by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2025 09:52:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year in March

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.30% (a -3.5% annual rate), This was the first MoM decrease since January 2023.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 6 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 6.3% from the recent peak, Tampa is down 2.6% from the peak, and Denver down 1.9%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.4% Annual Gain in March 2025

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual return for March, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8%, down from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8% increase in March, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.5% and 5.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices saw slight upward trends in March, posting gains of 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index recorded a 0.01% increase and the 20-City Composite Index presented a -0.1% decrease.

“Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery. Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.01% in March (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.1% (SA) in March.

The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in March.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 4.8% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 4.1% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 3.4% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were lower than expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 06:48:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of May 25, 2025

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 7.8% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.  The consensus is for the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index to increase 4.5% YoY, unchanged from 4.5% YoY in February.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 63 and DOW futures are up 402 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.46 per barrel and Brent at $64.72 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $78, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 21% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.13 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.56 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.43 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 12:44:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in April.

There were several key stories for April:

• Sales NSA are down YoY through April, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! Ouch.

• Sales SA were down YoY for the 3rd consecutive month and 40 of the last 44 months.

• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (excluding one month near the start of the pandemic).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.

Sales at 4.00 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were below the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was very close (as usual).

Sales averaged close to 5.4 million SAAR for the month of April in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.

Also, months-of-supply for April was above pre-pandemic levels for the period 2017-2019 and the highest for April since 2016.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase over the next few months.

Months in red are areas that are seeing 5+ months of supply now and might see price pressures later this summer.
...
More local data coming in June for activity in May!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 10:29:00 AM

Memorial Day is about remembering those that in the words of Abraham Lincoln, “gave the last full measure of devotion” in defending our nation so “that this government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”.

Today I’m thinking of my distant relative, James Hoey (Jan 14, 1842 – Aug 13, 1864) who fought for the Union during the Civil War and gave the ultimate sacrifice at the age of 22. Thank you, James!

My family has fought in every major American war. For example, my 4th Great Grandfather, William Marks (1749 – 1824) fought in the revolutionary war. His son, my 3rd Great Grandfather, William Marks, Jr. was a Brigadier General during the war of 1812 – and went on the serve as a U.S. Senator from the State of Pennsylvania.

We must also remember what they all fought for: America’s core value is the rule of law rooted in the U.S. Constitution. We are a Nation of Laws, not of men.  

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.6% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 26.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  

Usually, inventory is up about 15% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 32.4% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 32.7%), and down 15.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 15.6%). 

This is the highest level since 2019.

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of May 23rd, inventory was at 787 thousand (7-day average), compared to 767 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2025 08:12:00 AM

This week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY, I noted:

On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 2.7% from March and are now down 3.0% from the June 2024 peak. This is less than the normal seasonal increase in the median price for April.

Seasonally, median prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May).

And seasonally, prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December). 

Here is a table of the seasonal percentage increases from January to April, from April to June, and from January to June (the usual seasonal peak), over the last several years.

The last row shows the seasonal decline from June to January of the following year.  

In 2020, prices continued to increase in the 2nd half of the year and didn't peak seasonally until October.  And prices only declined slightly in the 2nd half of 2021.

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Jan to Apr	7.1%	7.1%	7.7%	12.2%	11.6%	6.9%	7.4%	5.2%
Apr to Jun	6.2%	6.9%	2.6%	7.7%	4.6%	6.3%	5.0%	NA
Jan to Jun	13.7%	14.4%	10.6%	20.8%	16.8%	13.7%	12.8%	NA
Jun to Jan	-8.9%	-6.7%	3.1%	-3.4%	-12.8%	-7.7%	-7.8%	NA

The 2025 increase in median prices from January to April was less than the normal seasonal increase.

Normally we'd expect median prices to increase about 6% to 7% over the next three months, before declining in the 2nd half of the year.  With more and more inventory, and economic uncertainty, the seasonal increase from April to June will probably be less than 6% this year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY

• New Home Sales Increase to 743,000 Annual Rate in April

• "How do you grade the Spring housing market?"

• In Q1 2025, 19% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

• California Home Sales "Retreat" in April; New Listings "Surge"

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, May 26th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 7.8% decrease in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.  The consensus is for the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index to increase 4.5% YoY, unchanged from 4.5% YoY in February.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

----- Wednesday, May 28th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of May 6-7, 2025

----- Thursday, May 29th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 225 thousand, down from 227 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2025 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.3% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the advance estimate of -0.3%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in the index.

----- Friday, May 30th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.5% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 50.8.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2025 07:05:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	306✅	368	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2024 (previous pandemic low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths were above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are below the goal for several weeks.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 22nd:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is moving towards the lows last May.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".