.2%. We left our past quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%.
emphasis added [August 15th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 15, unchanged from August 7 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.0 percent to 2.2 percent, while the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 7.3 percent to 6.6 percent. [August 15th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

• August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

----- Monday, August 18th -----
10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, August 19th -----
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, down from 1.321 million SAAR in June.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2025

----- Wednesday, August 20th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of July 29-30

----- Thursday, August 21st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 226 thousand from 224 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.92 million SAAR for July.

----- Friday, August 22nd -----
10:00 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook and Framework Review, At the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in July, down 0.3% from June’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.1% from a year earlier. By broad region, the YOY % increase in median sales prices in the Northeast and Midwest should be a bit over 5%, while median sales prices in both the South and the West should be little changed from a year ago.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month. Last year, the NAR reported sales in July 2024 at 3.98 million SAAR.

There is also an update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that the key stories for existing homes are that inventory has increased sharply while sales are essentially flat compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure. And there are significant regional differences too.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in May and will likely be lower year-over-year in the June report compared to May (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 3.9%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.7%, and in May up 2.3%.

And the May Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in March, April and May. March closing prices include some contracts signed in January.

So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. At 104.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in July was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.5% is 2.1% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was slightly below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased to 104.0. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was slightly above consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. ... The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.5% in July.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.4% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in July were at expectations and the previous two months were revised up.