by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 07:54:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 218 thousand, down from 222 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.1, down from 49.0 in March.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus expectation is for light vehicle sales to be 16.8 million SAAR in April, down from 17.8 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The WardsAuto estimate is for sales of 17.4 million SAAR in April.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 12:45:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.01% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in March. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.0% in March, down from up 3.4% YoY in February. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...

As of March, 25 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.9), Oregon (-1.6%), Arkansas (-1.6%), Delaware (-1.3%), Idaho (-1.2%) and Oklahoma (-1.2%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 10 of the 19 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:30:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in March, down from 4.2% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in March, down slightly from 4.3% in February and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 3.1%
Core PCE Prices: 3.5%
Core minus Housing: 3.4%

Note: It is likely there is still some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:15:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March:

Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $134.5 billion (0.7 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $136.6 billion in March. Personal saving was $872.3 billion in March and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.9 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for March increased 2.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The March PCE price index increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.7 percent YoY in February, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6 percent YoY, down from 3.0 percent in January, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and PCE were above expectations.

Inflation was below expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jumped 6.1% in March

Pending home sales increased 6.1% in March – the greatest month-to-month increase since December 2023 (+7.0%) – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast experienced month-over-month losses in transactions, while the Midwest, South and West saw gains, which were most substantial in the South. Year-over-year, contract signings grew in the Midwest but fell in the Northeast, South and West – with the Northeast undergoing the greatest decrease.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – augmented 6.1% to 76.5 in March. Year-over-year, pending transactions lessened by 0.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable build-up of potential home buyers, fueled by ongoing job growth."
...
The Northeast PHSI dropped 0.5% from last month to 62.5, down 3.0% from March 2024. The Midwest index expanded 4.9% to 77.7 in March, up 1.4% from the previous year.

The South PHSI soared 9.8% to 94.1 in March, down 0.4% from a year ago. The West index climbed 4.8% from the prior month to 58.6, down 2.0% from March 2024.
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in April and May.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports. ...

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.
emphasis added

PCE increased at a 1.8% annual rate, and residential investment increased at a 1.3% rate. The advance Q1 GDP report, with 0.3% annualized decrease, was below expectations.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 62,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”
emphasis added

This was well below the consensus forecast of 130,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 130,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates were little changed last week with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.89 percent. Mortgage application activity, particularly for home purchases, continues to be subdued by broader economic uncertainty and signs of labor market weakness, dropping to the slowest pace since February,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Even with the spring homebuying season underway, purchase applications decreased, as conventional and VA applications saw declines of 6 percent and 4 percent, respectively. With slowly-increasing housing inventory in many markets and first time homebuyers still in the mix, FHA purchase applications fared better with only a slight decline. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of last year’s pace.

Added Kan, “Refinance activity dipped again, as mortgage rates remained close to 7 percent, and borrowers hold out for a bigger decline in rates. Given the pullback in refinancing, the average loan size for refinances declined to just under $290,000, the lowest level in three months.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.89 percent from 6.90 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 3% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October 2023 but is 3% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased and remained very low.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 130,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 155,000 added in March.

• At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2025 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.4% annualized in Q1, down from 2.4% in Q4.

9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, down from 47.6 in March.

• At 10:00 AM, Personal Income and Outlays, March 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.2% YoY.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 03:32:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: March 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With a slightly less‐packed event calendar and as‐yet unclear impacts of evolving federal policies rippling thru international and domestic markets, visitation saw a ‐7.8% YoY decline as the destination hosted approximately 3.39 million visitors in March.

Rotation cycles helped convention attendance in March as the destination hosted roughly 534k attendees for the month, up 10.2% YoY, reflecting in part the calendar impact of the in‐rotation of the Healthcare Information & Management Systems Society conference (48k attendees) which was held elsewhere last year.

Occupancy reached 82.9%, down ‐2.4 pts with Weekend occupancy of 90.8% (down ‐1.0 pts) and Midweek occupancy of 79.7% (down ‐2.5 pts). ADR for the month reached $184 (+3.1% YoY) with RevPAR of $152 (+0.2% YoY).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 7.8% compared to last March.  Visitor traffic was down 8.4% compared to March 2019.

Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 10.4% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was up 10.2% compared to March 2024, and down 17.8% compared to March 2019.  

YTD convention traffic is down 5.8% compared to 2019.