by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,000 to 235,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 07:37:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 239 thousand, up from 247 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 12:00 PM, Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 01:00:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

I’ve rearranged these looks at local data with closed sales first, new listings second and active inventory at the end.

I’ve also spelled Raleigh correctly!
...
In May, sales in these early reporting markets were down 3.9% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 11:22:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (unchanged from 3.5% YoY in April), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (unchanged from 3.0%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.8% (unchanged from 2.8%). 

Core PCE is for April was up 2.5% YoY, down from 2.7% in March.  

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 08:53:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.5% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2025.

Services were up 3.7% YoY as of May 2025, unchanged from 3.7% YoY in April.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in May, up from 3.3% YoY in April.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were unchanged YoY as of May 2025, up from -0.4% YoY in April.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.3% YoY in May, up from 0.2% YoY in April.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through May) and housing from the PCE report (through April)

Shelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.0% in April. Housing (PCE) was up 4.2% YoY in April, down from 4.3% in March.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% YoY in May.  This key measure has been at or below the Fed's target for 9 of the last 13 months.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in May and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.3 percent as both of its major components, the index for food at home and the index for food away from home also rose 0.3 percent in May. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.0 percent in May as the gasoline index fell over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.2-percent increase in April. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, personal care, and education. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in May.

The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was slightly below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 12.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 6, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 12.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 23 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 20 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications. Treasury rates saw some movement during the week, which resulted in additional opportunities for borrowers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The rate for 15-year fixed rate loans and FHA loans saw declines last week, while the 30-year fixed rate was largely unchanged. Purchase applications were 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace, continuing to show strength compared to a year ago. Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.93 percent from 6.92 percent, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 13% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased but remained very low.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2025 07:45:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 2.5% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 2.9% YoY).

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2025 02:44:00 PM

Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now.  But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.

The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Biden only served one term.

Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.

There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.   There was a pandemic related recession in 2020.

First, here is a table for private sector jobs for each term. (Blue for Democrats, Red for Republicans)

Term	Private Sector Jobs Added (000s)
Biden	14,327
Clinton 1	10,875
Clinton 2	10,104
Obama 2	9,924
Reagan 2	9,351
Carter	9,039
Reagan 1	5,363
Obama 1	1,889
GHW Bush	1,507
Trump 2	5071
GW Bush 2	453
GW Bush 1	-822
Trump 1	-2,178
1Through 4 months

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph is for private employment only.

Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,979,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 369,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,813,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue).  During President Trump's terms (Orange), the economy has lost 1,671,000 private sector jobs.

 A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.  Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. 

The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).  However, the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs).  During Mr. Trump's terms, the economy lost 536,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic).

And a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs increased have increased the most during Biden's term (mostly state and local employment), ahead of the number during Reagan's 2nd term.  Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term.

Term	Public Sector Jobs Added (000s)
Biden	1,813
Reagan 2	1,438
Carter	1,304
Clinton 2	1,242
GHW Bush	1,127
GW Bush 1	900
GW Bush 2	844
Clinton 1	692
Obama 2	447
Trump 2	11
Reagan 1	-24
Trump 1	-537
Obama 1	-710
1Through 4 months

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2025 11:55:00 AM

The Consumer Price Index for May is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.5% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.9% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.25% increase in May core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.89% (vs. +2.9% consensus). We expect a 0.17% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.4%) and but sharply lower energy prices (-1.2%). ...

Going forward, the impact of tariffs will likely provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, and we expect monthly core CPI inflation of around 0.35% over the next few months. Our forecast reflects a sharp acceleration in most core goods categories but limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the near term. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the auto, housing rental, and labor markets. We expect year-over-year core CPI inflation of +3.5% and core PCE inflation of +3.6% in December 2025.

From BofA:

For the May CPI report, we forecast headline CPI rose by 0.2% m/m (0.16% unrounded) which would push the y/y rate up a tenth to 2.4%. Core inflation, meanwhile, likely will print at a firm 0.2% m/m (0.24% unrounded). This would result in the y/y rate increasing from 2.8% to 2.9%. We expect to see more signs of tariffs driving prices higher, but favorable seasonal factors for autos and declines in certain services categories will keep a lid on the top line inflation numbers.

Note that month-to-month inflation was soft in May and June 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in both headline and core inflation since January 2024.

The circled area is the change for last May and June when inflation was soft. So even somewhat benign readings over the next two months will push up year-over-year inflation. Then the tariff related inflation will start to kick in.